WCOOP Deep Run Hand History Review with Andrew Brokos (Part 4)
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loxxii
In the hand where you completed the BB with Q4s for pot odds, would you make that call vs an EP or MP raiser as well or does the fact that the button’s range is wider put you over the top? Earlier today, I folded 65s in the BB with 20bbs effective vs an EP raise. Now I think that may have been a mistake.
florianm1
Q4s at 11:30
I see your point about the odds. If we look at the BTNs min raise it has to work 42.5% of the time to be BE with any two cards. Meaning the SB and the BB need to defend about 57.5% of the time combined to stop him from doing this. As the SB is not closing the action he is defending clearly tighter and more with 3betting then with flat calling.
Therefore i clearly see that Q43 is a defend here in the BB. But, to me it seems that Q4s here is a better defend as a 3bet/bluff instead of a flat call as it hits only 23% of the time a flop with decent playability. Meaning most of the time we need to make a play on certain board textures we know that do not hit villain to make it a profitable call pre.
I would argue Q2s-Q7s are 3bets and Q8s+ are reasonable flat calls.
cheers
Foucault
Certainly less against the EP raise. You have to think about what’s likely to happen postflop. I want to have a reasonable chance of winning at showdown with any pair (even a 4, though less so), and I want good fold equity if I play a draw aggressively or otherwise choose to bluff, so I don’t want Villain’s range to be too rich in big pairs. But against someone I know to be opening very wide from EP, I might call this or something similar.
Foucault
So with regard to the 65s, you have to think it will be profitable for you to check-shove most of the time you flop a pair or good draw. Again, this will depend on how wide your opponent’s range is. Calling light out of the BB is just another way, in addition to 3betting, of playing back at wide openers. You’re just waiting until after the flop to make your moves.
Foucault
I’m thinking more about the odds I’m getting to see the flop than about the odds a fold would offer Villain on his steal, though of course the two are related.
If you’re getting 5:1 on a call, winning 23% of the time postflop is probably sufficient. Of course it depends how much you win when ahead and lose when behind, and you don’t always win those cases, and sometimes you win after missing the flop entirely. That’s where playing poker comes in. You have to assess your postflop skill relative to that of your opponent.
You’re going to find yourself with an extremely weak 3betting range if you start 3betting every hand you’d have the odds to call with that doesn’t tend to flop very well. Against such a range, your opponent could justifiably call all of 3-bets, in which case you’ve got the same problem (rarely flopping well) in a larger pot. 🙂
Fergz
Andrew around the 18mins with AJdd when you are betting 777 into 2310 on the flop you said you are doing this with your entire range but are you really doing this with your strongest hands sseing as there are flush and straight draw possibilities? would you not want to get value and charge draws? it seems like we are giving excellent odds for them to call?