One of the biggest leaks that I’ve observed in poker players, even relatively good and experienced poker players, is understanding when to bet to extract value and when to check because your hand has showdown value. There is a very fine line between the two, and knowing how to walk it could make the difference between winning a tourney and watching from the rail. In this article, I am going to walk you through a few hands that I have played and my thought process behind them. The inspiration for this article comes from a hand I played today at the Niagara falls Casino. It was a cash game, but the same principals apply to tournaments.
I was playing in a $5-$10 cash game and picked up 69hh under the gun. I originally sat with the max, $1000 but had doubled to $2000. My plan was to not fold any suited 2 gappers because my table was pretty fishy and I wanted to play pots. So, I opened UTG to $30. UTG+1 made it $125 and it was flatted by 2 other people so I decide to peel a flop.
The flop came Qs 8h 5h. Not a bad flop at all for my hand so I check. UTG+1, the preflop re-raiser, leads out for $200 and the the other two fellas fold. I make it $425 and he calls. The turn comes the 2h, making my flush. I lead out for $460 and he calls. The river is the Qc. I now decide to check.
While I think there is some value in betting here, if I check he may decide to bluff this pot with the Ah because he thinks it’s the only way he can win it. He does bet the river putting me all in. Of course, I call and win the pot.
Now, the interesting part of this hand is what he was holding: KK with the Kh. This is a perfect example of where a person should check the river because his hand has some showdown value. But the only hands he is getting a call from have KK beat. There is absolutely zero reason to bet the KK here. I guess it’s possible that I pay his river bet off with JJ or TT, but for the amount of times I’m holding these hands and do not release it to this bet makes this a very –EV bet. 95% of the time his river bet is called he will be throwing his KK into the muck. A perfect example of when a hand has showdown value and should be checked as opposed to trying to extract value out of an opponent with a bet.
Let me give you an example of where you can try to extract some value on the river as opposed to checking to get to showdown. In a tournament the blinds are 500/1000 I get into a battle with a big stack. MP opens a pot to 2250 and I have KcQc on the button. We both are about 65BB deep. I flat his raise and we get to the flop heads up.
The flop comes Q42 rainbow. He leads out for 4900 and I make the call. The turn comes a 7. He checks it over to me. I am fairly confident I have the best hand here so I go ahead and fire a bet of 9200. He calls this bet. The river comes a 2 making a pair on the board but no straight or flush was completed. He checks to me.
At this point it’s time to decide if I should bet for value or just go ahead and check and get to showdown. I have to decide what hands he could be holding that would call a bet from me that I beat. I also need to think about what hands he is holding that will call a bet from me that I lose to. I decide that there are just too many hands he could be holding that will call a bet that I beat for me to pass up this value opportunity.
I am pretty sure the only hand he could be holding that beats me is AQ but I discount it because I think he double barrels with this hand. I really don’t think he plays KK or AA this conservatively. So, given all of these dynamics, I think it’s +EV to try and extract some value out of this hand. I think he could pay me with a lesser Q or even a pocket pair JJ or less. I make a bet of 29500. He snap calls and rolls over QJ. A great example of where value was extracted as opposed to just getting to showdown with a hand that definitely has showdown value.
I think this is a part of the game that comes with time and experience. But I think it’s a paramount skill to learn if you want to become a successful tournament poker player. It’s pots like these that just make a huge difference in the progression of a tournament. In addition to this article, Wein did a TPE Theory video on river play that addresses this concept. Work on this dynamic of a tourney and I’m sure you will see a difference in the results of your tournaments.
JDOG1645
Great read Casey……..what did the guy with KK say when he saw the power of 69 crushing his KK 🙂 I bet your table image was insane!
Metasploit
Awesome. Been waiting for articles from the Pros for a few months now. Great stuff Casey 10*’s
goroyalblue
good read. Thanks Casey!!
dbt
great post bud, its been a area i myself have been working real hard on improving pretty awesome read though!! hope to see more ,
YoungGunKid
Solid solid post Casey, was a great mind refresher,helping me to remember to work on these tricky and very costly spots that often come up!
kalamazoorob
Thank you for this….top level information from a top level thinker.
lespaulgman
I really like the article. There is a tremendous amount to think about in this, a lot more than is evident on the first read. Great to get this kind of perspective.
kbor
Stop being so laxadasial!
drgnarn
good article
xtremeungar
Awesomely clever!!
dbt
i cant tell u just how much this very post as improved my game greatttttttt post bud !!!
bigdogpckt5s
Thanks for the reply’s guys. Glad you all liked it. Im working on a follow up video on this exact topic. Look for that in my next installment of theory.
xxsosickxx
Very good read! Quick ?, when multi-tabling mtts at what point(#of tbls)do you think this level of thinking starts to suffer? Thx BigDog
praetor
Good article! This is an area of my game I need to work on.
johnedrama1
You actually shouldnt be concerned with what hands he will call with that are worse only if your value betting range is ahead of his calling range. Darvin Moon was a perfect example of this in the me although he had some reason to see the other hand, but you can never know if you will be called. You also didn’t address if your opp is capable of bluff raising you. The kq is obv a b/f so against a good opp whos capable of a bluff raise it might be better to check behind in some spots imo
jaymillz1313
I just want to state that I do not believe the player with KK has any showdown value in this situation. If you have a standard c/r flop range your crushing his calling range(assuming you havent been hyper aggro) once the heart gets there on the turn. I think if he is checking back here he is giving up. I think you played the hand well but I dont think he can call the turn in this spot vs most peoples range unless you have been really spewy. Just my honest opinion.
jaymillz1313
A little deeper on the subject, your c/r range if you are like most is sets, two pair hands and FD’s. Obviously you could have some air but i doubt it in a multiway pot when the aggressor has defined his range so much.
Air_Apparent
This, right here, may be where I’m leaving the (or losing) the most money at the table. I need to take more time and think about what I can and cannot be called with on the river. Walking that fine line is paramount and I believe I have built some pretty bad habits in this spot.
Houligan420
i agree this is going to take some time to master this skill, but once you do , the extra chips will be quite beneficial
bitdash
good article, clearly explain the concept in simple way. Gonna check out Wein’s River play video.
kid_fro21
Just wondering about the second example being the villain. Do you play it the same way or make the fold on the river with the range you on the button are on?
Garfieldno
Amazing read 🙂 Thanks!
JustALurker
Absolutely great article for me to read. It seems like such a simple task to differentiate between value and showdown value but is often lost in the moment. I have bet a river so many times when I had a good hand while not even realizing that I am only getting called by a better hand. This is definitely an area where I need to improve and love to see articles like this that bring it out into the spotlight for me. There is huge value to win and to be saved by understanding this concept.