9 Responses to “TPE Theory: The Mathematics of MTTs (Part 4)”

  2. loxxii

    Videos like this make me realize that I would much rather be a math student than a math teacher.

    This is part of our 8th grade curriculum, but you have to stop every 5 minutes to remind kids how to simplify fractions or than 8 times 7 is 56. Sigh.

    I really hope I get good enough at poker so that I can go back to being a student and never have to be a teacher again unless I get to choose the student.

  3. duggs

    i love this series. one question i had that isnt super maths related. with ICM calcs we are essentially assuming that everyones stack size is the only factor in determining the monetary value of their stack. is there a way to weight the rankings to account for other factors, ie if we have like 3 stacks who are actively going to ante out can we account for the increased likelihood that they will take 7-9th when they get to the final table with 15bb. or that a reg with 40bb even when the average is 65bb still has a far better chance of finishing higher than other stacks. i feel like there should be a way to weight this according to their expected ROI (both positive and negative) but i havent seen it done before.

  4. Merby

    In general, ICM was constructed in a way to avoid any subjective factors. This was likely done in an attempt to give you a sober second opinion without allowing people to retroactively justify their actions as being attributed to skill factors.

    That said, when you calculate the ICM of the chip stacks, you can certainly include a secondary weighting for each player in the tournament as some sort of indication of whether or not they are more or less likely to do well. Just be sure that the sum of these weightings among all the players adds to 1. So it there are n players remaining, this weighting would be 1/n for an average player and slightly larger for a better player and slightly smaller for a worse player. Just be sure not to go overboard — these numbers shouldn’t be nearly as big an influence as their respective chip stacks.

  5. duggs

    awesome, that makes heaps of sense. the reason i ask is primed by this article
    https://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/selling-yourself-short-why-chipev-is-sometimes-overrated-part-1/

    arent subjective factors important? i can see the issue of justifying actions after the fact but wouldnt they give a more accurate value when weighing a decision?

    like we are far more likely to be able to exert our edge at deeper effective stacks (or even deeper stacks in tournaments since the risk of busto allows us to exert more pressure on others). which is why the structure is often the cap on the expected ROI for top players. so doesnt this tie in to our willingness to take marginal spots with a 20bb stack on the ft bubble, since ICM wise it should be a fold but being able to have a deeper effective stack and ICM likely underestimates our edge (assuming we are better than the competition)?

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