16 Responses to “TPE Theory: The Mathematics of MTTs (Part 3)”

  1. vzangjack

    Between 7:30 and 9:30 you make the EV calculation of the J8ss hand where you shove 20bb’s.

    You argue that when you shove you only win the bb (0.7*1), but don’t we also win our own sb? It is already invested before you shove, so I’d say we win (0.7*1,5) with the shove.

    And when we shove we shove 19,5bb’s eff, because the sb is already in the pot, whether we shove or we don’t.

    Refreshing stuff nonetheless, Keep up the good work!

  2. Merby

    It all depends on the perspective we choose to take. I was making the calculations based on how much our stack changed from the stack size we had before we put in the small blind. Notice that when we calculate the stack when we fold, I say we lose 0.5 bb, rather than having a change of 0. If we had done the EV calculations based on our stack after we had posted the sb, a fold would have 0 EV.

    Either perspective is fine, so long as you are consistent to use that perspective in all 3 actions.

  3. loxxii

    In the JJ hand, is there a way we can change our raise size to increase the EV of raising to $68? I really want to raise here because putting the decision back on him makes the hand much easier to play.

    If he folds, great.
    If he calls, then we can bet good turns and fold bad ones.
    If he shoves, we can fold.

    If we just call the flop bet, we dont know anything else about his hand if he bets the turn and it’s going to cost us more than $75 (difference between the missed $125 and the $50 call) to find out.

    I could be wrong here, but it seems that although calling the flop is the best EV decision now, it increases the likelihood of us making a future (more expensive) mistake later.

  4. Merby

    Yes, we can certainly try to compute the EV of a smaller raise size. We need to know or estimate his hand range facing a smaller range (a smaller raise size will likely fold out fewer hands, so it will be larger than his range when we shove).

    My goal in the hand was to show how to carry out those sorts of computations, not to simply solve that one situation. Every extra option you give yourself leads to a new EV computation, so you have to find a balance between only considering realistic options and performing an exhaustive analysis.

    In this case, you can choose one intermediate raise size (perhaps $68 as you say) and estimate his calling hand range and 3-betting hand range to find your equity against those ranges. Carry through the EV calculations in that case and you can then compare the result to the other options (fold, call, or shove).

  5. Redscare

    I thought the same thing. That is an interesting way to look at it, although it seems like it adds an extra step or two. Either way, thanks for explaining.

  6. stiansy1

    Great series professor 🙂

    I cant seem to get the number of 122 hands, which is the range of villain given his preflop and flop action. my hands sum up to 118. Also the shove calling range of 30 hands.

  7. Tracy Marrow

    Like stiansy1 I can’t get the 122 hands either (25mins): for the range as listed I have 118 also. (I get 172 when I include + on the off-suit hands)
    Speaking more generally is there a reason why a range like this may include ATo but not AJo, and if there is what might it be?
    Questions for anyone to try! Thanks.

  8. Tittlebutter

    This isn’t one of those series you can watch while playing an MTT or two. Had to bust out the notebook. Doing the calculations along with you certainly helps in understanding.

    Thanks for a great series!

  9. shayashi77

    Thanks for the video. Very helpful. The text at the bottom of the screen is hard to see at times. Especially with the play/time cursor bar getting in the way. Keeping your text just above the bottom will improve the viewing experience.

    Thanks again!

  11. frodebass

    Thanks for a great series!
    I have a question regarding the JJ calculations.
    How can you estimate EV in calling a flop bet or raising his bet.
    I understand the all in EV’s because then the action is over and it’s all down to basic EV of the hands at that point with two cards to come.
    But if calling $50 with JJ, you can’t really estimate the EV in the hand, as EV calculations given by pokerstove are all in EV caluclations.
    Everything might change on the nest card as we have money left to bet on future streets.
    Would it not be better to simply ffactor the parts of his range we are currently ahead of in these calulations?
    Forgive me if this is actually what you have already done, but I think this need some clearing up.
    I mean if we call $50, then we are ahead of so and so percent of his range at the current time in the hand, thus giving a calulated dollar value on the call.

    Anyhow, great series, and like I said, sorry if this is already what you did, just a bit confused here.

  12. valancius

    Great vid. Loving it.
    But the last calculation where SB and BB calls, i think that BB call (25%) is now wrong because he is not just simply calling but he is OVERcalling so it cannot be again equil to 25% like normal shove call, it must be lower or im missing something?

  13. capulcu31

    I have a question:
    At minute ~20, the 33 vs 10bb vs 25bb hand:
    you say:
    p7 * V7 = 0.4 * 0.25 * 0.15 * 5bb —- 5bb win from sidepot, but shouldn´t it be 15 bb win?
    the sb 10 bb triples up 3 *10 = 30
    rest is 2 * 15 bb!

  15. Arsenal1

    Really enjoying this series. Stupid question but I cant figure out how you got $68 on the EV Call @ 28mins. I multiplied .57 by 150 and then multiplied .43 by -50 and then added the two which was 85.5 plus minus 21.5 which was $64?

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