TPE Theory: Getting Off on the Right Foot with Andrew Brokos (Part 2)
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5
TPE Theory: Getting Off on the Right Foot with Andrew Brokos (Part 2)
MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5
BadAstronaut
More good stuff – thanks Andrew, nice work.
Foucault
Thanks!
Blaz77
great stuff. learning a lot. great refresher. thanks Andrew. p.s. love thinking poker podcast! keep up the great work 🙂
Foucault
thanks!
Equinsu ocha
I tried working out the equation found at 17:19 in this video and I got a different value for the number that you have determined to be 4,896. Where did you get this number? My sister and I have both tried to break this down and neither of us came up with that number. The value that I calculated is
.5*11,648 + .5*(.16*32,282 – 10,317)=
5,824-2,575.94=3,248.06
I also found different values for the following equation about calculating required FE to make semi-bluffing > checking. My algebra is rusty so I could be making mistakes, but I was hoping that you could clear this up because I have been becoming increasingly frustrated with my number crunching during this video. Thanks a ton.
Bingo Buddy
“Equinsu ocha” and SKAHfish are both correct that the semi-bluffing calculation is wrong and should be 3,248, but the next calculation at 20:00 is also wrong! The fourth line should be:
1,864 = 11,648*F – (1 – F) * (-5,152)
1,864 = 11,648F + 5,152 + 5,152F
1,864 + 5,152 = (11,648 + 5,52) F
7,016 / 16,800 = F = 0.4176
It is better to shove than check if villain will fold 42% of the time, not 54%.
For future videos involving math, please show the calculator being used, both to aid the student and to catch frustrating errors, like the two errors I’ve already seen in the first full video I’ve watched of my subscription.
GoldenBeet
These videos are wayyyyy longer than necessary. So much rambling (which is also noticeable in your podcast). It would be nice to see some effort to be concise.
throatkillmer
I don’t think you ramble Andrew, and if you do, I don’t mind. You are the only one I watch on here so far, so keep doing what you’re doing.
SKAHfish
Hi Andrew, Great series so far. I love the comments on over used poker terms as I have fallen into this trap myself. A going back to basics series is just what I need. Lets get that back end of the inch worm walking as it is super stretched for me at the moment. (Rf
Regarding Equinsu’s comment I am too confused at how you arrive at the 928.
This could be something I have not grasped yet but I will write it out long hand, please someone correct me if I have this wrong.
Pot at turn = 11648
Our shove = 10317
Pot after shove = 21965
Pot when he calls = 32282
When shoving we have 3 possible outcomes, He folds, he calls we win, he calls we loose.
For each.
50% of the time he folds and we win what he has contributed cEVf = 0.5 x 11648 = 5824
50% of the time he calls of which 16% we win (his bet and call) = .16 (11648+10317) = 3514.4 i.e. we win what he has contributed not what we have
84% we loose our bet = .84 x 10317 = -8666.28
sum total chips on average gained when called = 0.5 x (3514.4-8666.28)= 0.5 x -5152.28 = -2576
Sum total chips gained when shoving = 5824 – 2576 = 3248
or to express another way as I am more used to with EV calcs
%fold x pot + %call we win – %call we loose
.5 x 11648 + 0.08 x 21965 – .42 x 10317
= 5824 + 1757.2 – 4333.14 = 3248.06
So if I have it correct this it is definitely plus EV to shove if we ignore implied odds of checking. note .42+.08+.5 =1 to clarify these come from he cls we win .5*.16 and he cls we loose.5*.84.
Ev check with no additional betting.
= .16 x 11648 = 1863.68
So when we make a comparison between shoving and checking with the assumptions made it is 3248 – 1863.68 = 1384.32 cEV to shove over calling.
Sorry if I have this wrong and have confused things.
Andrew keep rambling (not that i think it is rambling just talking) as this gives good in site on how to think in situations. I really do not understand Golden Beets comment.
Videos where people just say shoving this spot is not helpful. breaking down why like you do, ie what range they think villan has, what fold equity thy think they have and why or even just saying i think I have high fold equity here and not much show down equ so I am shving is way more helpful.
Even better stating how they would modify this given different cards or different opponents. This not rambling this is golden nuggets of information.
Foucault
Sorry about that. 3248 is indeed the correct EV for shoving. This was actually just an arithmetic error on my part. If you look at the equation as I have it written out at 17:24, everything through Line 3 is correct. However, the second number on Line 4 should not be 4896 but rather 2576, as you find. Thanks for catching that, and sorry for the confusion.
SKAHfish
Thanks for the reply, the series is really helping me to try and think in equity and what to do with marginal hands. I am glad of the mistake as it forced me to really understand the maths as I went over and over it. I will feel more confident now when analysing my own game. smile
BealPoker
great video! just wandering (11:21 mins in) if checking gives an EV of 1864 BUT, lets say for example, you have put 3500 chips in the pot already before this point, are you “technically” losing 1636 chips by making the check. Just thinking and curious< Thanks.
JustShrug
Whew.. My brain hurts just looking at all that math. And I believe that I’m actually pretty good at it. This just tells me there’s a whole lot more I need to learn about this game. Great info! Have to rewatch and take notes now @_@
Edz0r
My EV for entering tournaments have already increased!