5 Responses to “TPE Theory: Bluffing with Andrew Brokos (Part 5)”

  1. markconkle

    Around 37, you count the combos to remove because the rivercard is a king. You can each suited and offsuit hand as one combo, but shouldn’t the offsuit ones count as 3?

  3. Jon_Allan

    A bit of a late comment but on my second watching.
    Yes the Kd river removes three combos from each (complete) off-suit hand.
    In this case K8o should remove only two since Kd8h should have been removed preflop due to hero holding the 8h.
    Also we should not remove a combo for K7s since Kd7d should have been removed preflop due to our holding the 7d.
    So that means removing 27 (not 29) combos, rather than the 17 Andrew counted.
    —-
    All in all 63 combos should be removed right at the start due to our holding of 8h7d, so rather than 640 we should have villain start with 577.
    The flop coming Kc6s5s removes 73 combos.
    So their range for seeing /this/ flop is 504 combos.
    When the flop bet is called reducing the range as described ends up with 333 combos – Villain is calling 333/504 = 66.07% (compared to 70.94% stated in the video).
    When the turn is Ah this reduces the range by 20 to 313 combos.
    When the turn bet is called following the same reasoning in the video we can remove 111 combos to leave 202 in the range (Andrew removes 65s/65o which are two pair although I didn’t as he didn’t seem to mean to and he later refers to this possibility).
    So, villain is folding turn 108/313 = 34.50% (roughly the same as in the video).
    Our equity vs that range is ~24.5% (also very close to what we see in the video, so the simplified EV calculation and reasoning is not altered).
    When the river is the Kd their range is reduced by 27 to 175 combos.
    Against this range our equity is 13.43% (i.e with the unrealistic assumption that they check back 100% of the time).
    Villain now has this distribution of holdings:
    8 full house
    50 trip kings
    66 aces up
    9 kings and sixes
    5 Q7+ kickers
    4 J7+ kickers
    3 T7+ kickers
    2 97+ kickers
    9 87 kickers (the chops)
    3 7 kickers
    16 playing the board
    A total of 42/175 = 24% combos with no pair, so 1/3 pot bet still would be a loser targeting Q high; but 1/4 pot would be profitable if Q high folds (and just about profitable if Q high calls but J high folds since 37/175 = 21.14%; but again not if he does not fold J high either…)
    —-
    Notes on using Slice:
    1. When choosing suits for pairs in the hand range selection dialog it double counts combos until you OK and then reopen the dialog.
    2. When adding dead cards to the Range Enumerator delimit them with a comma (so for the river we would have – 8h,7d,Kc,6s,5s,Ah,Kd – otherwise it does not work.
    (Also it’s a pity one cannot then extract that range to use in the equity calculator.)

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