Sunday Big Ticket Hand History Review with Marc Alioto and Guests (Part 3)
[Total: 15 Average: 7.9/5]
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 4 | Part 5 | Part 6 | Part 7
Concepts In This Video: Bet Sizing • C-Betting • dual review • hand History • High Stakes • HUD • Late Stages • Merge Network • playing pocket pairs • Popular MTTs: Sundays • Post-flop • pre-flop
Carlos
15:00 with AJo.
I feel like 60k is better than check on this river. Look at his pair combos vs marginal draw combos that make up his flop and turn calling range. 88-TT and maybe even A7s, 87s type stuff way out number his draws. He never has offsuit straight draws. His suited straight draws that dont have at least a backdoor probably fold turn. His suited straight draws that have flush draws raise flop.
All that’s left are some marginal flush draws. I haven’t done the math, but I am guessing he has a pair combo vs a draw combo there something like 2 or 3 to 1. Honestly, I don’t even hate a smaller bet like 45k that leaves him with more of a stack if he cant resist.
Jon_Allan
The turn bet with AJo when called made the SPR for the river just over 0.72, so a river bet of anything over ~24% pot is over 1/3 of the effective stack (45,728). So I think 60K is too much if we are going to bet but not shove. We should bet something less than, but approaching this 24% pot mark in order to look more like a blocker bet – maybe even something like 27K (~1/5 Eff stack / ~15% pot). I actually like 34K as it leaves our stack at ~18bb and if villain notices that it may induce more bluff shoves. I prefer this over the check for two reasons: 1. It gets something from some hands that would insta-check-back; and 2. Checking ourselves actually gives them this same option and, even though it would be infrequent we can then only call as we do not beat anything we could remotely think of as their value range (something almost certainly <= {6x, JJ, 77, AA, KK, QQ, Jx}).
marc alioto
the fact that I block a decent number of his Fds makes me feel like he has way more value than missed draws, so I agree. Im still torn whether I think the shove is best just to rep bluffs. Sometimes I am way more likely to call a shove than a 45-60k “value bet” on river. Villain has sticky stats too. Doubt he ever folds a jack tbh, but shoving could get him off a chop. Very doubtful
I think I like a really small bet as well because we can sometimes induce villain to tool out with his bricked draws and we may get the second pair type calls.
marc alioto
great comments guys, if Im 1 tabling, I don’t think I miss the small bet. It is by far the best play for everything the two of you have said. Thanks for the help