Stop & Go: River Raise Sizing
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4 Responses to “Stop & Go: River Raise Sizing”
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Ivor Trent
Andrew
If Binafisch had bet the Q on turn and you called.
Then he checked the river, you bet and he re-raised big would you call?
Regards
Ivor
Foucault
Well I wouldn’t have called if he bet the turn, but in the scenario you describe, yes, I think it’s a call. JJ and QQ probably raise pre-flop, and KT or T8 probably don’t check-call flop.
jasonberg
Hi Andrew,
could you please name your bluffing range on the river.
I guess Tx would be a good bluffing candidate because of the blocker to the nuts, but most Tx would bet the turn.
Probably only JT and TT check behind on the turn. Would you turn them into a bluff?
On the other hand, maybe the T doesn’t matter that much, because it’s already unlikely that he calls the flop with KT or T8?
You said there are plenty of bluffing candidates, but wouldn’t you weighted too much towards bluffs in this spot, because your raise for value range on the river mainly consists of 99 and J9 after checking the turn?
Foucault
Hi Jason. These are good but big, tricky questions you’re asking. Equilibrium solutions tend to involve a lot of mixed strategies (e.g. the same hand being played multiple ways). So it’s likely that we’d want a mix of bets and checks on the turn with hands like Tx, and that Villain might be incentivized to get to the river with KT or T8 some small % of the time in order to have coverage for runouts like this. You’re broadly correct that it’s desirable to block his calling range, though, especially if he doesn’t have many straights, that will have to include sets or pairs, at which point our blockers also give us showdown value that may make the hand undesirable for bluffing. So… it’s tricky to say definitively off the top of my head that some hands are better bluffing candidates than others. I may try to do some solver work with this.
If we’re worried about having too high of a bluffing frequency, the best response to that might well to be to raise even larger, offering Villain less appealing odds on his calls to compensate. This only becomes problematic if we end up risking so much that Villain can call only with straights (ie hands that are not pure bluff-catchers) without fear of over-folding.