Part VIII: Live Hand Example from TPE Forums
This hand was originally posted here in the TournamentPokerEdge MTT Strategy Forums.
$225 Live Event at Commerce Casino. 35 players left (ITM) playing down to 15 players for Day 2. Blinds: 1k/2k/300. Hero has been at the table for less than 1 round.
Hero (85k) is in the BB with A4cc. UTG+1 (29k) limps, MP (39k) limps, Button (37k) limps, SB (120k+) completes. Hero checks.
Flop: Jd6c3c
Hero bets 6k into 12.4k, UTG+1 shoves 27k, MP overshoves for 37k. Rest of players fold.
Hero?
In my opinion, as played, this is a fold. Needing to call an additional 31k (approximately half his starting stack after the flop bet), Hero would be getting what appears to be great pot odds to make a call and perhaps knock out two players with the nut flush draw. Getting 2.65:1 on a call, Hero would only need about 38% equity to break even cEV-wise on this hand. Can’t be hard to show a profit here, right?
Using PokerStove, even the utmost optimistic scenarios I crafted – both villains having random Jx hands without clubs, one opponent having a Jack while the other had a red overpair, etc – only offered Hero 45% equity. When you run the numbers with more realistic ranges – Jxcc hands, one opponent having Jx while other has a set, one having a pair or set while the other has a flush draw – Hero breaks even at best. Some nightmare scenarios – one opponent having a set while the other has a flush draw – made Hero a 4:1 underdog to win.
The result: Hero called the 31k, UTG+1 had J8hh and MP1 had 97cc. Hero missed his outs and would later finish 19th.
Even if, for the sake of argument, Hero would break even or show a small long-run profit calling here, I would still recommend this be a fold because of tEV. From an overall tournament perspective, Hero seems to have a perfect table spot: the big stack is to his right, he himself has a sizeable stack given the structure, and a table full of limpers is a pretty good indicator that Hero has a sizeable skill edge over most his opponents. Knocking out two players doesn’t offer Hero any reasonable payout jumps with 35 players left. The only benefit to calling, really, is that Hero wins a sizeable pot perhaps 2/5 of the time. The rest of the time, however, his stack is crippled and he has no realistic chance of exploiting his tournament skill edge over the rest of the table.
In a reply to the original post, I said that I disliked how this hand was played but that I could not craft a line I liked better. Shoving preflop to hopefully try to pick up the blinds seems overly optimistic; and with the SB having your 42bb stack covered, even being called a fraction of the time would be a nightmare. With five people in the pot, I suspect I would have checked, assuming a bet would lead to more disastrous outcomes than good ones, then been fortunate when two players went all in behind me so I could fold for free. Although leading was probably the only way Hero could expect to win this pot without a showdown, just how important is winning this pot anyway?
Part IX: cEV and tEV Reconsidered
As you progress, your tEV considerations should begin to outweigh cEV in your decision-making process, especially when the highest +cEV play also has a lot of unnecessary variance and can cripple your stack or even cost you your tournament life. To summarize, long-run +cEV plays can sometimes mean short-run –tEV outcomes. In tournaments with soft fields or at tables with great dynamics, consider other sources of cEV that are less likely to cost you your whole tournament. As you progress as a player and profitable table dynamics become more apparent and frequent, be sure to weigh tEV much more heavily when faced with decisions. Ask yourself questions such as: How would a loss/win in this pot affect my ability to exploit a strategic edge over this table later? Does my current stack size command that I must acquire new chips to assure my tournament life? Which lines will most adequately balance net value with the preservation of my tournament life?
Best of luck on the felt and elsewhere.
Turbulence
thanks Chris. really good series of articles. This is something that definitely needs more consideration in the way I play.
Would it be right to assume that cEV analysis primarily comes from Cash game play where the value of chips does not change?
duggs
interesting read, Im assuming that using this argument there are also situations where you should get chips in in slightly -cEV spots in order to try preserve a tEV positive stack? (ie shoving wider right before a level jump removes alot of our fold equity/or handcuffs those behind us).
Also the utility derived from our stack depth is also a function of the tournament structure isnt it? so if this were a $50 nightly tournament and the structure gets extremely hyper very quickly would that change your decision?
MovesLikeDarvin
i wouldnt assume that it originated from cash game play, if that’s what you mean. but i would say that its most obvious application is in cash game play, and in some instances, in tournament play as well.
MovesLikeDarvin
examples where -cEV spots occur to preserve tEV could be: taking flips when short (technically, getting AK in when you know opponent has a pair has a nearly invisible losing trend); getting in marginal or somewhat negative cEV spots in rebuy periods of tournaments where your tEV is not immediately negatively affected if you lose, but positively affected if you win etc.
and YES. like i said, a great, deep structure benefits the tEV of those who can utilize the extra levels of depth. The reverse is true as well: tEV becomes less of a consideration for these players when structures are hyper and/or they do not play short stacks very well.
ShortStackJack
This has been such a great series and has come at a great time in my evolution. A few of the insights in the first two articles really drove home how I had been spewing off big stacks late in the tournament, and finishing with min cashes and bubbling.
I think in the last article, and this is what crystallized things for me, Chris pointed out that by taking slim margins on flips and speculative hands, we give away any skill advantage that we have over the remaining players. Total home run here.
markconkle
Great series! Just to play devil’s advocate, how good is your skill edge if you choose not to accept your +cEV spots? Overall, your skill edge comes because you make many +cEV decisions over a tournament, ending up with a larger chance of having a big stack when it matters. Sure, there are times when you can fold +cEV spots (bubbles come to mind), but don’t go overboard. It’s easy to lose your edge if you fail to capitalize on enough good spots.