SCOOP Tuesday Night Live Sweat with Andrew Brokos (Part 4)
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SCOOP Tuesday Night Live Sweat with Andrew Brokos (Part 4)
MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3
smallcat66
Hi, at 4.20 in the Super Tuesday, why did you shove almost 30 bbs with A3o ?.It seems very spewy and you are risking too much for too little gain.
Foucault
Hi smallcat. I understand why it might it seem that way, and I can’t even say for certain that you are wrong. However, intuition based on other situations doesn’t always apply in spots like blind vs blind where both players have very wide ranges. Although it’s not possible to solve a situation like this one definitively, because it would depend on Villain’s limping range, solutions for similar spots do exist.
Have you ever used SnapShove? If not, I highly recommend it. It provides unexploitable shoving and calling ranges for pre-flop spots, up to 25bb. According to SnapShove, not only could the SB profitably open jam A3o for 25bb (a higher risk:reward ratio than what I face here, given the extra .5bb in the pot), but in fact the BB can profitably call a 25bb SB jam with A3o.
So, I think it’s likely that shoving is +EV, though it’s possible that other options are more +EV. However, I do see downsides to all of the other options. Checking, of course, allows Villain to realize equity with the many weak hands he could limp here. Raising and folding to a shove seems bad, given that even with only our original bb in the pot, it would probably be profitable to call a shove, so folding when getting better odds isn’t appealing. And raising and calling induces shoves from hands that, even though they may technically be behind (T8s, say), are actually hands that have enough equity that we’d prefer to take the pot preflop rather than racing against them.
The truth is that this result of getting all in pre-flop would have occurred no matter what the preflop action. If V had shoved, I would have called. If V had raised, I would have shoved. Both players having an Ace in the blinds and fewer than 30bb effective is more or less a cooler.
HatteWare
This is right no matter how we perceived the villain’s range limp/call? Are we looking for fold? long term strategy? Can we become exploitable since villains know we’ll shove A3o? The good removal is the absolute answer? The fact we have position in spots very wide ranges vs very wide ranges with reasonable stack dont means we can allows Villains to “realize” his equity, since we have more control if we’ll get to showdown or not?
PETER_BINKLAGE_420
I don’t care if stuffing A3o here is +EV, it still strikes me as ridiculously high variance and punty. Running this thru holdem resources calculator, at “equilibrium” where sb and bb ranges are split between limp/shove and check/shove 27 beebs, shoving A3o as BB is very very very slightly less profitable than checking. I closed the calculator, but it was something like 1.46 vs 1.48.
Now, I doubt either of your ranges will look much like HRC’s. If we assume vovtroy is way overfolding to your shove here, shoving is something like +2.6bb cEV. I’m pulling this number out of my ass, but it’s not going to be more than the pot size, which is 2.9 bb. vovtroy is Vladimir Troyanovskiy, a live super hi roller reg, so he is probably not doing a lot of folding in an online $109 bird. Also, HRC probably underestimates the value of checking, as doesn’t take into account your having position (and perhaps a postflop skill edge) for up to 3 more streets. All these factors weigh toward checking instead of stuffing.
I cannot prove this, but risking 27 beebs and your MTT life immediately to get into a (max) +3bb cEV point in the game tree instead of risking 0 beebs to advance down the game tree from a point where you are +1.5bb cEV (perhaps more) seems like a terrible trade off to me.
smallcat66
Thanks Andrew for your great reply and explanation. Since reading and absorbing your explanation in the last few days, I have started to call the small blind shoves much lighter when in the big blind, especially if I see that they are aggressive and have been shoving light previous to this. And some of the are shoving so light so I am doing better generally now.
The thing i don’t like about calling or shoving light is the variance that’s involved. Now maybe this is why I am a losing player , but I nearly always get it in ahead for my stack but they keep calling me with their dominated aces and very often suck out on me. I suppose just because I know that I am almost certainly ahead doesn’t mean that the villain does when he calls me.