5 Responses to “Mini-WCOOP Main Event HH Review with Andrew Brokos (Part 5)”

  1. Str8_flushes

    you said giraffe made a mistake not betting any street with AQ on KJx flop in a 3 way pot, and then you did the same thing on 18:20. Against a BB defend wouldn’t that flop hit your range more often? CBet can also allow you to realize equity by likely checking thru the turn. How are these 2 hands so different?

    • markconkle

      One enormous difference is that the pot at 18:20 is not 3-way, it is heads up. The existence of two opponents makes it much less likely that AQ is the best hand.

      • Foucault

        What Mark said is really important: there’s less incentive to turn the hand into a bluff in a heads up pot, because there’s a better chance that you don’t need to bluff and a less good chance of making better hands fold (betting into multiple people on the flop shows some what more strength than betting only into a BB call). As I argue in the video, I don’t know that I have that much equity to realize vs his flop calling range, and it’s not obvious to me that this flop favors me, except at the top-end (which is why I say I’d be more inclined to bluff if I could triple barrel). I encourage you to use a tool like Flopzilla or CREV to input some ranges and look at how often each of us will flop middle pair or a draw.

        • Str8_flushes

          I get the HU vs. 3 way comment, but wouldn’t the flip side be:
          1. Easier to bluff HU – so if he does have BP or weak MP you can get a fold
          2. Trying to make out his BB defend – I thought it was high (cant really read the stat) which would infer we should cbet as his range is wider
          3. Do we know his fold to cbet or check call cbet? If high, again wouldn’t it favor a cbet?

          Finally – if a 10 did come how would you get stacks in by checking the flop with the STP ratio as it is? If we turn or river a 10 and he has a strong TPTK or turn/river 2 pair when the 10 hits it would look a bit suspect if we try for stacks – and given variance in the large field wouldn’t you want to set up to play for stacks?

          • Foucault

            1. I can’t think of any reason why a player should be MORE inclined to fold middle pair in a heads up pot than in a 3 way pot…
            2. It’s not immediately obvious to me that a higher BB defend makes betting more profitable.
            3. It’s probably true that the more we expect V to fold, the more profitable betting will be. However, it’s very hard to make a good prediction about this from data, because the situations that count towards FCBet are quite distinct from each other.

            Most importantly, I just don’t think you are appreciating the fact that Hero probably has the best hand in a heads up pot and probably isn’t going to make better hands fold by betting. That doesn’t mean there’s no value in betting, but it significantly reduces the value in betting.

            As for hitting a T, putting money in bad on the current street (which is what probably happens if our bet is called) in hopes of hitting one of four gin cards on the turn isn’t generally a good strategy. As long as you have a marginal/showdown value sort of hand, you should play it that way. If it turns into a value hand on a future street, then you can change course when that happens. That’s what overbets are for 😉

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