88 is like 42% vs 66+ AJ+ so it’s BE with the pot odds we are getting. I think the decision here is a function of the original openers opening frequency and calling range once we shove.
I would fold 88 because winning this pot doesnt change my relative stack position. If I was much shorter, I would take the spot.
on the A7 hand to double or not to double the Kh 4d 5d Jh runout, is it not ok to check back and call a river bet? when we check back our range contains 66-1010 which should prevent villain vbetting anything less than 88/99+ so when they bet river on a dry runout (offsuit 2/6/8/9) or when the back door flush comes in, we can call since there are so many missed draws and random floats in his range and most of his marginal hands (eg A4hh) wont bet the river unimproved anyway? when the board runs out with the 10d we can just give up and fold.
not sure if this is a better option than doubling since the relative frequency of good river cards is low and we allow him to vbet his Kx/draw for free but we also induce bluffs in some spots and only put 2 bets into the pot with more equity since we dont expect to make very many better hands fold and he has a really wide turn range.
i also think that when we dont triple (some) rivers we do win the pot with A high.
In the A7 vs. Milf Island, do you ever consider making a pot size bet on the turn when checked to? making it 30k to go on the turn, puts him in a super sticky spot, as it represents 30% of his stack. Think he has to jam the tip top of his range, or fold so often, that it’s profitable. You also save chips, bc he’s never flatting. If you bet 1/2 pot on turn, and then 3 barrel the river for 1/2-3/4 pot, it will prob cost you 15k turn + 35-45k on the river. if he has super nutted hands, and jams turn, you save 25-30k by never having to make the river bluff. If you make a pot size bet on the turn, it only has to work 33% of the time to be profitable. thoughts?
gutbuster200
This has been such a good series!! Just so in depth in the thinking process!:)
loxxii
9min
88 is like 42% vs 66+ AJ+ so it’s BE with the pot odds we are getting. I think the decision here is a function of the original openers opening frequency and calling range once we shove.
I would fold 88 because winning this pot doesnt change my relative stack position. If I was much shorter, I would take the spot.
Turbulence
Loving the series guys. Really good and deep analysis.
Thanks for the shout-out Chris, I defo up for a session with the pair of you guys!
duggs
@9:30
on the A7 hand to double or not to double the Kh 4d 5d Jh runout, is it not ok to check back and call a river bet? when we check back our range contains 66-1010 which should prevent villain vbetting anything less than 88/99+ so when they bet river on a dry runout (offsuit 2/6/8/9) or when the back door flush comes in, we can call since there are so many missed draws and random floats in his range and most of his marginal hands (eg A4hh) wont bet the river unimproved anyway? when the board runs out with the 10d we can just give up and fold.
not sure if this is a better option than doubling since the relative frequency of good river cards is low and we allow him to vbet his Kx/draw for free but we also induce bluffs in some spots and only put 2 bets into the pot with more equity since we dont expect to make very many better hands fold and he has a really wide turn range.
i also think that when we dont triple (some) rivers we do win the pot with A high.
Stiverson
Milf Island was forsure a reg b4 BF.
kingten102
In the A7 vs. Milf Island, do you ever consider making a pot size bet on the turn when checked to? making it 30k to go on the turn, puts him in a super sticky spot, as it represents 30% of his stack. Think he has to jam the tip top of his range, or fold so often, that it’s profitable. You also save chips, bc he’s never flatting. If you bet 1/2 pot on turn, and then 3 barrel the river for 1/2-3/4 pot, it will prob cost you 15k turn + 35-45k on the river. if he has super nutted hands, and jams turn, you save 25-30k by never having to make the river bluff. If you make a pot size bet on the turn, it only has to work 33% of the time to be profitable. thoughts?
adog26
@ 27:50 you also have a backdoor straight which will give you an extra 4%.
folding_aces_pre_yo
great series!