33 Responses to “FTOPS Main Event Final Table HH Review with Lee Childs (Part 1)”

  1. tomnovicki

    nice vid. i ‘d jam at that AKs spot. that guy seems to open a lot and u ,as u said, have got loose image so he may not believe that u have a real hand. u played plenty of hands and folded after callin pre many times so if he doesn’t know who u are he actually may consider u as a weak player. and as far as i remember You did play with him couple of hands so once again his thinking may be that you just like playing hands with him and so on and so forth. and u have AKs. JAM for me Sir.
    regards

  2. No1uNo

    Thanks Lee. Solid first vid.

    I appreciate you outlining your thoughts on the AKs. This spot may be a leak for me. This hand is so much easier to play with shallow stacks, but from your reasoning I think Fold > Shove >>> Call. The reason I think call is the worst is that your would really have a hard time getting away from a K high flop. The problem with an A high flop is your position. I don’t think you can get enough value out of your A high flops to justify calling someone you don’t know. I constantly try to remind myself that position is not only important in gathering information; but it is vital to maximizing the value of good hands.

    Can’t wait for the next one…

  3. gobsmacked1

    I was with you until the AKhh hand at the end. How you can’t feel comfortable getting it in for 75bb effective, I don’t think it has anything to do with your edge vs the field here, this play is beyond +EV to go with it and hugely -EV to do anything else. Sorry, just hated hated hated that hand.

  5. Elatis

    Excellent vid – love the deep analysis for each hand played.
    Personally there is no way I’d jam that AKs hand being that deep. Further, his small 4-bet just seemed to suggest he wanted you to call or shove so he could snap call. If he made such a small 4-bet so he could fold if you 5-bet/shoved, then 95% of the time with any hand he’d do that with he wouldn’t 4-bet that early in the tourney to start with (he’d rather see a flop in position), and if he did, well, I think you have to say “nice balls” and give it to him. I couldn’t fold that though, I couldn’t not call that – and with those odds if he has AA or KK and you get the flush or broadway you might be able to stack him otherwise throw it away.

  6. gusno444

    Regarding that AKs hand, this is what I would do: First quickly check the opponents stats. He has 300 mtts over 4 years of play, ABI $53, ROI -77% (and a lot of early finishes). Also taking into account that he has been very active and you have shown some weakness, this is a clear SHOVE! This being a button vs SB fight and the fact that his stats indicate that he doesn’t mind gambling early, I think he could call you as wide as
    99+,AJs+,AQo+ (in which case you are 52% favourite!).

    Anyway, you seem to hint at the end that your overall strategy includes passing up +chipEV spots early on in large field deep/slow mtts where you have an edge. Can you elaborate a bit more on this. Say your expected ROI for the tournament is 100%, are you willing to pass an early flip for all your chips where you are 53% favourite? (According to “the theory of doubling up” you need much higher expected ROI to pass up such a “big” edge).

  7. acumen53

    Thanks for all the early feedback everyone. This is great!

    First of all, I definitely have to give props to Elatis for articulating a lot of my thoughts much more succinctly than I think I did. 🙂 I think that this (“Further, his small 4-bet just seemed to suggest he wanted you to call or shove so he could snap call. If he made such a small 4-bet so he could fold if you 5-bet/shoved, then 95% of the time with any hand he’d do that with he wouldn’t 4-bet that early in the tourney to start with (he’d rather see a flop in position), and if he did, well, I think you have to say “nice balls” and give it to him”) was a major part of what I was thinking as well.

    I am definitely not going to debate back and forth with people on what is “the right play” with the hand as I really value all of the input and think it will make us all better. The thing is, I am not sure that there *is* a “right play” as is often the case with many hands that we play. I am sure I put most of my thoughts in the video, but I definitely know that on this hand, I just felt like he really had a monster and that I should probably just let it go. Not saying that is right (ok, hopefully that point has been made), but sometimes you do have to take in all of the information, betting patterns and use a bit of recall to figure out what you should do, but even with all of that, I still found this to be a tricky spot for me and how I approach the game as I really didn’t like any of my options on this one. I definitely played this one in line with what Elatis said as we both viewed this situation the same. It was in hindsight that I actually like the fold a little better pre-flop, because I really thought that he had a monster. Yes, AKhh is a big hand too of course, but my gut tells me that he had JJ+, and *maybe* AK as well.

    I know that there are plenty of math-based decisions that I need to be better with and believe me, I use a LOT more of that than I used to. I used to think it was fine to get by with being a “feel player” but I have come to realize over the last few years how obviously essential understanding the math of the game. I know that I still have weaknesses with it, especially the on-the-spot range-based decisions and I plan to log more time studying that.

    I do make, and will continue to make, decisions that are not 100% math based as I think that you have to in order to be really successful. That said, I know that there are math-based decisions that I am not always making correctly and there are certainly feel-based/intuitive decisions that are not correct either. It’s really hard to get them both right tourney after tourney, day after day, but I definitely appreciate the feedback from everyone who has posted as it helps me not only to articulate more about what I was thinking, but it helps me to validate some of my decisions and identify some clear leaks in others. All of which will do nothing but make me better and I hope that my videos and any ensuing discussions do so for everyone here!

    And please don’t bail on me if there is a hand here or there that you don’t like. Those are bound to be there. Hopefully they will be balanced with a hand here or there that gives you a different perspective that may turn out to be better – or which may be just as valuable – just simply different. I know for a fact that we can all learn so much from players who are better, worse, or equal and a key part of that is hearing others talk about how they are thinking because even if you completely disagree and think that they are out of their mind, if you shut them off, you are passing up an opportunity to learn how your opponents may be thinking about a hand! Everyone that you talk poker with represents a segment of the population that you will be squaring off with at the tables, so be sure to keep that in mind. I know that I do!

    Thanks again everyone and I will check back in from time to time to see what everyone has to say and chime in as appropriate.

  8. gobsmacked1

    Don’t worry, I’m not bailing on you, I value everyone’s input especially because I do a lot of “unorthodox” stuff in my own game that people would call fishy.

    That said, I learn on the side of aggression and I really think it’s a clear push, but hey, that’s what forums are all about…debate! 🙂

  10. P-aire 146

    Great vid Lee, can’t wait to see more. Wow, all good points about the AK hand. I like the fold. It lead you to a 5th place finish. I say that’s better then busting out to JJ/1010 or AQ.

  12. flgtb786

    I like your logic you used talking about the AK hand and will integrate it into my game. Also, Instajam vs Ivey all day there!

  13. ImYaHuckleberry

    Nice vid Lee,

    In the AKs suited hand , I’ll start by saying I hate the call…as you do and for the same reason.

    I probably reraise all in hear but the fold is a close second option. He seems to open alot so he could have AK here as well. So best case he has AK too or QQ I guess. So you are either racing or crushed in most cases.

    I will say that in the heat of the moment I’m probably putting it in. And just wanted to mention that thanks to your vid I probably will be thinking about other options than that in this situation.

    Keep it up!

  14. bigdogpckt5s

    OK first of all let me say im not the greatest writer in the world. I express my thoughts much better saying them then typing them out. Having said that this AK suited hand is getting alot of chatter so I watched the vid and here are my thoughts for those of you that are interested in them. First off at the beggining of this vid lee 3 bets this exact person twice once was sb to bb when he had a10 might even have been the first hand of the vid. And there is a second hand that he 3 bets so its not like this is the first time that lee has made a 3 bet against this opponent. I think the bet sizing on his 3 bet is a little off but thats pretty irrelevent imo were dealing with the 4 bet. The bottom line here is he thinks that his hand is better then lee’s 3 bet range. So he throws out a 4 bet. I totally get all of lee’s thought process about not want to flip when he has a edge on the field I couldnt agree more. But I think this is a pretty standard shove given the dynamics are he has already 3 bet this person twice. Also the first action comes on the button if it was say utg and then a 4 bet from the utg raiser it might change things slightly. I honestly think that Lee is thinking hes gonna have to flip here. I dont think thats true. I think this person is folding to a jam atleast 50 percent of the time. The times he is calling were dominated a very small percentage of the time maybe 20 percent tops. I think this is a standard shove and I could never find a fold here. If I was playing live it may be different and I think live players find a fold here more then online but. I think litterally your almost as likely to have your opponent dominated online here as you are being dominated yourself. Alot of online guys are just never releasing AQ on the button to a single action from 1 of the blinds. Bottom line is I think hes folding atleast half the time and the other half were prolly racing. It makes it extreamly plus ev in the bigdog’s poker book. Just my thoughts hope they came across ok.

    Bigdogpckt5s

  16. acumen53

    Thanks Bigdog! Appreciate you taking a look at the vid and offering up the feedback. Will definitely take it to heart and be sure that I am factoring in my history with players a little more than I did here. I think I am pretty decent about it with known players online, and I also am better with it live since only one table is going on, but I am pretty sure I am not always factoring that in when multi-tabling vs unknown players. Whether or not it changes my decision on this hand is not even the biggest thing that I take from your feedback, rather its the fact that I must not have even realized that this was the 3rd time that I 3bet this guy pretty early on in the tournament. Whether I realized it or not at the time I was playing, I don’t know. But obviously it was not even factored into my analysis of the hand so that’s something I should have observed and mentioned.

    Really great point about how it may change if the 4-bet was from UTG rather than the button. I think so many players get caught up with the fact that they have AK and are just going to go with it no matter what and they aren’t thinking about where the original raise and 4-bet are coming from. Obviously in this hand, its from the button, so this is one where it just may be right to go with it, but the point kinda goes back to what I was saying before about factoring everything in and not just sticking it in because you have the pretty AKs. What I really like about this and what I think that others should take away from this is that you are telling us WHY it’s extremely plus EV in bigdog’s poker book and not just putting it in because it’s AKs. Also, not saying that anyone here in has been that simple-minded about it either but it’s just something for everyone to be aware of and to be sure that they are able to make some big preflop laydowns when the time is right.

    Appreciate your insight as always, sir!

  17. PO-KW-ER

    boring video for every player above average…lee seems nice guy and funny though so i want to see the next videos…but commenting about why calling 22 to set mine as opposed to reraising is extremelly boring imo

  18. Nockx

    Make me think about thinking.
    Isnt it a extreme overkill to think this much about a simple hand as AKs in that spot.I shove without a single thought ,just by a impulse 100 times of 100 in that situation.
    People thinking too much…. that is my point.
    Or put it like this.
    To much information will often become desinformation.

  22. xtremeungar

    Loved the vid…. Think its awesome to have Lee Childs on board…I loved the explanations… also liked the bigdog’s input. I agree with the bigdog 95%…. the 5% I disagree is that the guy is folding to the shove. In game I am always shoving here as I am not passing this EV spot imo…..At the same time been in Lee’s shoes I understand his feel about his edge over the field etc….. but ok we need to take flips now or later… this is not such a bad spot…. SHOE

  23. Elatis

    He’s already scared of Lee’s raising him – so he counters that with a min raise? Either he is a genius or he knows he’s ahead. And if he is a genius he has to deal with the flop. Does he get lucky and push AQ? I don’t think so. He knows he’s well ahead.

  24. nickastayfly

    This post is going to be long, but I think its fitting..

    Im going to quote a part of Tommy Angelo’s book, Elements of Poker because this AKhh hand reminds me of this topic…

    “THE GRAY AREA- Black and White represent betting decisions that are defenitely right or defenitely wrong. The various shades of gray represent all the others. Here are 2 examples of black and white betting decisions:
    1. Playing limit hold em, in a full game, you are under the gun with 7-2o.Should you raise,call, or fold?
    2.Playing any poker game,it’s on the river, you are heads up, and you have the nuts. Your opponent checks. Should you check or bet?
    As we move into the gray, the theoretical expectations of our options become more balanced, A decision might make us 60-40 favorite,for example. Moving into the central gray region,we arrive at those decisions for which the expected outcome is 50-50 or nearly so. These are the decisions of little or no theoretical consequence, the decisions where each option is as good as the other. These are the decisions that matter least.
    Also in the central gray area- the land of closest decisions- we can expect disagreement to go up over which decisions are best. We can expect intelligent,elaborate debates with both sides insisting theirs is the right side. We can also expect to debate with ourselves and to second guess ourselves. In the central gray area is where we are most likely to torture ourselves with the question: Did I get it right that time?
    And thats why I say: The decisions that trouble us the most are the ones that matter least.”…that being said…i vote ship it 5 bet all in!

  25. nickastayfly

    oh yah, also…love the slow thought out process of Mr.Childs vids..good addition to the tpe fam..welcome aboard sir.

  26. 8ash8

    i love the vid Lee and see nothing wrong with folding your AK suited , you are backing yourself to have your skill get you further than a coin flip, its us TPE newbies that will probably take the coin flip lol

  27. GaryLQ

    Thanks Lee, a great debut, I enjoyed this a lot.

    Enough has been said about the AhKh hand already, all I’d like to add is that hands (like this) which spark a big discussion are perfect for a video, players with differing views will all learn from each other.

  28. Halowax

    Hey Lee. Fellow new TPE pro, Niko, here saying waddup!

    We’ve played together a bunch of times, actually, most recently starting out day 2 of the Borgata Winter Poker Open, where I misclick overbet the flop against Little Kraut. Also, we played at the toughest WSOP 1k table in history last summer with The Squee, CDBR, and others.

    Always thought you were a great guy and a tough opponent and happy to be joining the TPE family with you.

  30. Phoenix390

    Great Video!! I really love the deep thought process, Thank you and please continue. Very instructive. Look forward to more videos in the future.

    Phoenix

  31. Dantonski

    Great video, specially because it’s a single table. That helps to do a more in depth analysis on the pro’s part, and a better understanding of the concepts on the PTE member side. I am looking forward to the rest of the series.

  33. sbusacca

    For me the decision about shoving with AKs in that spot comes down to one issue. Can I re-buy? If this is a freeze-out I feel like it’s a pretty clear fold as I do not want to race for all my chips If I don’t have to and clearly that’s the best I can hope for. If it’s a re-buy then I would go into some deeper thought and maybe I shove depending on the smell in the air. I’m one of those “old Guys” you kids like to try to push around btw.

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