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Obviously a great aid to give us the figures but how do I interpret them. For instance on shoving if my risk of busting is 30% what kind of EV am I looking for. Some things are obvious like risk of busting 10% with a an EV of +20% is an obvious shove so is there some kind of generalisation of the numbers when making the decision to shove or fold. I was just thinking something like if the EV% is at least half of the risk of busting % then shove, no mathematical basis of that obviously, just looking for a cut off point when it's not a shove.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Yeah I toyed with this concept a lot when creating the spreadsheet and I just couldn't come up with any formula because so much depends on where you are in the tournament and how big a risk you are facing. Sorry for no definitions but this is a case where the best answer is “it depends”.
Thanks for the reply, kind of guessed that's what you'd say with other factors involved, was just hoping !!!!! One other thing can you look at the example here and explain the results, I'm in SB and have BB covered and folded to me. After posting blinds and antes SB 6250 BB 1000, blind 125/250/25 and nine handed.
Pot 600
Your Stack 6250
BB 250
Effective Stack 1000
Single Call Range 60.00%
Left to Act 1
Call % 60.00%
Fold % 40.00%
Win % 30.00%
Lose % 70.00%
If we shove and get folds 6850
If we shove, get called and win 7850
If we shove, get called and lose 5250
EV of a shove 4153
Ev of a fold 1000
Net EV of a shove 3153
EV as % of stack 50.45%
EV as # of BBs 12.61
Risk of Busto 42.00%
The pot is 600 and BB has 1000 behind so the total I can add to my stack is 1600 which is 6.4bb but it says my EV as # of BBs is 12.61. I don't get how my EV can be more than the actual amount available. I'm obviously missing something (not unusual) so thanks for any help. Great video by the way, learnt a lot even with this problem.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
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Hey…you found a bug in the spreadsheet which i just fixed. Sorry i had made some updates to the spreadsheet recently and left a testing formula in there by mistake. Here are the new results with the right formula. Sorry about that!
Downloaded the new spreadsheet and it's fixed the above problem thanks, but I think I've got another funny one if you could look at it thanks,
Pot 600
Your Stack 3750
BB 250
Effective Stack 1000
Single Call Range 37.00%
Left to Act 1
Call % 37.00%
Fold % 63.00%
Win % 29.00%
Lose % 71.00
If we shove and get folds 4350
If we shove, get called and win 5350
If we shove, get called and lose 2750
Results
EV of a shove 4037………………………………?
EV of a fold 625…………………………………..?
Net EV of a shove -2213…………………………should be 287 I think
EV as % of Stack -59.01%
EV as # of BBs -8.85
Risk of Busto 26.27%
Working it out long hand I make the Net EV of a shove 287 and therefore EV as % of Stack is 7.65% and EV as # of BBs 1.15.
Sorry to be a pain, Roger.
Another one I think
Pot 600
Your stack 1000
BB 250
Effective stack 1000
Single call range 60.00%
Left to act 1
Call % 60.00%
Fold % 40.00%
Win % 30.00%
Lose % 70.00%
If we shove and get folds 1600
If we shove, get called and win 2600
If we shove, get called and lose 0
Results
EV of a shove 1108
EV of a fold 6250
Net EV of a shove -5142
EV as % of a shove -514.20%
EV as # of BBs -20.57
Risk of busto 42.00%
I haven't worked this one out it seems way off. If I'm understanding correctly the “Net EV of a shove” can never be a negative number higher than my stack, ie if my stack is the effective stack of say 2000 the Net EV of a shove can never be worse than -2000 and I'd have to lose every time to get the -2000, is that correct. Again sorry but this is such a good tool that I need to understand it correctly.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
Sorry my daughter had to go to the emergency room this weekend so we've been tied up. She fell and got a cut to the left of her eye requiring a bunch of stitches…been a bit hectic but i'll have a look tonight for sure.
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
discount said:
Downloaded the new spreadsheet and it's fixed the above problem thanks, but I think I've got another funny one if you could look at it thanks,
Pot 600
Your Stack 3750
BB 250
Effective Stack 1000
Single Call Range 37.00%
Left to Act 1
Call % 37.00%
Fold % 63.00%
Win % 29.00%
Lose % 71.00
If we shove and get folds 4350
If we shove, get called and win 5350
If we shove, get called and lose 2750
Results
EV of a shove 4037………………………………?
EV of a fold 625…………………………………..?
Net EV of a shove -2213…………………………should be 287 I think
EV as % of Stack -59.01%
EV as # of BBs -8.85
Risk of Busto 26.27%
The field above is a manual input of what your stack will be if you just fold. In this case it's 3750. Not sure where you got 625 from
Once you do that you get the following:
Pot 600Your Stack 3750BB 250Effective Stack 1000Single Call Range 37.00%Left to Act 1Call % 37.00%Fold % 63.00%Win % 29.00%Lose % 71.00%If we shove and get folds 4350If we shove, get called and win 5350If we shove, get called and lose 2750EV of a Shove 4037EV of a Fold 3750Net EV of a Shove 287EV as % of Stack 7.65%EV as # of BBs 1.15Risk of Busto 26.27%
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
discount said:
Another one I think
Pot 600
Your stack 1000
BB 250
Effective stack 1000
Single call range 60.00%
Left to act 1
Call % 60.00%
Fold % 40.00%
Win % 30.00%
Lose % 70.00%
If we shove and get folds 1600
If we shove, get called and win 2600
If we shove, get called and lose 0
Results
EV of a shove 1108
EV of a fold 6250
Net EV of a shove -5142
EV as % of a shove -514.20%
EV as # of BBs -20.57
Risk of busto 42.00%
I haven't worked this one out it seems way off. If I'm understanding correctly the “Net EV of a shove” can never be a negative number higher than my stack, ie if my stack is the effective stack of say 2000 the Net EV of a shove can never be worse than -2000 and I'd have to lose every time to get the -2000, is that correct. Again sorry but this is such a good tool that I need to understand it correctly.
Same issue. What i'll do is make that field blue and reupload so it'll be more clear that it's an input
| Pot | 600 |
| Your Stack | 1000 |
| BB | 250 |
| Effective Stack | 1000 |
| Single Call Range | 60.00% |
| Left to Act | 1 |
| Call % | 60.00% |
| Fold % | 40.00% |
| Win % | 30.00% |
| Lose % | 70.00% |
| If we shove and get folds | 1600 |
| If we shove, get called and win | 2600 |
| If we shove, get called and lose | 0 |
| EV of a Shove | 1108 |
| EV of a Fold | 1000 |
| Net EV of a Shove | 108 |
| EV as % of Stack | 10.80% |
| EV as # of BBs | 0.43 |
| Risk of Busto | 42.00% |
TPE Management
March 17, 2010
Offline
Ah, actually i see where the error is. For some reason the formula which was in there got overwritten. It should pull from “Your Stack” field. Instead it was manually input (probably when i was debugging the first problem we were going over). I fixed it and uploaded it again.
RonFezBuddy said:
Sorry my daughter had to go to the emergency room this weekend so we've been tied up. She fell and got a cut to the left of her eye requiring a bunch of stitches…been a bit hectic but i'll have a look tonight for sure.
No apology necessary mate, I have two daughters myself and they come first over everything. Hope she's getting better now and cheers for the update.
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