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I want to say from the outset, that the following post is just my opinion, but opinion based on results and experience in the following strategy that I undertook.

After joining TPE and obtaining a better poker game, I wanted to think of a strategy where I could start to build a bankroll playing low to midstakes , but I am a very “variance averse” type of person. I hate it with a passion.  I was only prepared to risk 1K and did not want to start at the micro stakes. 1K is probably just not enough for low to midstakes, but maybe, just maybe there is a way.

After playing Blackjack for several years, I just did not want to go through that sort of variance again. Reading and seeing how other players do it in poker; the same strategy was always given; volume, volume and more volume.  There has to be another way. Noticed I did not say a “better” way, but “another”.  For those that love the volume and grind of volume all power to you, I’m simply giving an alternative strategy/method that has worked for me, and might be something others would like to try.

Of course, improving your game is also a major factor to decreasing variance which is another topic altogether, but let’s assume that you already have a good enough game to win at MTTs and the fields have a good mixture of regs, randoms and fish.

Below is my graph of MTTs since I started playing. The red line is when I started to listen to TPE podcasts and watch the free videos, and consequently joining in July 2011 (Black line). Maybe it’s an upswing and I’ll come crashing down some time soon, but all I can do is keep doing what’s working for me and each month it continues to work. I can only comment and evaluate any conclusions on my results so far.

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As you can see, prior to TPE, I was just an average player, not a losing player but very average, and only played occasionally for fun (self taught, never read a poker book) and then you can see the steady rise after joining TPE. (Decided to take poker more seriously)  Clearly, a low variance, low stress, low volatility steady climbing worm.

Granted, 8 months/400 tourneys (since joining TPE) sample size is not that large a sample but nevertheless it is a sample.  There is no argument when the increase began, and it began after joining TPE: I drowned myself in the videos and strategy threads and pretty much completely changed my game.

I'm a realist; I don't think I'm half as good as some of the other members on TPE. Have been in the chat room lately and so you get to know when some of the players are running deep and then I sweat them, and it is a little disheartening for me, seeing how well they play, but then again, it’s a reality check and it opens my eyes to how much more I need to learn. I have not been a member that long, and so still in the process of improving my game to a level where I can hopefully one day compete with the better to best players.

So how have I achieved my modest bankroll with low variance and low volume??

I mainly play on Pokerstars and I rarely play standard freeze outs with average stacks and lower blind levels or turbos.  I play low/midstakes and the following types of tourneys:

                    –          Deep stack tournaments with longer blind level increases

                    –          Cubed tournaments (start with a larger stack + the add on)

                    –          Rebuys (chance to build a large stack in the rebuy period + the add on)

The lowest variance tourneys are the deep stacks with longer blind levels (20min -30min)

The cubed and rebuys on stars have 2 types; 15min blind levels and 10min blind levels.  I only ever try and play the 15min levels. Sometimes that’s not possible, but as long as the majority is the 15min levels then again the variance must be lower than the 10min levels.  The blinds are lower in the 10min levels and there is no real difference early in the tourney but the variance becomes more apparent when you get deep and that’s where you want the most amount of play.

I do play turbos and standard freeze outs occasionally to keep that part of my game tuned but keep it to a minimum.

Stands to reason if shallower tourneys like standard freeze outs and turbos increase your variance and therefore to combat that you need higher volume, then would it be safe to say that deeper tournaments will decrease your variance and in turn you would need lower volume? Is my conclusion correct? My chart and stats at the moment confirm it. To reiterate, I don’t think I’m that great a player, so if I can do it, I’m sure better players will crush it. And again I agree, it is a conclusion based on a small sample size.

I know I have a larger than average ITM, and that is regarded as being too nitty. But I suppose as long as the ROI is at a decent percentage, then it’s not that much of a concern. Saying that, I do think I am on the nittier side than aggressive, but that is improving all the time and I am getting more and more aggressive. That part of my game is a slow work in progress, but it is improving. Compared to how nitty I was before TPE and after TPE is chalk and cheese. Old habits are hard to break, but thanks to TPE and the training, the habit is slowly but surely breaking.

The higher than average ITM is not necessarily because I’m on the nittier side but rather because I play the lowest variance tourneys therefore you will cash more often than higher variance tourneys but saying that, deeper style tourneys can accommodate a nittier style. You can reach the final table as the short stack and still have over 40/50 big blinds.  The other similar stacks invariably panic, feeling they are so short stacked compared to the leaders and not realising they have plenty of play that you often move up a few pay increments doing nothing.

I played heads up a few weeks ago in the stars $33 deepstack for over 2.5 hours. When we got heads up the blinds were $800/$1600, he had $495K and I had $170K. Plenty of play, and I managed to grind him down and finally win it. I couldn’t have done that if we were shallow. (I mean I could’ve, but it’s more of a crap shoot when you’re shallower)

In the deep stack tourneys, on some occasions when you reach the final table, the average can be anywhere from 60 to 100 big blinds. When was the last time you reached a final table and the average was that deep?

The advantages and why there is less variance:

1. You have so much more play that you can afford to avoid high variance spots more often, either because you have more time and chips so it’s not necessary to get involved in high variance spots and high variance boards.  Basically you have time and chips to wait for the better and best spots.
2. You can afford to take a hit(s) (due to starting with a larger stack) and still have enough chips to get back into the tournament.
3. Adequate time to stack donkeys: How often do you have fish/spewtards/donkeys at your table and you just don't get the time or hand to trap them? But more often than not, you have the time and chips to stack these muppets in deeper style tourneys.  These guys will put in 200+ big blinds all in pre flop and post flop without even blinking.
4. You are only ever playing one or two tourneys (occasionally 3 or 4) at any given time, so you can focus more intently,  therefore you will make less mistakes,  you can take your time with tough decisions, you have better reads and in general have a much better feel for the table dynamics.
5. On many occasions you can get very deep and even get to the Final Table without ever being all-in preflop.  (Stacks are too deep) If you’re not all-in preflop then you can’t bust.  Of course this does not always happen, and I’m not afraid to get 200+ big blinds all in preflop or postflop if the circumstance warrants it, but it’s nice when you run deep without being all-in preflop.
6. Having a push/fold stack happens less frequently in the early stages of deep stacks. Doesn’t take to many levels and a few hits to your stack in standard/turbo tourneys, before you have less than 20bbs, which of course dramatically increases your variance.
7. Being moved to another table happens less frequently. Because the majority of players have deeper stacks deep in the tourney, it consequently takes longer for players to bust; it’s very annoying when you get a good feel and dynamic of the table tendencies and then they move you to another table.

The disadvantages:

1. Volume for deep stack online tourneys is low (especially at higher levels). Players hate them because they take too long so the online sites obviously don't offer that many as fields are usually small and demand is low. When I bust early, I’m left scratching my head and saying “Ok, now what do I do?”  Not like you can fire up another deep stack tourney, as that was the only one for the day
2. Low hand rate. Many of the great players will say that they gain so much experience from multi-tabling and high volume because they play so many hands per hour. Obviously with this strategy your hands per hour will be much less.
3. Your hourly win rate decreases dramatically. As the old adage says; “you get nothing for nothing” there is always a price to pay or a trade off of some sort.
4. You will never have a big online score. Although this strategy is strategy is not intended to win a huge online score but rather to build a bankroll. The fields are quite small in the deep stack tourneys so not a large cherry at the top. Saying that, the cubed and rebuys do get decent sized fields in the low and midstakes.
5. You’re ranking will never be high. If you’re the type that likes to have a high ranking on the MTT tracking sites, then this strategy is not for you. You just won’t get enough volume.
6. It can be quite monotonous and at times boring. If you run deep, these tourneys can take a long time. One or two tabling can be frustrating at times. If you want action, action, action then again this strategy is not for you. This strategy takes time and patience.
7. This point is not really a disadvantage, but your post flop play will need to be at a reasonable level. Being so deep for most of the tourney, you will be playing most pots post flop, so if you’re not very confident or adept at post flop play then either don’t play them or improve it.

I've managed to build a modest bankroll, with very little variance, very little downswings, low stress and low volume. Since joining TPE, I’ve averaged $1500+ profit a month playing on average 47 tourneys a month with an average buy in of $25. Sure, it’s not life changing money, but it’s a start and a stepping stone to the occasional higher stake tourney. Turning 1K into 12K in 8 months with basically no real risk or downswing to my initial bankroll, well I can’t complain. $24 a month membership has been a pretty good investment, so all kudos must go to TPE.

I had an awful month in October last year. Possibly the worst month of variance and bad beats imaginable, but yet managed to make a small profit for the month.  If that’s as bad as it gets in this type of strategy then I won’t complain. Incidentally, I did put more volume into October which has been the worst month so far, but I really think that’s just a coincidence.  (I must’ve been quiet at work)  I really was running bad and on the wrong side of variance for that month. Read the following thread below as an example of what was happening to me during that time.

…..37-chance/

It was relentless. It made me question my game and strategy, which is not a bad thing, but after reviewing the hand histories it was obvious to me that I was on the wrong side of variance and I just had to grit my teeth, take some pain killers, strap myself into my chair, buy a new mouse every second day and go through it.

Within in just over half a year I now have a big enough bankroll to start having a crack at a couple of Sunday Majors once a month and possibly twice a month.  I will also start to play the Sunday $50 cubed whenever I can.

Again I’m only going to play the best structures that will offer the least amount of variance. I will only play the tourneys with the best starting stacks and the best blind level increases.  I have been searching different sites and have found some pretty good ones. The Titan major looks good and the 2^nd Chance and $100 Kick off on Pokerstars also seems to be the best structures that I’ve found. If you know of any others “pray tell”.

I will add these tourneys to my current schedule. I realise that these higher stake tourneys will be at a new level, and I will be the fish in the tank, but heck you have to start somewhere. Wish me luck.  I think if can have small monthly losses or hopefully break even for a while until my game gets to a level where I can compete,  then I think that will be a pretty good achievement.  I know, my variance will increase, but it’s the price I’m going to have to pay to try and hopefully win some substantial online scores.

It is difficult for me to play Sunday majors as the Sundays are my Mondays so I’m going to have to make some adjustments sooner rather than later with my business. 

If this helps anyone, good luck, and if you think it’s a lot of BS then thanks for reading anyways, and feel free to critique my strategy. If I’m going down the wrong track here, I would appreciate any comments to why any of my comments, conclusions, points and strategy is flawed.