We’ve all been there (by we I mean everyone on this site that is not a pro); we’ve made correct decision after correct decision – 3betting A-10 to players we know have a wide range and raking in pots while folding Jacks to grandpa bill. We make it deep final table in sight we pick up 8h-8c and raise the big blind that has ridiculously tight numbers. The loser 3 bets us and we decide that it would a brilliant idea to 4bet the guy who hasn’t played a hand in 3 orbits, the villain then proceeds to jam.

We’re f#$ked! We just committed 85% of our chips with a mediocre hand “I am priced in!” we yell as we call the all-in. The villain flips over aces and we exit the tournament in 25^th place.

Obviously is a little over the top – I am assuming anyone who has watched our pro videos is not doing this. (I am not ashamed to admit that I do this from time earlier in tournaments – I can’t explain its like I am having an out of body experience)

No matter how well you play making it to the point where a score is substantial enough to cover tourney buy-ins previously paid and more takes a lot of skill but also requires that luck be in your favour at the right time.

I am sure a lot of you have seen the following matrix:

DEFINITION OF LUCK (As per this example):  Luck is the OPPORTUNITY to maximize your deserved success by having someone at the table that is continuously using a bad process and hoping for dumb luck to hit them.

The best tournament players excel at maximizing the times when they have “deserved success”. Let’s say on average the top 1000 players in the world are able to maximize their deserved success 80% of the time where an average player maximizes their deserved success 40% time.

The question then becomes how many chances does everyone have to maximize their “deserved success”? Statistically speaking considering that there are way more weak players than good players and we hopefully fall somewhere in the middle the pros will have more opportunities to extract maximum value out of continuously making the right decisions.

If we take the above to be a matrix for each hand in a poker tournament we can then extrapolate to the figure below that represents a 1 year span of tournament playing. The red box representing when you are getting the chance to maximize your good process decisions

Now it should be noted that these boxes can appear anywhere on the timeline. They can be larger or smaller in width but for the purposes of this discussion let’s say they are that width for everyone but can appear at different places in the timeline.  

Even the best players can be apt to making bad decision a small portion of the time their superior skill can make up for the odd bad decision.

 I contend the average/bad player should note that our skill level cannot overcome even 5-10% reduction in our average correct decision rate.  We cannot predict when we will get “lucky “again and be able to have the chance at maximizing our “deserved success” over and above the times we catch those horrible BAD BREAKS!!