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I would like to know everyone's opinion…how much luck do you think is involved with online poker? Me personally I think it's like 80%. I have heard the expression, volume + experience=profit, and I just don't buy it. I was just in about 20 tourneys (MTT's & SNG's) down to 4 as I write this. Granted 2 eliminations were my fault due to tilt.
I know if my stats are looked up I'm a donkey, but in the past 2 months of live play I've made final tables like 6 of 12 times. Cashed in 4 of those FT's.
In my opinion a player loses 75% of the key skill of poker, which is the ability to read people. Hand and eye movement, chest movement, Ive even seen sweat, and I had to bite my tounge to keep from laughing because I could just see the fear in him.
I'm about ready to give up this online shit and focus on real play.
Opinions please
October 6, 2010
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if you are any good at live poker, then you will succeed at online poker too.
a couple of things
1.live tells are overrated – sure they are there, but they are just as important as bet sizing, timing tells, etc etc which are in online poker as well.
2. live tourneys are generally much easier than online – just saying, maybe you are good enough to do ok at the live tourneys but not good enough to win at online. its also possible that you have just ran well in your live tourneys and you are actually a loser in the live arena too. (please done think i am having a go, i have no idea how you actually play)
3. online fields are generally bigger, so variance is higher. but having said this, you can put in super volume online which means that the luck soon evens out – and super volume isn't 20 tourneys, its 2000 tourneys.
hope that helps.
June 22, 2010
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I always say it is 49% the cards you are dealt and 51% how you play them.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
October 6, 2010
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in the short term, i.e over the course of a tournament, i would say it is 80% luck 20% skill.
by 100 tourneys, 20% luck 80% skill
by 1000 tourneys, 5% luck 95% skill
Here's a cool thread about mtt variance, looks like ~5000 tourneys is where is starts to even out the luck factor.
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