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Give me your thoughts on Football Picks Game

MovesLikeDarvin

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August 30, 2012 - 2:39 am

Original link here: …..ost9348392

OP: “They were doing this on Mike and Mike in the morning. The goal is to name as many teams as possible without taking the eventual Super Bowl champion. Pretend you get $100 for each team you are right about, but you don't get anything if any team on your list wins it all. So here's my list:”

im curious from Game Theory standpoint what would be the optimal number of picks for this game? you could very easily pick 4-8 teams with just about 0 risk and make $400-800. But u could also pick about 22 teams in the NFL and still be in “pretty good” shape not to lose it all (and get $1400-1800 more). what u guys think?

MovesLikeDarvin

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August 30, 2012 - 2:40 am

im gonna give this some thought with my morning paper and coffee tomorrow.

also fine-tuning last parts of my first video series tomorrow and turning the whole damn thing in! hope to hear everyones thoughts on it and this thread soon

JLUDEOBV

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June 2, 2012

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August 31, 2012 - 12:24 am

I like this a lot. I probably pick 22 teams. The 10 teams I don't pick are:

Patriots

Packers

49ers

Ravens

Eagles

Giants

Saints

Texans

Steelers

Bears

MovesLikeDarvin

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August 31, 2012 - 12:46 am

my initial thought was that the game theory optimal strategy would be to pick around the number of teams that dont make the playoffs each year. so if 6 teams make the playoffs from each conference (4 division + 2 wild cards), you should be picking approximately 20 teams (with some plus/minus depending on teams that could go either way).

its my guess that this approach would maximize value while minimizing risk

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