while i would never doubt the subtleties of bet analyses simply at face value, i think any value to be had in low $ (in absolute terms) runs like this are probably better to be avoided because it's really not that difficult to develop bad habits that would cause you to lose more later under 1 or any other format. while i don't understand that this is or isn't mathematically +ev, the habits formed are whats likely to drive this to be -lifeEV

right ya, i have no question regarding the expected value associated with conditional promotions like this. my point was that taking a bet such as this can eventually develop into a multitude of other degen habits. it's like reading conspiracy theories or pseudoscience. things sound interesting at first, and what you stumble into in the beginning may even be correct, but you end up bit by bit allowing yourself to fall into the habit because your comfort level increases each time. the fact that it's only a five dollar thing discourages me a little more because these habits can form regardless the absolute level of money involved, and it would be a shame to develop a degen problem or start a degen problem rather over such a small amount of money.

obviously it's good on you to spot you won't be placing the bet if there no longer is a free bed, but habits formed are tough to break. i think as a community of poker players it's really important to take as conservative approach as possible to gambling for plenty of reasons.