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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Yet another tough decision with Jac…

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Yet another tough decision with Jacks

TheClubber

Midstakes Master

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November 18, 2013

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June 10, 2015 - 4:09 am

$300 tournament. Level 9, so about 1/3 of the field left

V1 (80K) UTG very ABC basic player. Takes passive lines with draws and medium hands. Bascially playing face up.

V2 (30K) MP1 loosest player at table. Former chip leader. Recently triple barreled 75% of his stack to V1 who limp / called check / called check/called check/called drawing to K high flush and got there. Potentially a little tilty also potentially tricky

V3 (8K) SB super tight scared money. Blinded himself from 12K to 3K, Folded to every 3 bet even in spots with good pot odds. Hasn't raised in 30 minutes. Previous hand called all in 88 BVB and doubled up

Hero (14K) BB

Blinds 400/800/100 7 handed

V1 raises 2000 UTG. V2 calls 2000. V3 shoves for 8K.

Hero is in BB with JJ

a) Shove or fold?

b) How do I figure out the worst hand I should shove here?

Foucault

TPE Pro

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June 10, 2015 - 10:54 am

Start by putting V3 on a range. Obviously it will be tight, but try to be realistic about it. Is he really folding 99 here? 88? AQ? AJ? Think hard about the strongest hands you choose NOT to include in his range and whether you can really see him folding them.

Then you have to consider the ranges that V1 and V2 will have for overcalling if you shove. For simplicity, I think you can just assume V2 always folds. V1, however, will have a calling range that might looke like {QQ+,AK} so you have to figure out how often he folds (ie, what range is he opening and how often does he have one of those premium hands after opening).

Then you'll do an equity calculation that looks like this:

EV if V1 folds * probability V1 folds + EV if V1 calls * (1 – probability V1 folds)

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