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April 3, 2015
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Hi all,
Just busted out of the wynn poker classic main event, a $1600 deep stack with a fantastic structure, and I managed to totrally slay my stack in the following hand:
Blinds 100/200, I am playing a 25k stack main villain has 20k
I raise to 450 from mp with J8s of spades and get three callers. The highjack and the two blinds.
Flop is Q83 with two spades, so I have a pair, and a flush draw. Checks to me, I bet 825 into the 1800 pot, the HJ raises to 1800 the blinds fold.
Now, I don't think I can fold my hand, I have so much equity right now, getting more money in now seams crazy and was considered but immedialty discounted as an option, so I call.
The turn is an offsuit 10, giving me a gutshot as well as my pair and flushdraw. I check, and the HJ bets 3700 into 5400
Cosidering the implied odds I call, planning to check fold the river unimproved.
The river is another 8 giving me trip 8's.
Now my brain melts down, and I figure out the best play is to bet 5200 here to avoid villain checking behind a hand like AQ, or KQ.
Villain tank shoves for altogether 13.000.
So final pot is 31k and I have to put in just under 8000 more giving me just under 4:1
My initial plan was to check fold, so now I'm always folding right? I mean how often does the villain have a bluff shoving range here? It does perhaps look fishy do bet small as a donk lead here after he has taken the lead in the hand, and somehow I manage to level myself into actually believing he would be on a busted flush draw himself here, which is the only hand in his range I beat obviously…..so I call and surprisingly he has a full house….dooooh…
So, on a scale from 1-10, how bad is this play?
I mean, the streets up until the river seam fine, right? But the donk lead with basically a bluff catcher is rather awfull unless I actually follow my plan and fold to the shove.
Or is the lead OK considering I would get value from AQ and KQ?
Thanks for any input, and sorry for the horrible play…..:-/
Frode
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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Don't ask “how bad is this play?” – you're approaching the analysis from a biased viewpoint, so your brain is going to bend the narrative to fit that viewpoint. Just post the details, give your thought process, and see what the forum thinks. Don't berate yourself.
Anyway, as far as the hand goes, I think you played it fine up until the river (although preflop might be a little thin, depending on the table).
The key thing about the river is a) you made the river bet without knowing how you were going to respond in the (fairly likely) event that villain shoved, and b) you paid too much attention to the odds you were getting on the river, and not enough attention to villain's range.
In this particular spot, villain has check-raised flop and bet turn, representing a very strong range. This range includes all the nut hands that beat yours (mostly sets), and perhaps occasionally some bluffs. It may include AQ and KQ, it may not, but the point is it's a very strong range.
Leading into that range without a clear plan was the issue that caused you grief in this hand. It's natural to expect that a range which contains all the nut hands on a certain board is going to raise the river a good % of the time, so focusing on AQ and KQ was not the way to approach this river.
You're right that your opponent may have checked back those hands and not given you value, but focusing on what you were hoping your opponent had in this hand, and not on their entire range, cost you here. You were getting great odds on the river, but I can't really think of any hands with which your opponent would take this line that are behind J8 at this point. Once you lead the river, it looks like a fold, but a check/decide on river is probably best.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Good advice from ginger, but I'll emphasize that pre-flop is more than thin, it's just not a good open pre-ante. I wouldn't open this until HJ at most tables.
August 4, 2013
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i don't think folding the turn would be unreasonable either. you're rarely gonna get his stack if you hit your flush
August 25, 2014
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My first thoughts were to fold pre. JTs is fine, maybe J9s but J8s doesn’t seem great. I presume you’d fold J7s?
With this much equity on the flop, I like having these hands in check-calling ranges. The reason is that we don’t really want to get it in on the flop, we want to see future streets and by check calling we can near guarantee seeing a river.
As a general rule, don’t bet until you know how you can handle a raise.
June 2, 2012
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Question for the group. I don't see that Hero has much showdown value at all on the flop after he gets raised, so why not treat it like any other flush draw. The only difference is that presumably Hero may have a few more outs. That being said, would it be not correct to 3bet/5bet-get-it-in? I guess it depends on how much FE Hero believes he has. What about 3bet/fold? Or is that giving away too much equity? Maybe best line is to call the raise, with the intention of check folding when you don't hit? This particular turn though brings additional outs going to the river. As played, I think I would check/call the turn and then check/call the river 8 depending on his river bet size. Bet/folding seems ok as well, but it just sucks. I like check/calling better tho, even if villain checks back hands you beat. You lose a little bit of value but it's better than getting blown off the hand with a bet/fold river line when you river trips and are getting 4:1 on a call. That just makes me want to vomit.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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PokerWilo said:
Question for the group. I don't see that Hero has much showdown value at all on the flop after he gets raised, so why not treat it like any other flush draw. The only difference is that presumably Hero may have a few more outs. That being said, would it be not correct to 3bet/5bet-get-it-in? I guess it depends on how much FE Hero believes he has. What about 3bet/fold? Or is that giving away too much equity? Maybe best line is to call the raise, with the intention of check folding when you don't hit? This particular turn though brings additional outs going to the river. As played, I think I would check/call the turn and then check/call the river 8 depending on his river bet size. Bet/folding seems ok as well, but it just sucks. I like check/calling better tho, even if villain checks back hands you beat. You lose a little bit of value but it's better than getting blown off the hand with a bet/fold river line when you river trips and are getting 4:1 on a call. That just makes me want to vomit.
The last part shouldn't make you want to vomit. If you're sure villain never has worse (which we should be by the time he shoves river), then you can fold no matter what odds you're getting.
It also seems incredibly spewy to decide that we don't have much showdown value on flop (which is true) and then think about 3-bet/5-bet getting it in on the flop anyway. Getting in 100bb with nothing but a flush draw plus a couple of extra outs on the flop here would be nothing short of terrible, since we're unlikely to have much fold equity (especially not once villain 4-bets the flop, no-one does that as a bluff) and we're often going to get it in versus better flush draws or sets which could kill some of our outs.
Also, I think I missed the fact that we were pre-ante – I think I agree with Andrew now, that J8s has to be a fold preflop if we're pre-ante.
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