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WSOPC Cherokee Blind v Blind Hand Range

P0larbear79

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April 21, 2015 - 1:34 am

Live Hand from WSOPC Cherokee $365 Buy-In 500,000K GTD. Start of Day 2. 9-Handed. Blinds 3K/1.5K w 500 Ante. 353 players remaining 297 get paid.

This was the second hand of the day. I started the hand with 118K in the BB. There was an older man (60's) to my right in the SB and he had 38K (he was the shortest stack at the table) to start the hand. I am a younger female (30's). I had no other info on this player as this was the 2nd hand and I had not previously played with him.

The action folded to him in the SB and he raised to 9K. I had QJo and went all-in.

Being honest, at the time I didn't give a lot of thought to his range other than thinking that it wasn't the top because he should be shoving those hands. I thought that my play was more situational not so much that I was crushing his range. As the action was folding around the table I had already thought about this and decided that if the action went the way it did I would make that move with any 2 cards that had decent equity. Just because of the assumptions I made about him based on looks I didn't think he was opening any 2 as a steal.

My questions are:

1. Was my thinking about the situation correct?

2. As far as my hand vs. his range is this play correct?

3. Should they be other considerations such as not wanting to double up the short stack, not being ITM yet, my stack utility if I lose the hand, or my limited read on this player?

4. All things considered should I have made this move at that time?

Thoughts and comments greatly appreciated.

TheClubber

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April 23, 2015 - 6:00 pm

I can't answer your question, but I can give you an approach to analyze the situation. You should use a spreadsheet and an equity calculator. I'm going to round his stack to 12 BB to make the math a little neater.

First the basic EV math. Your total EV is the EV if he folds + the EV if he calls. Since we know the pot sizes, the two key unknowns are how often villain will call and your equity when he does call.

The EV if he folds is easy. It's +4.5BB (his 3 BB raise and 1/6 BB * 9 players)

The EV if he calls is more complicated. The pot size will be 25.5 BB Let's say P is the probability you win at showdown. Then your EV when he calls is 25.5P – 12.

Let's say Q is the probability he calls your shove. Then the probablility he folds would be 1-Q

The overall EV of the shove can be calculated as

EV = (1-Q)*4.5 + Q*(25.5P – 12)

usually in EV equations you compare to zero, but since you are BB, the EV of folding to his raise is -1 BB, so a negative EV shove that loses less than 1 BB is theoretically better than folding.

You can experiment with different values of P and Q in s spreadsheet, or you can take a deeper dive by enumerating the range of hands you think he will raise and the range that will call your shove to estimate Q, then use an equity calculator with his calling range to calculate P.

TheClubber

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April 23, 2015 - 6:23 pm

Let’s say he folds to your shove half the time, then you don’t really need that much equity for the shove to be profitable,

-1 < 0.5 * 4.5 + 0.5 (25.5P – 12)
-1 < 2.25 + 12.75P – 6
2.75 < 12.75P
0.21 < P

If he folds as much as half his hands, you need 20% equity the times he calls for it to be a profitable shove, Even against a range of {JJ+, AQs+, AKo} your QJo has over 25% equity. As you play around with different ranges, I think you will find this is a profitable shove. Another interesting question for your to investigate: Based on your assumptions of his ranges, what's the worst hand you can shove profitably?

P0larbear79

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April 23, 2015 - 8:23 pm

Thank you for the reply. It seems like I reached the same conclusion you did in more of a “feel” way. I hadn't thought of it as a purely mathmatical EV solution. It is not my strong suit and something I need to do a lot more work on. It looks like you are saying that it was a correct shove on my part but I need to play with the numbers to find the bottom of my range. (Homework) Is this type of math something I would have been able to work out in the moment? Is there a short cut to do at the table without tanking for 10 minutes to figue this out? Do you have any opinions on the other stuff I asked about?

Thanks again!

benny

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April 24, 2015 - 3:11 am

P0larbear79 said:

Being honest, at the time I didn't give a lot of thought to his range other than thinking that it wasn't the top because he should be shoving those hands.

Hey, whats up.

A couple of things: Some (older) players have a resentment against pushing allin, its not real poker to them. So he might be raising all of his range to 9k and never open shoving.

Also, if he is the type to shove 13bbs, for me it actually looks stronger to only raise to 3bbs, he might be fishing for action. Putting in almost a quarter of your stack preflop and folding is rarely a good idea and he probably knows this.

From the combination of these two speculations, I doubt you will get a lot of folds here. QJo is a decent hand though so its not a clear decision for me (flatcall?). I understand trying to use the bubble and your image as a woman though. Maybe it would work better if the guy had a bigger stack (say 20 bbs) that would let him fold to you and keep folding his way to the money.

folding_aces_pre_yo

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April 26, 2015 - 7:30 am