March 18, 2013
Alright, so I've been sitting on this hand for two weeks now for a couple reasons. I think the primary reason is that I wasn't ready to be criticized and wouldn't have reacted well because this one really seemed to change the trajectory of my Main Event. That said, I've been stewing over it and decided I can't put it to rest until I get some opinions from the TPE nation so here we go.
Another reason I've waited is that I couldn't decide which street was most interesting or how to pose the question. So I'm just going to go through the whole thing (leaving out the conclusion) but I'd love comments on each street.
The level was 200/600/1200. I started with approximately $115K so say 95 BBs. I started the day with $60K and built my stack all day staying active but only showing down with very strong hands. My bluffs weren't called and I felt good working it to $150K after a flopping a set and turning a boat against Dan Cates in a big hand. The table had progressively gotten younger as the day went on and was filled with good early 30s types, most of them European and relatively aggressive (two French, two Northern Europe) except a tight 40 something on each side of me, a TAG pro two to my left and Cates.
We were playing 8 handed and the villain in this hand is UTG+1. He is 30-35, French and was at the table from the start of the day. We hadn't tangled much but he was aggressive. He was also clearly a good player making some thoughtful folds in big hands and making moves other times. He had just made a big lay down losing a fair portion of his stack and I wondered whether he was tilting a little bit but I believed him to be very solid so didn't give that thought much credibility. Plus he still had about 110 bbs so a ton to work with. The big blind in this hand is another strong European player but less aggressive. He also had been at the table all day and either had a bad run of cards or was much more patient than his image would suggest…young, Euro, sunglasses, slick hair, etc. He had about 80 bbs I think. Definitely not a shoving range. I also wasn't too worried about the older guy and the TAG pro (SB) shoving.
UTG+1 opens standard, both for him and the table to $2.5K. Folds to me in the CO with T9hh.
Ok, go.
I call. I considered 3betting for a while but ended up decided to see a flop in position. BB calls.
Flop QsJh4s.
Villain cbets $3K into $9.7K.
Ok, go.
I'll stop here and then post my flop decision along with the rest of the hand later.
Clarke
May 30, 2012
So the BB checked? THe way you described the players I dont mind a call in position. Obv I am wishing for the 8h, lol. or any 8. I don't want to go crazy here. Since he made it 3k, I'm willing to see another card for cheap and hope to hit. For that price the turn sholdn't be that expensive either.
May 30, 2012
July 3, 2010
If neither blind is a fish I'm tempted to 3 bet. I don't want 2 good opponents in the hand even if I have a speculative hand that should be easy to play in most cases.
It gives me initiaitve in position and also disguises my hand in a lot of cases.
I'd make it like 5500 or something.
Flop I'd be 50/50 on checking vs. betting.
As played I am ok with just calling flop. Turn doesn't actually change much and I'd be a little suspect of being check raised by one of these players so I'd be very reluctant to bet. We're not really betting to protect equity or for value… more to build a bigger pot in case we improve. I don't have enough reason to think I could take it down with a turn bet so I think I'd just check.
March 18, 2013
Thanks for the reply fkcoolers.
i think in retrospect I like raising the flop and think if I played the hand over again, I’d do that. But we were still three handed and I didn’t mind playing this flop multiway in position.
If you 3bet preflop and get 4 bet, are you just folding? If so, I’m not sure I like the play. To me, the whole point of playing this hand in position is to stack off against a monster so I don’t want to 3bet/fold against the top of his range.
Also, I’m not sure I understand your point about not betting the turn. We’ve got tons of equity likely with 15 outs and I would think a bet here does indeed protect that equity especially against two players who haven’t really shown a ton of strength to this point. I guess his cbet against two callers on this very wet flop indicates something. We can probably eliminate low to middle pairs. So his range probably consists of sets, overpairs, ak and aq. Maybe tt but we’ve got a ten so discount that. He probably has some connected spade draws in there too. Ok so now I’m starting to agree with you. It felt like he had a lot of check/fold in his range at the time but I doubt he’s folding any of those hands except maybe ak. But I do feel like he’d continue firing the turn with sets…so what hands is really taking this line with? AA, KK, AK, AQ maybe? Throw KQ suited in there perhaps. I think he keeps firing with QJ suited if we put that in his opening range but I think probably not.
May 30, 2012
March 18, 2013
Ya, I agree with Coolers that we don't have a lot of reason to think we can take it down on the turn based on his range given his line so far. I expect the BB to fold a lot but it's not zero percent of the time and the villain is rarely folding as I've talked about. What would be your plan on the river if they check to you again? Give up? That, to me, is what I was trying to avoid. But I guess it's not terrible.
May 30, 2012
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Preflop is fine, 3 betting is also good. I prob opt to call majority of the time.
I dont liek raising the ass end of the straight draw on flops but his bet is very small and your call is going to allow BB to call wider. However we also have limited bluff out lines. Getting a decent Q to fold is going to be hard, and we are not raising all that much on the flop outside of 44/QJ and draws(in some world we raise AQ here if we flatted pre). So I would opt to flat a decent part of my range here, 9t inclusive.
The turn deciison is interesting, BBs range is easily the weakest as he is prety capped and had great odds both times. Main villains range is very hard to estimate. He shouldnt really ever be super strong though, so our range can be the strongest. He also probably doesnt have a good draw or I would expect another bet. I think my read on villain is JT/AJ/KJ and QT/Q9 type hands, and al lhis hands we expect to fold.
Do we have to bet this turn? Yea probably. We have a lot of equity, we cant really rep(I guess we can have some Jx) any river we miss(if they both check again). We also have the very bottom of our range here, well not anymore but on the flop this is the bottom of our range, we have an OE with only 1 nut draw. Must of our other hands are going to be actual pairs or strong flushdraws and KT(which has two nut draws as well as an over card). A lot of villains will expect us to raise strong draws on the flop so our range is weighted more towards pair and weak draws, so betting 100% of our hands balances nicely(especially because our weak draw nuted the turn without acutally hitting).
Sizing is important here though. Villain is either c/calling or c/fing, there isnt really a middle ground for him since we can expect all strong hands and all flush draws to continue here on turn. So I say we bet like 8.5k. BB is super capped so and in a different but similar result position in that he cant really afford to call turn without his pair hands(because value willl be extremely ahrd to come by on river). 8.5k is also a good amount ot bet with our Qx type hands for value, and even with a strong KJ or AJ.
Oncevillain calls the turn, the river is pretty interesting in that we expect his range to be very capped, but also the 9 probably hits his range more than our range(he can have J9/Q9 more than us, but we can have KT a lot more). What value hands do we bet on river? KQo(I assume we 3 bet KQs pre a decent amount), AQo occasionally, KT, and probably QT/Q9(although Q9 pre is marginal). We can also throw in a hand like 8Tss or even J9ss. So theoretically we can have a lot of value here(although I dont think some of these hands bet 11k on turn). But we still need to get villain to fold. I assume we can get all Js to fold and get looked up by most Qs. I think a bet on river is the way to go, but has to be a value-y bet as again that 9 isnt amazing for our range. I would proably bet like 26k.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
July 20, 2012
I think flatting preflop is fine though I probably prefer a 3bet. This is a decent spot for a 3bet, it will make your hand easier to play post flop and 9Ts is at the bottom of my flatting range, making it a good candidate for the re-raise. There's nothing wrong with a fold pre here either.
On that flop I'm not going to be putting in any raise, of course a lot of players like to play draws strongly but on this texture I think it just gets you into more trouble. Also you have position on both opponents so I like the call on the flop with your 8 outs + BDFD.
On the turn I don't see you getting away with picking up the pot by betting here. Firstly the IR cbet that flop, it is a fairly ugly flop for him to cbet into 2 players if he missed and so there's a good chance he has a piece of it, but not enough to want to barrel for value. Secondly the big bling overcalls on the flop, which certainly suggests he has a piece, it could be a draw or it could be a monster [edit: on second view I think his range is going to be capped]. Best case scenario here is that you have 15 outs against a made hand, it's certainly not a disaster to bet here with that equity and you will pick up the pot sometimes. There is a chance you will get c/r here too though, which would not be fun. Overall I prefer checking behind turn.
As played the river is unlikely to give you the best hand. It looks like the IR is prepared to c/c here and so probably not a good spot to bluff. His hand here could be as strong as KQ/AQ, either way if you bet then it is to get Jx or Qx to fold, which is fairly unlikely and will probably require a big bet to have a chance. If you do bet here then you are repping a fairly thin range, something like 44 (though this probably raises the flop), JQ, KT, maybe J9, Q9 if they are in your likely preflop flatting range. Having said that, your only likely bluff here is the exact hand you have as I wouldn't expect you to be floating this flop 3 way. So I don't think it's a bad spot to bluff if he is a thinking player, but at the same time I think he is going to be ch/c here fairly often, he still has strong holdings, possibly including the nuts, in his range. I probably take the low variance route and check behind, hoping that by some miracle our SD value is good.
May 30, 2012
March 18, 2013
Having read through the posts again, I think I agree with Custers point that the villain is either check calling or check folding on the turn. I really think he keeps barreling 3 ways with a set so what hands is he check raising this board with multiway? A couple of you were worried about that when it came to betting the turn but I just don’t see it and never considered it in game.
Clarke
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
I made the mistake of not expounding furhter when I said either c/c or c/f(although I do think he is pretty much never c/r'ing). What I eman tby this, mis that there are not many border line hands that may call or may fold. He isnt really waiting to see what you bet, he is either giving up or plannig to pretty much c/c any reasonably under pot bet. When hand ranges are like this we should really be betting towards the samller size, even with our value, for a lot of reasons. Betting bigger will put us in awkward spots and make river value harder, and in the case he does c/r. We also have to think about our entire range, we dont have too many super strong value hands here and villain knows that spo our bet should as a whole be favoring our range.
In regards to your first question I think the hands he is most liekloy to c/c down is going to be QTs or Q9s. Occasionally see AJ/KJ if he is likely to hero.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
What's the results Clarke? I'm dying to know.
I like the line the TPE guys came up with. I think you 100% have to bet the river if you bet the turn (which you have to). Cant build a pot just to give it away to Jx. I love Marc's point about the difference in stack utility when you have over 100 bb vs having 60 bb.
As far as river sizing, if I thought the guy was a good player, I'd bet 18. If I thought he was a fish, I'd bet 26.
April 8, 2013
I think preflop is fine. I can totally understand 3betting being an option but i dont think flatting is a mistake.
Flop seems reasonable as well. I dont think raising is a terrible option as this usually gets a fold from the bb and allows you to bluff alot of turn cards when called by utg+1.
Once you flat and the turn gives you a flush draw, I am betting when checked to 100% of the time. What hands can you possibly expect to check raise given the flop action and the turn card. Most players would never play a set this way so I really dont think you are ever getting checkraised here.
Once you get called and river something with showdown value i dont think there is any reason to bet unless you have a strong read. The board texture has changed very little and he is going to call with almost anything he calls with on the turn. Unfortunately, your range for betting the turn is pretty wide, so he can fairly comfortably call with most of his calling range on the turn. That fact alone may make it better to check behind on the turn. Your heart draw is becomes incredibly sneaky and you can expect to get value on any king or 8 river.
After considering the river, I actually think checking behind on the turn might be better. I guess it really depends on what you think of villains range from utg+1 along with how often he is cbetting the flop. If his range is tighter, i think checking behind on the turn is probably the better option.
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