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WSOP circuit - spewy call or punt return?
Mr. Bingskin
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February 21, 2017 - 5:37 pm
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I was playing in wsop circuit event #3, $580 buy-in, late reg closed, blinds 1200/600/200.

I had just moved to a new table and won two big pots out of the blinds, showing down A10o in one of them out of the SB. I was button with approx. 220k. Action folds around to the cut-off and thus, villain. He is a younger player, early to mid 20s, sweatshirt, and headphones. We have a brief history together. He was at my starting table, but busted in the first hour after losing 85% of his stack to me (KK vs 99 on a 8J1035 board). He then busted a few hands later running 77 into QQ AIPF. This made me believe he may be an internet/tourney player with some deepstack leaks. 

Villain has about 40-45k. Effective stacks are about 36BB. We are 8 handed. Again, folds to cutoff and villain opens to 3k. 

Hero – button – calls with KdiamondJspade,  both blinds fold. Heads up. $9,400 in the pot.

FLOP – 8spade10diamondK heart– Villain checks, Hero bets 3k into $9400, villain raises to 10k.

The action having folded to him, I imagine he opens any ace, pocket pair, suited connectors, broadway combinations, and some one gappers such as Q10 and possibly J9. At this point, having only seen villain play pocket pairs, 8s and 10s are easily in his range, however I’m discounting KK and JJ as I have blockers (even tho it is not impossible for him to have those hands). I chose to call the 10k for 7k more getting a little over 3:1 with top pair. I think raising could be an option, if I had a read that villain was good enough to check-raise fold or if I was more confident he was at the lower end of his range and would stack off light. However, given the percentage of his stack committed I was pretty confident I would get shoved on. That being said I was not ready to release top pair in this spot, but also not excited about stacking off with it either. Pot is now $29,400

TURN – 10club – Villain shoves 30-32k. I go into the tank…What should we do?

PILLDRIV3R
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February 21, 2017 - 11:16 pm
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I don’t know if this is a good evaluation so I would like some feedback from the regs on here (please).

I don’t think he is going to pot shove a boat on the turn – which means his flop check raise was to protect a marginal hand or a straight draw bluff.

When you call his reraise it narrows down you to Kx (Better hands reraise on this flop, worse hands fold)

On this turn I would discount nut hands because of the bet size. So he is bluffing with a marginal hand (AA, AK, KQ, K9,) or a missed straight draw (AQ, AJ, QJ, J9 maybe Q9).

He might be able to give up the turn with the straight draw. So I put him on AA, AK, KQ, but you lose to – so fold.

I know this hand analysis is very specific – so any tips would be appreciated.

almofadinhas
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February 23, 2017 - 11:29 pm
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Why are you raising flop? What is your target? Seems that V is holding a marginal hand that wont pay much, or slowplaying a monster.

When you say “However, given the percentage of his stack committed I was pretty confident I would get shoved on.”, you should be making your decision OTF, when V ck raises you, if you call flop, most likely you should be calling turn too, I think A, Q or 9 will be bad cards for calling a shove OTT.

What is the range you gave V to ck/raise flop?

Cdubs77
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March 13, 2017 - 8:45 pm
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So just really starting to get more in depth with Hand History Review.  I think 

PILLDRIV3R said
I don’t know if this is a good evaluation so I would like some feedback from the regs on here (please).

I don’t think he is going to pot shove a boat on the turn – which means his flop check raise was to protect a marginal hand or a straight draw bluff.

When you call his reraise it narrows down you to Kx (Better hands reraise on this flop, worse hands fold)

On this turn I would discount nut hands because of the bet size. So he is bluffing with a marginal hand (AA, AK, KQ, K9,) or a missed straight draw (AQ, AJ, QJ, J9 maybe Q9).

He might be able to give up the turn with the straight draw. So I put him on AA, AK, KQ, but you lose to – so fold.

I know this hand analysis is very specific – so any tips would be appreciated.  

Is it possible the V has AA, AK, KQ and when Hero only calls the check raise, he assumes H is drawing.  When turn pairs board V shoves to protect his hand?  Thoughts?  

V would almost have to put H on exact hand of Kx to shove there with a monster.  On flip side would V check raise QQs, JJS, QJ, AT, KT…? This is a rainbow flop too so I’m thinking V is either bluffing and trying to represent your hand basically, or he has a bigger K or AA.  Plus the turn is R too.  So he’s not afraid of flush draw, but maybe straight draw.  I think when he check raises you and you call he jams the turn worried you are drawing.  If he has AK, he is blocking you from KJ, KQ…

SOOOOO…..don’t keep us in any more suspense, what was the outcome?!?

theginger45

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March 13, 2017 - 8:50 pm
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Pre is marginal, flop is fine, although since you block most of villain’s potential bluffs (QJ, J9) and your flop bet-call range is mostly Kx, I wouldn’t expect villain to have many (if any) bluffs on the turn. It’s hard for them to anticipate you folding the turn very often. I think call flop with the expectation of villain often shutting down, and then fold turn to a bet is okay.

Be careful about flatting offsuit hands pre. This spot is okay versus a wide opening range, but don’t do it against tighter ranges.

Mr. Bingskin
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March 13, 2017 - 9:53 pm
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You guys are spot on! I ended up calling. Hero had 7club9club. River was a blank, 3diamond. When I thought some more about it after the fact I felt like I made a bad call and got lucky. I see now how just calling flop polarizes my range. Instead of calling flop, would folding or 4-bet jamming be better? Does the risk of running into a monster, given the line, out weight the prospect of stacking V? We were pretty confident we were up against a monster or a draw, obviously it is situation dependent, but if you are in this situation would you risk 10% of your stack to take advantage of the times they are drawing and need to improve? And, to that point…where is the line? Would you 4-bet jam for 25%-50% or more? 

theginger45

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March 28, 2017 - 1:15 pm
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I figure you mean villain had 97s. Seems like a good line from them, stacks are right for them to put you in some tough turn spots, and the nature of the flop is such that you might have a range advantage, which makes building a flop c/r range pretty good for villain. They can certainly c/r their 88/TT/T8 super profitably on flop, and probably balance that with a good amount of 97/J9/QJ since those hands block your KQ/KJ type stuff.

Let’s dissect the rest of your last post. Would folding or 3-bet jamming flop be better? Well, think about what the benefits of each of them might be. If you’re folding flop, you’re saying that calling is unprofitable, which would mean villain would have to be super strong on the flop. Maybe that’s true, I don’t know. But if villain isn’t super strong on the flop, then one of two things is possible – either they’re not super strong on flop and they’re always continuing the turn, in which case you just call flop and call almost all turns, or they’re not super strong on flop and giving up some turns, in which case you just call flop and check back turn. Not really many difficult decisions anywhere unless you call flop without anticipating turn action.

3-bet jamming flop seems like the kind of play people make when they “just want to end the hand” or when they don’t know what else to do, or they’re afraid of a turn decision. It clearly doesn’t get called by worse or get better to fold, so there’s not really any reason to do it. You don’t control whether the hand ends now or not – your job is to anticipate villain’s likely actions and make the best play based on that. You’re adapting to circumstances, not trying to manipulate them.

As for “does the risk of running into a monster outweigh the prospect of stacking villain”, well, that’s a simple EV calculation based on ranges. If it’s profitable, take the spot. EV takes into account all factors.

Forget about what % of your stack it is. Focus on whether it’s profitable. Humans are naturally inclined to protect what they have instead of looking for more – it’s called ‘loss aversion’. Try to avoid it as much as possible. “Wait for a better spot” should not be in your vocabulary.

“Would you 4-bet jam for 25-50% or more?” – it depends. If it was profitable, yes. If it wasn’t profitable, no. Try to get out of the mentality of thinking in terms of stack preservation. Developing your ability to estimate EV comes from running lots of calculations. That’s the only way to get better at the math.

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