I am not sure where to post this so I figured here was as good as any as what I am trying to do is directly related to altering playing strategy. I'll go ahead and ask my question and then I'll explain what I am doing and then I would love to head what others think (and if they can help).
Question: Does anyone know how to write Pokertracker queries, specifically can you write two statistical catagories that show VP$IP and PFR sorted by hands involving the hero.
Reasoning Behind the Inquiry: After reading through the multitude of hand histories and beats as well as seeing and experiencing my own I started to wonder if the generalized statistics that HM and PT accumulate may be insufficient for the conclusions we are trying to draw. Taking that and thinking about things a little more I started to stumble onto what I think is the more relevant information, statistics about what players hand playing tendencies are versus the hero.
Hypothesis #1: People (and poker players) are in general creatures of habit.
Hypothesis #2: Players tend to play other players (over cards and boards) after the first couple of encounters.
So the first hypothesis isn't too much of a stretch, it is what all of the statistical collection is based on, that over a large enough sample you will be able to extract trend information about what to expect in general. The second hypothesis is a little more of a leap, but I don't think it is unreasonable. After we (the hero) run into a particular villain several times (I am not sure what this is yet for statistical convergence so I will start with 30 as the base and have to explore this figure further) the confrontations tend to become less about the cards and all about playing the situations/player. This is the specific information I am trying to extract as the long run statistical information is interesting for getting an idea about what people will tend to do when they play in general, but what is much more interesting is what is the range a player is willing to play over time against us as we build history. I am convinced that within this information we will be able to extract much more interesting information about potential holdings, whether or not players tend to be just plain aggro against us, or they are meek.
I am interested to explore if this information and I think it will aid us in making better plays and avoiding potentially nasty beats because we can gain better insight into how players play us (i.e. a guy may run 35/20 in general, but may only run 9/9 against us, leading us to be more cautious when playing pots with them vs. the players who play 20/15 in general vs 40/5 against us.). I am not sure what they statistics will look like, and i am not sure I will see players enough to glean the information I am looking for, but I think it could be potentially insightful.
I am interested to hear what people think about the idea and if anyone knows how to do this (I will be working on trying to figure it out and will post if i do solve it).
Lespaulgman
June 22, 2010
You had me at statistics. LOL I will take a look and see what I can come up with as well. Please keep us posted on your research. Your reasoning is logical and I want to put more thought to it. I have PT on my Mac and HM on my Window based machines. It may take me a few days before I can take a serious look but I am interested in further dialog on this matter.
"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."
Okay, so after some bantering back and forth with the folks over at Pokertracker the short answer is this isn't possible to generate for the HUD currently. So in order to gather and gleen the information I am going to have to get fancy and build myself a custom program to gather and accumulate this information and present it. Thankfully all those years in engineering school will help me out in this one. I am going to work on this over the weekend and target getting it working with Pokerstars initially, then after I figure out if this is relevant or not I will work on migrating to ther sites. Keep you posted on the developments.
July 3, 2010
Excellent idea, lespaul. You can be aware of your own table image but it's real hard to keep track of who is coming at you and from what angles unless they're on your direct left and right.
Obviously you'll need a good sized sampling of hands for this data to be of any relevance, though … 12/12 over 16 hands won't tell you much if the guy runs 20/18 overall etc.
My guess is that what you'll find is that the data doesn't add up to much, though.
The player pool for our stakes is so vast that until you have hundreds of hands for these spots it's simply going to boil down to what cards they had when you two got involved and they were likely never making plays based on who you are.
The majority of the time they're simply looking at your stats on their HUD and playing accordingly if they are decent players and nothing more than that.
FkCoolers said:
Excellent idea, lespaul. You can be aware of your own table image but it's real hard to keep track of who is coming at you and from what angles unless they're on your direct left and right.
Obviously you'll need a good sized sampling of hands for this data to be of any relevance, though … 12/12 over 16 hands won't tell you much if the guy runs 20/18 overall etc.
My guess is that what you'll find is that the data doesn't add up to much, though.
The player pool for our stakes is so vast that until you have hundreds of hands for these spots it's simply going to boil down to what cards they had when you two got involved and they were likely never making plays based on who you are.
The majority of the time they're simply looking at your stats on their HUD and playing accordingly if they are decent players and nothing more than that.
I think that it may be the case sometimes, but I am hopeful that I can unlock something. My inner scientist is telling me that in general people are predictable given repeatable circumstances so I am trying to unlock this. I am hoping that statistics alongs these lines will also converge faster as they should be more relevant to this specific situation, but like you said it is going to take a lot of experimentation to get to something relevant given our player pool. That being said it may be something that needs to collected and evaluated at higher stakes so when I am prepared and tested I would be interested if someone who plays higher is interested in participating in the study since that player pool is smaller and the opponents tend to be thinkers.
July 3, 2010
Good call. It's definitely relevant there where the player pool is smaller and history is extensive.
First impressions in poker last such a long time… even if you're good if someone has labeled you a fish it's going to take a ton of hands for them to change their opinion. Same applies to LAG, nitty, etc.
Even here in a few videos you'll hear one of the pros say they always thought a person was tight until other regs say the person is a maniac.
Good luck with all of it. Will be a lot of work but it sounds like you have a solid plan for it.
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