Just curious as to why you think 88-99 are in villain#3's 3 bet range. It seems like the perfect spot to set mine with medium pairs, and 3 betting only forces him to fold to a 4 bet or play a bloated pot with a hand that usually doesnt flop too well. Same with a hand like a10ss-ajss. Seems like he would just be flatting these hands because they flop pretty well multiway. I think hes much more likely to 3 bet the offsuit versions.

Also, if we are planning to fold to a 5 bet from anyone (besides villain 2 possibly) arent we just turning jj into basically a bluff. Our hand could be more so any two cards because we dont expect to get flatted hardly at all. I mean I'd rather be 4 betting ax here rather than jj if we are folding to a 5 bet because its blocker is much more significant. Also, there IS a significant difference between flatting jj and a smaller pair like 55 here.  jj flops much better than small pairs and we aren't always just c/folding if we dont hit a set.

Ok, opener is super aggro in EP, which means he can have just about any small ball type hand so his opening range may be 25% – almost 40% depending how much of a maniac he is from EP.  Then he gets flatted by a solid player, so his hand range is wide open as well.  Then we get a Latin guy (my image for these guys when I played them in AC is usually a little aggro) in a great squeeze spot squeezing.  A 4 bet here would be to 15kish, which is over 30% of our total stack, so shipping it here is standard if the math is right.  If the Latin guy is capable of a squeeze, (only the OP can know this, as he was sitting there), I think the only play is to shove.  

For the math:  UTG+1 has what I call a typical small ball range to open:  22+, A2s+, any two broadway, suited connectors, suited one gapped amd suited two gapped 54s+, 64s+, and 74s+.  This is about 26%.  The Hijack flat the same range minus the top 3% since he only flatted JJ+ and AK and subract some of the trouble hands, this is 20%.  A good squeeze range would be about 12% about 4 – 5% value and about 7% bluffs for balance.

Each player can only call the 4 bet with a range something like JJ+ and AK at most.  

There is t10,375 in the pot.  All players have you covered, so your stack is the effective stack.  The calling range is 3%.  So the blinds fold 97% of the time each.  UTG+1 folds 88% of the time, HJ always folds (his calling range would have already raised) the button folds 75% of the time.  For a total fold equity of 62%.  Our hand equity is 37% when called.   For the equation I will use the HJ calling, as that would give the smallest total pot size for us to win, any other caller gives us a little more overlay.  So the equation is:

(62% * t10,375) + 38%([t84,725 * 37%] – t40,000) = t3,144 +cEV.  The cEV is almost 7 BBs which is a pretty substantial addition to your stack with about 80 BBs.  

If we take AK and JJ out of their call range (worst case scenario for a call), then the blinds fold 98.5%, UTG+1 folds 94% and HJ folds 87% for a total fold equity of 79% and our hand equity is 18% for an equation:

(79% * t10,375) + 21%([t84,725 * 37%] – t40,000) = t2,998 which is still pretty substantial due to our fold equity being so high if they call this tight.  And of course if they are willing to call off lighter, where we start crushing their calling range, that is even better, but honestly, who is calling off that light in this spot in a 3.5k MTT.

Just because no one was able to come to the conclusion that i came to, does not make me wrong.  If the ranges are correct, I demonstrated that my shove is superior to the fold.  I would personally argue that a shove is also superior to 4b/fold.  A shove accomplishes several things here, other than just being +cEV for this single hand:  1) It seems you may not have an edge on this field at this time, so passing up an all in with 80 BBs with positive expectation in the hopes that you will have more of an edge of positive expectation may be wrong.  We always have to accurately asses our edge or lack of edge on the table. 2)  It give you fear equity.  the feeling that others have to deal with in the pot with you that you can just shove all in at any point affects the way they have to play pots with you.  3)  You started the pot with 80 BBs, but that number is relative.  The size of the pot 10,375, the pot is over 25% of your stack.  You can’t set mine, so your decision is whether your JJ is ahead of his range or not.  If you are ahead of his range, why not get it in ahead.

I’m not saying this is a definite shove either.  Look at my first post.  If the CO is 3 betting with only JJ+ and AK, then you have to fold.  JJ is the bottom of his range and you have no odds to set mine.  But if he would 3 bet light in the spot due to the dynamics, JJ is far ahead of his range.  This is something that only you can answer.  You were the one sitting there witnessing the dynamics of the table, seeing the ranges, getting a feel for how often each player is pushing that action and so on.  

I’ve also done work in the past looking at $EV of these decisions.  Assuming you are far from the bubble, and asuming your are the one of the best players at the table you currently are playing at, where you will be able to increase your equity, we can estimate your equity.  Let’s asume a 10% advantage over the field.  Also the assumption is that maybe 10% busted so far and that your stack is average.  So assume that your real $ equity may be about $4k to fold.  65% you increase your stack by 25% which may increase your $ equity to about $5k (you don’t get full value for chips won).   15% of the time you win and have a stack about $84k with much greater utilityand an equity of at about $7.5k (again doubling up does not fully double your equity) and about 20% you call and bust.  If my estimations are accurate, you have an increase to about $4.3k equity with the shove.

If he has a squeeze range where JJ is ahead of his range and you can play it.  What is you plan if you flat?  The SPR would be about 2:1  Are you folding to his c-bet if there are no overcards?  Are you folding if overcards hit?  What about if the overcard is a Q?  Calling just seems to put you in a spot to have a very tough decision later in the hand.  

So calling seems to be problematic.  What about 4b to 15k.  Are you folding to a shove getting 2.4:1 pot odds?  If his range has AK you are making a serious error by folding.  So if you are pretty much pot putting in 1/3 of your stack and committing yourself to have to call off, you are getting all in with 80BBs anyway.  

The only argument I can see for not shoving if his range is wide enough to play this hand is if by 4b less than a shove it may make him spew shove lighter than his call range.  

But maybe, think of it this way, if you would agree that in the Parx Saturday MTT for $120 it is the right move, but would not pull the trigger because it was a $3.5k, then maybe your poker mindset is not optimal at that high a stake yet.  Not saying it is or isn't, as again, I wasn't there to witness the flow of the table.  But if the flow and spot were perfect and you couldn't pull the trigger because of the buy in, then this is something you should look into addressing before playing this high again.

It is never a good argument to say that 99% of anything will agree.  In the 1500s 99% of the people argued the world was flat.  99% of any set of persons agreeing does not necessarily make it right.  

But anyway, this is something I picked up from the training site I was on last, Float the Turn.  Jonathan Little was the coach there and I’m pretty sure if he saw this hand and agreed with the ranges, that JJ is a shove.  One of his moves was always teaching was that if the last bet was 10% of your total stack, and your hand is ahead of his range, then shove.  The only time to raise smaller is to induce a bluff shove over your raise.  Again this a payer dependent decision.  

But again, please read everything I said.  All of you are focusing on my shove recommendation without considering all of my posts.  I clearly said that if his range is not wide this is a fold.  I only advocated a shove if this player is able to squeeze light which would open his range wide enough to shove profitably.  If he does not squeeze here light, then we must fold.  That is why I said that the OP is the only one who can really know the range of the CO 3 bettor.  

Additionally, sinced this was live the OP could take the time to get a tell on the player.  Almost everyone gives tells live, you just have to stare at them long enough for them to be self conscious of themselves.  That awareness of being stared down causes them to react to your stare.  That reaction is the tell.  Some are good at hiding their true emotions and some are good at sending you a reverse tell.  But most, if they do not have the multitude of hours spent at a live table under the pressures of this moment cannot keep their true emotions of the moment supressed completely for long.  It’s not in the face either.  Being self conscious they are focusing on the facial muscles, all the while their left hand is massaging their right elbow to soothe themselves, or their hands make a steeple shape, or their feet tuck under their chair.  It is finding these tells and deciphering them that can make the difference in hands like this.  I’m telling you, if you see a guy, who is not giving a reverse tell, massaging his arm and you don’t pull the trigger you just left your chips on the table and let someone else take them.