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April 4, 2014
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We have been playing for 5 hours and 500 players left out of 16000. so no more splashy players at this point.
The table has been playing simple poker where usually one player opens with min raise and takes the pot or get reraised and folds. last hour really limited number of flops or showdowns seen. Also, the original raiser (min stack) had folded at least once to reraise so he knows how to fold and the BTN had defended his BTN and BB before and getting folds.
My plan was to 3-bet and get the pot before the flop. If BTN would have 4-bet or pushed all in, I fold and if he calls I am set mining and looking at the flop. I was assuming the original raiser would fold to the action. As he did not, I am putting him in a really tight range, AA, KK, QQ, (AKs), (JJ)
BTN folds and suddenly I need to pay only 300k to call and I call. But I feel it was a bad call. I think earlier in the tournament it would have been OK, but so much of his range is totally crushing me that the call does not make sense. Even if it would be EV+ with that range I think too often he has me beaten and especially this late in the tournament if I win this pot will not make the difference will I make the final table or not. and folding leaves me in good shape. but loosing will make me the short stack.
Then I was thinking that even If I would have seen that he is holding AK I might like a fold as that would leave me with average stack and possibility to wait for better spots. I think that situations were I am calling and the best I can have is a 50/50 this late in the tournament is not a good strategy. If I need to flip I like to be the one pushing to have a chance of winning with a fold.
Please comment. How would you play this hand but also, in general, this point in the tournament where an average is 20-30 BB.
PokerStars Hand #190582234732: Tournament #2378947186, $9.80+$1.20 USD Hold’em No Limit – Level XXVII (10000/20000) – 2018/09/02 21:47:22 EET [2018/09/02 14:47:22 ET]
Table ‘2378947186 297’ 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: J. Dreissig (444240 in chips)
Seat 2: tea727 (567486 in chips)
Seat 3: Solbeo (625102 in chips)
Seat 4: DerNetworker (846385 in chips)
Seat 5: AssosManiki (377907 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (941543 in chips)
Seat 7: comant (374958 in chips)
Seat 8: DieTryin87 (230072 in chips)
Seat 9: krv133 (806571 in chips)
J. Dreissig: posts the ante 2500
tea727: posts the ante 2500
Solbeo: posts the ante 2500
DerNetworker: posts the ante 2500
AssosManiki: posts the ante 2500
HERO: posts the ante 2500
comant: posts the ante 2500
DieTryin87: posts the ante 2500
krv133: posts the ante 2500
AssosManiki: posts small blind 10000
HERO: posts big blind 20000
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to HERO [Jd Jh]
comant: folds
DieTryin87: folds
krv133: folds
J. Dreissig: folds
tea727: raises 20000 to 40000
Solbeo: folds
DerNetworker: raises 88000 to 128000
AssosManiki: folds
HERO: raises 122000 to 250000
tea727: raises 314986 to 564986 and is all-in
DerNetworker: folds
HERO: calls 314986
* FLOP * [Th 3d 6s]
* TURN * [Th 3d 6s] [9h]
* RIVER * [Th 3d 6s 9h] [Ah]
* SHOW DOWN *
HERO: shows [Jd Jh] (a pair of Jacks)
tea727: shows [Kd Ks] (a pair of Kings)
tea727 collected 1290472 from pot
* SUMMARY *
Total pot 1290472 | Rake 0
Board [Th 3d 6s 9h Ah]
Seat 1: J. Dreissig folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: tea727 showed [Kd Ks] and won (1290472) with a pair of Kings
Seat 3: Solbeo folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: DerNetworker (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: AssosManiki (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: HERO (big blind) showed [Jd Jh] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 7: comant folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: DieTryin87 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 9: krv133 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
February 8, 2017
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I don’t think you ever want to 4-bet this hand and fold vs the shorter stack, so once we 4bet I think we have to call it off. I guess we could find a fold if BTN shoves (regardless of what MP player did), but I think we might not want to 4bet a hand as strong as JJ if our plan is to fold facing more preflop action. There’s a lot of value to taking down the pot preflop, but I think JJ is too strong to ‘raise and get the pot before the flop’ if we’re not very happy when we get action.
Facing a BTN 3bet with TT-QQ in the BB is always going to be tough. We’ll almost always be ahead of the BTN range, but neither of our options for continuing the hand are great. A cold 4-bet looks so strong that we condense villains’ shoving ranges such that we are usually at best getting it in vs AK. Flatting the 3bet puts us in a huge postflop pot OOP and often multiway, with a pair that is going to have a hard time realizing its equity due to overcards. It also turns our hand relatively face-up against decent hand readers, as our 3bet flatting range should be extremely narrow. I tend to prefer flatting despite the drawbacks. The risk is lower and I trust myself to navigate difficult postflop scenarios at least as well as my opposition. I prefer not always realizing my equity against wider ranges instead of playing for a huge all-in against a condensed range, even though that also means I will miss some opportunities to steal the pot preflop.
November 28, 2015
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Given all the action, once TEA shoves, I would have to assume we are behind. I tend to think in this spot, when the BB(you) 4-bets, his shove becomes pretty polarized. QQ KK AA AKs. Unless you have a really good read on this player and believe him to be shoving wider, I think we just have to fold here.
April 4, 2014
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Thanks for the comment.
The more I think the situation and the read that I had I should have been able to fold the JJ preflop even if the push is coming from small stack.
Only if I believe that the player would could have AK i should think calling.
JJ vs. AK I should be calling always… especially small stacks.
February 5, 2015
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I think the TEAbag could be 5betting a wider range than JJ + from the HJ. It is a tricky spot, no doubt. I guess calling is the way to go, but I don’t like it.
I can’t fold JJ to his 5bet though. Once he shoves, I’m calling. I could easily persuade myself ingame that HJ is 5bet shoving 88+ here with his relatively small stack, but when he turns over KK I kick myself for being a dimwit.
Tough one.
November 28, 2015
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Flicka I see what you mean. the math implies a mistake not to call so I agree with you. This has also been a pretty big leak with me where I was just being too lazy to do the math. I payed for those mistakes in the long run for sure.
“It ain’t over yet Mcgavin, the way I see it, we’ve only just begun” -Happy Gilmore 
February 8, 2017
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Yea, the math is really important specifically for the decision of whether to call the 5bet.
We need to call 314986 to win a pot of 1290472. We need 24.4% equity to be getting the right price. If we stone cold know that villain never 5bet shoves AK off of a 28bb stack then I guess we can fold, but villain is making a pretty huge mistake by not doing so. I can’t imagine folding getting this price, you’d need villain to be a massive nit for it to be correct.
Getting your money in behind doesn’t necessarily mean you made a bad call. I think the important decision point to focus on is the 4bet. If you start folding in spots where you are getting such ridiculously good odds, you’d better find a time machine and go back to 2005, or stop playing tournaments.
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