This situation has come up several times in recent weeks so I present this as an example:

PokerStars, 180MTT, $4.10+$0.40 No Limit – Level III (25/50, 6 ante)

9-max Seat #3 is the button

Seat 1: chipmaniac87 (1167 in chips)

Seat 2: Rus_us8 (1612 in chips)

Seat 3: TommyCrown (3863 in chips, 77bb)

Seat 4: Martalas300 (3946 in chips, 79bb)

Seat 5: JennaTILTson (2535 in chips)

Seat 6: Niktopdollar (1354 in chips)

Seat 7: 1sualchan1 (1105 in chips)

Seat 8: ze_pilas (1592 in chips)

Seat 9: bollie blauw (1061 in chips)

Martalas300: posts small blind 25

JennaTILTson: posts big blind 50

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to TommyCrown [Kh Ks]

Niktopdollar: folds

1sualchan1: folds

(MP) ze_pilas: raises 50 to 100 (Stats after 489 hands, 21/17 – MP 30%PFR, 3B 9.1)

bollie blauw: folds

chipmaniac87: folds

Rus_us8: folds

(BTN) TommyCrown: raises 155 to 255 (37 hands at table, PFR 13%, 3B 0%)

(SB) Martalas300: calls 230 (Stats after 37 hands, 43/6, donk bet 63%/8)

JennaTILTson: folds

ze_pilas: calls 155

Pot: 869 *FLOP * [8c 6d 7s]

Martalas300: bets 1300 (26bb)

ze_pilas: folds

For background I doubled up in hand 21/37 by raising a MP limper from the BTN with QTs and flopping a flush to his set, so I may seem a little maverick even though I haven’t played a significant hand since then and villian may perceive me as having a wide enough range not to hit this flop too often.

I will assume there is no value in just calling here, as calling and folding the turn seems a disaster, whilst if he has a draw he looks committed and I should get full value now. Additionally, he has bet into 2 players so assume some equity and he did call a 3 bet so I am only considering suited non pairs. Therefore I would put his hands into 3 categories: I’m crushing, I’m crushed, Combo-Draws which I will assign 1/3^rd each, and although I may not be exhaustive in the following hand selection I hope it is representative.

I’m crushing – TT, JJ, QQ, A8s and one GS/OC bluff JTs – KKeq = 82.05%

I’m crushed – 88,66,77,87s,76s,86s,T9s,54s,AA(slow played but now concerned) – KKeq = 12.53%

Combo-Draws – 65s,98s,99,55,A9s,A5s – KKeq = 58.15%

Total KKeq = 50.91%

So against a fairly representative range of hands I’m flipping whilst pot odds, assuming my only option is to gii and he never folds, is 3863 into prospective pot of 8073 for 47.85%.

As this is so marginal, it’s relatively early in the tournament and I have a healthy enough stack, should this be a tactical fold even though I believe I have the best hand currently? Even if we take out some c/r candidates from his range 88,T9s,98s we only improve to 52.01%?

If we are folding, what pot odds or stack depth would folk require at this stage of the tournament for risk/reward?