November 7, 2013
I remember during the game I felt more of a gut feeling I was ahead and something felt off so I called…thinking about this after what tips me off is the river lead. It doesn't make sense for him to c/turn and lead river if he has something feels like he is trying to take it away without showdown.
Good call?
Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60/t120 Blinds + t15 – 9 players – View hand 2370145
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): BB = 40.7, t4889
harycarniel (SB): BB = 55.4, t6649
“Seikei”&5RS (BB): BB = 61.2, t7349
Getcha17 (UTG): BB = 23.9, t2865
2G00D2F0LD (UTG+1): BB = 78.2, t9383
uk1068 (UTG+2): BB = 178.2, t21385
PRCB07 (MP1): BB = 17.4, t2087
Sandmann4220 (MP2): BB = 27.3, t3270
ReVoB (CO): BB = 25.5, t3057
Pre Flop: (t315) Hero is BTN with 9 9
6 folds, Hero raises to t240, harycarniel calls t180, “Seikei”&5RS calls t120
Flop: (t855) T 5 7 (3 players)
harycarniel checks, “Seikei”&5RS bets t410, Hero calls t410, harycarniel folds
Turn: (t1675) 6 (2 players)
“Seikei”&5RS checks, Hero bets t480, “Seikei”&5RS calls t480
River: (t2635) 5 (2 players)
“Seikei”&5RS bets t1264, Hero calls t1264
November 22, 2013
If you had a feel then its a good call and I tend to go with my reads. I'd rather lose money following my instinct than ignore my instinct, and if I am wrong, at least I will learn something. On this specific hand, Seikei could have called with anything as a “BB special” bc you raised so low. Typically with a mid pocket pair I like to raise more pre. That aside, his lead out screams like he has a 5 or 7 to me. If he had a 10, a set, or a straight I think he would check-raise. On the other hand, I'm not sure he'd lead out as a stone bluff with two players in the hand. To me, it seems like he has a weak pair, and just wants everyone to fold. When he checks the turn, it seems as if it is with the intention of check-calling so that confirms my read. However, since you bet so small on the turn him calling doesn't really give you any information. When he leads out on the river though, keep in mind that some villians will lead out when they have a big hand, and aren't sure that you are betting yourself. I have to be somewhat worried that he binked a 5 or backdoored a straight with an 8 in his hand. The pot odds are 2:1 so if you think he's bluffing 33% then its a good call. Granted, I would have played 99 differently from the get-go.
November 22, 2013
Phoebus said:
I should have bet bigger on turn. Idk about changing my raise size depending on my hand though, i'll get torn apart when I move up if I do that.
You shouldn't change your raise size based on specific hands, but that doesn't mean you should always bet the same amount. If anything you should be randomizing your raises, sometimes min-raising, sometimes 2.5BB, sometimes 3BB. That keeps your opponents guessing more than constantly raising the same amount imo. It also allows you to raise 3BB here, which I think would have been more optimal.
March 26, 2013
It looks to me like this guy is either really strong and has you crushed or ultra weak.
Main reasoning for this is that he almost certainly does not have a T or overpair in this spot. He can lead a T on that flop, then check back turn for pot control but after you bet he would check / call a T on river I think. An overpair I think he would probably bet three streets. He could have a set (played a bit weird granted) that he led, then check called turn fearing straight and then bet river when he hits gin card. He could also have a hand like A5 / K5 and got lucky but I'm not convinced villain leads a 5 on that flop. More likely to check / call in that situation. That leaves the unlikely 89 as you have 2 blockers to the 9. Other hands he might lead are draws such as J8, 86 etc. He has certainly played this oddly so you have every right to be suspicious and 2/1 odds are probably ok to take if you strongly feel this is a bluff a lot of the time with missed draws etc.
A couple of things:
1) Min-raise is ok in my opinion. Also think keeping the same sizing at the blind level does not give anything away to opponents as you are raising the same whether you have AA or 99 or T9s.
2) Your turn bet is pretty weak. I would have made it between 40-60% pot if checked to as opponent has excellent odds to call with a lot of hands / draws and you want to be charging villain in those spots to draw especially as your hand is vulnerable here as well.
Hopefully you successfully picked off his bluff but if not I'm guessing he had a set and played it badly from the turn onwards.
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