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When is "safe" to fold an overpair?
almofadinhas
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June 27, 2016 - 10:48 pm
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Hello!!

Today I was wondering how deep we have to be to fold an overpair to the board “safely”, by “safely” I mean not to run into monsters very often/make variance smaller. I have one hand that I played today for an example of what I am talking about, this is a 3bet pot pre flop, and reraised before hero:

Pacific, $10.90 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 3,000 (100 bb)
BB: 3,145 (104.8 bb)
UTG+2: 2,840 (94.7 bb)
MP1: 2,930 (97.7 bb)
MP2: 1,862 (62.1 bb)
MP3: 3,285 (109.5 bb)
Hero (CO): 2,925 (97.5 bb)
BTN: 2,804 (93.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Jclub Jdiamond
UTG+2 calls 30, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 108, MP3 folds, Hero calls 108, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls 78

Flop: (369) 3club 8heart 2club (3 players)
UTG+2 bets 369, MP2 raises to 1,754 and is all-in, Hero ??

rbbeagles13
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June 28, 2016 - 11:48 pm
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I would argue that this hand is just to vulnerable to be flatted pre when you’re this deep. You are fairly sure that the original limper will call (no, no read on him, but I have to say that anyone who seems to open limps will also often call a 3x raise OOP), and do you really wanted to go three ways to a pot with jacks at 90 bbs deep and an SPR of 10? I don’t. Anyway, I think a sizable 3bet pre is in order.

BUT, assuming you flat here, I just don’t think you can fold the flop. Without any decisive read, you have to think that QQ, KK, and AA are just as likely as 10 10 and 99 IMO. I even see this with 6’s and 7’s way too often, QJs, KQs. I know youre not in great shape against two over and a flush draw (hence why maybe you should 3bet pre), but you’re still a flip, and with the money already in the pot it becomes profitable.

I don’t know, I’d think I’d call here, and I’d weigh more towards calling the weaker I thought my opponents were. The weaker they are = the higher chance this push is worthless IMO.

almofadinhas
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June 29, 2016 - 12:19 am
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rbbeagles13 said
… and do you really wanted to go three ways to a pot with jacks at 90 bbs deep and an SPR of 10? I don’t. Anyway, I think a sizable 3bet pre is in order.

I dont think is actually ideal situation to be, but sometimes I fell like 3betting TT and JJ pre flop only isolates me against better hands, for worst that will set value, like if I 3bet this JJs, and V calls TTs (I assume rarely V will 4bet TT), V will look at TT more like a set mine hand, and will procede with caution after the flop. And when I get 4bet pre flop I don´t feel much confortable against that range. Obviously there is some sickos who will play 44 on 4bets, but I think this won´t happen too often.

When I call I fell like I leave worst hands on V´s range. Sometimes we have to give up on AKx kinda flop, other times we lose on 27T rainbow lol…

Playing and learning hehehe.

Foucault

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June 29, 2016 - 5:06 am
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OK but isn’t the value of “leaving worse hands in Villain’s range” that you can stack them on a flop like this?

JupiterRocks
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June 29, 2016 - 8:13 am
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I like this flop for us, even if it’s damp. V’s range put him smack in the middle of prime bluffing territory with any Ace or any two Broadway cards.  

The likelihood one of them has an over-pocket-pair is unlikely…..but still possible of coarse.

The only way we completely loose is if UTG+2 calls and wins

If we win after a shove and a call from UTG+2 we have a massive stack of 254.3BB

If we loose to the shove with out UTG+2 in we still have a healthy 35.4BB

If UTG+2 calls and we loose to both we have a measly 3.2BB left

If we call but loose to V’s shove but win UTG+2 we still have a large 65.2BB 

I’ve mucked hands like this before and I’ve shoved hands like this before, to me I like a re-shove trying to iso V but wouldn’t mind if UTG+2 joined the party.

Regards,

JP

almofadinhas
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June 29, 2016 - 8:52 am
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Foucault said
OK but isn’t the value of “leaving worse hands in Villain’s range” that you can stack them on a flop like this?

Yes, I did call here, but I was wondering because the action OTF.

JupiterRocks said

I’ve mucked hands like this before and I’ve shoved hands like this before, to me I like a re-shove trying to iso V but wouldn’t mind if UTG+2 joined the party.

I like the call better, may induce utg2 to GII with worst, if we shove he only calls with us beat I think

JupiterRocks
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June 29, 2016 - 12:18 pm
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UTG+2 trys to limp Pre. then calls small raise

Don’t believe he has a hand worth mentioning and will prob. fold due to MP2’s shove any way. If he doesn’t and we just call he may stay in with hands that have us beat (bottom two pair) or Draws (paired 8 with board, flush/straight draws). If we shove as well UTG+2 may fold these hands that have the potential to take our stack. Also if we call V would we not have already made the decision to call UTG+2 if he/she re-shoves, if not, I’d rather not be in the hand after V’s shove. 

Regards,

JP

rbbeagles13
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June 30, 2016 - 1:56 pm
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almofadinhas said

rbbeagles13 said
… and do you really wanted to go three ways to a pot with jacks at 90 bbs deep and an SPR of 10? I don’t. Anyway, I think a sizable 3bet pre is in order.

I dont think is actually ideal situation to be, but sometimes I fell like 3betting TT and JJ pre flop only isolates me against better hands, for worst that will set value, like if I 3bet this JJs, and V calls TTs (I assume rarely V will 4bet TT), V will look at TT more like a set mine hand, and will procede with caution after the flop. And when I get 4bet pre flop I don´t feel much confortable against that range. Obviously there is some sickos who will play 44 on 4bets, but I think this won´t happen too often.

When I call I fell like I leave worst hands on V´s range. Sometimes we have to give up on AKx kinda flop, other times we lose on 27T rainbow lol…

Playing and learning hehehe.

I’d have to disagree. Especially when your V shows up with a orse pair, a lot of players at the micro stakes have trouble folding 88 on a 9 high board, because the “default” I find they put a 3better on is AK. I think it’s a good spot, because you can stack on a flop like this, or even rep the AK if you have to turn your hand into a bluff. You create many different options and ways for you to win the hand, when it seems the only way for the V to do so is to hit the flop. Pretty good spot IMO.

almofadinhas
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June 30, 2016 - 9:07 pm
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rbbeagles13 said

 

I’d have to disagree. Especially when your V shows up with a orse pair, a lot of players at the micro stakes have trouble folding 88 on a 9 high board, because the “default” I find they put a 3better on is AK. I think it’s a good spot, because you can stack on a flop like this, or even rep the AK if you have to turn your hand into a bluff. You create many different options and ways for you to win the hand, when it seems the only way for the V to do so is to hit the flop. Pretty good spot IMO.

And what do you do when V 4bets you pre flop? Fold JJ with this stacks?

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