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When is it okay to play weak suited aces?
Wintastical
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October 22, 2016 - 12:26 am
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Hi guys, I’m not the most experienced or skilled player, which is why I’m here. I’m only recently starting to show profits in MTT’s, but my bankroll management makes me a losing player still. That’s not what this thread’s about, I just wanted to give a very brief description of myself lol.

 

A friend and I are having a friendly debate about when it’s okay to play weak suited aces in position (meaning what stack depth).

The specific example he gave is:

Hijack opens for 3x (antes in play) and has 30% VPIP/23% PFR. We’re on the BTN with A4s with a 13bb stack. We have no other reads on this player.

 

I think this is a clear fold with A4s, but with a read on the player it could possibly be a shove.

My friend believes that being in position he can profitably call and decide on flops.

 

EDIT: 100-200 players from the money still. No ICM considerations

 

So the question is, at what stack depth do you have correct implied odds to flat your A4s in position? If I had to guess I’d say the “line” is right around 25bb when the player’s opening 3x, but I’d like to hear professional opinions, both to settle this debate and so I know in the future when I’m playing

 

Sorry if this is a horribly structured/worded post, I tried.

 

Thank you ahead of time!

almofadinhas
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October 22, 2016 - 10:41 am
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I am not a pro yet, but here is my thoughts:

With 13bbs you should not be calling any range to play IP, 3x raise is over 25% of your stack, and if you are calling to hit you will lose on long run.

I guess to call a raise IP should be around 30bbs with weak aces, and even an Ace on the board will not make you win the pot.

I get some percentages here, not sure how reliable they are.

To hit a pair 32.4%
Two pairs 2%
Flush OTF 0.842%
Flush draw OTF 10.9%
Straight 1.31%
Set 1.35%
Full house 0.10%
Four of a kind 0,24%

With 13bbs you better off saving your equity for a steal all in, or reshove trying to double up.

rbbeagles13
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October 22, 2016 - 12:19 pm
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I second almo. With 13 BBs IMHO it’s a shove or fold spot, and that depends entirely on your read of the situation and your table image. I’d have to say in a vacuum with no other reads, a LP open from someone playing 30/23 and being many spots from the money would cause me to shove 13 BBs and A4s from the button, but it’s quite close I think and I also play relatively aggressive and I know I need to work on that.

I ran the numbers. Against a 23% opening range A4s has 46.37% equity. The V opens to 3 BBs, there are 2 BBs already in the pot from the blinds and antes, so you are shoving 13 to win 18. That means this is a profitable shove, even when called. Add in the amount you win without showdown, and I think you have your answer.

Wintastical
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October 22, 2016 - 1:48 pm
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Thanks for the replies guys. I agree that it can never be a call and is either shove/fold on a 13bb stack and the decision is player-specific, but we had like an hour long debate and were getting nowhere. A4s is in the top 21% of hands, so vs HJ’s 23% PFR we only beat 2/23 of his hands. We don’t have great implied odds since when we hit and call his 3-4bb c-bet he’s likely giving up on the 60+% of boards he misses, however the reverse implied odds work very much against us when we’re dominated and catch a piece.

 

 

Any other thoughts are greatly appreciated! We want to look at this from every angle

rbbeagles13
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October 22, 2016 - 5:22 pm
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It’s a simple math problem. You need 1.15-1 or better to justify the push, as pushing 13 to win 18 gives you 1.15-1 (18 divided by 13). Your equity is 46.37%, which is 1.38-1 (53.63 divided by 46.37). Therefore, it’s a profitable shove, especially because you don’t need that good odds to justify it as the V will fold sometimes, which is obviously great for you.

The line here is somewhere between KTo and QJo. QJo has 41.53% equity which is 1.4-1 and KTo has 43.99% which is 1.27-1. But the bottom line is with A4s, if you’re just going by the math, it’s a clear shove. Whoever was advocating the shove is right in this argument. Obviously there are other factors in play here, but if you play off math which will help you make profitable decisions, you shove.

I recommend downloading Equilab. A quick google search will send you to the download link. You can play around with all sorts of hands against all sorts of ranges. Very useful tool.

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