Foucault said:

These aren't situations that you should be solving by feel. “I feel like I can wait for a better spot, I didn't feel like I was ahead,” etc. These things are quantifiable, and the only way to improve your intuition and decision-making at the table is to try to quantify them.

You need about 40% equity for a cEV-neutral call. Even against the tightest range anyone has suggested for this player, which is JJ+,AK, QQ has 48% equity. That's not a “flip”, it's a huge edge. Folding here is passing up about 19K in equity or more than 6BB.

Regardless of what you may think, you do not have a future edge that is worth that much, especially considering that that's a worst case scenario estimate. Sure, you might pick up AA and get a clear and very profitable call against a short stack, but you also might pick up KK and run it into AA. Or you might go card/spot-dead and blind down for several orbits without ever getting a playable hand. You can't just assume that everything will go swimmingly for you and you'll accumulate chips forever without taking any risks, even if that's how it's been going for the last hour.

It's correct to be SLIGHTLY risk averse in MTTs, especially near the bubble or other spots where cEV and $EV diverge sharply. But pretty much every post I see about it on these forums drastically overestimates the effect, to the point where I think most of you would be better off just not thinking about it at all. Basically, whatever value you occasionally gain by correctly folding away small edges is getting swamped by spots like this one where you give away boat loads of equity in big pots.

If you just stopped worrying so much about busting and tried to make the right decisions, you'd be so much better off. No matter what you do, you are going to lose most tournaments you enter. Almost all of them. In most, you won't even cash. Putting yourself in a position to win on the rare occasion that the stars align for you is just much more important than trying to minimize your risk of elimination at all times.

Thanks for this post Foucault.  It's definitely helpful especially for those just starting to play bigger live MTTs with huge prizes. I know for me, it took me a little bit to ignore the bubble money.  For those who play online, it is easier to not care about bubbles when buyin is $11-$55 or even $100 and bubble means $22-$200.   Variance is huge in these tournaments and focusing on the present and playing our best in any given situation should be the number one focus.  With a little luck (or just avoiding being unlucky), most people who continue to improve their game have a good chance to do well in an MTT.

As for this hand, I don't see myself folding QQ here.  I do think AA, KK, are in his range, but I think AK, AQ and even AJ are in his shove range here given your image and that's why it is beneficial to have the image you've created.  You are frustrating your opponents and pushing them to pick a spot like this one where you have the monster and most likely have them dominated.  I could see him making this move against you with 44-JJ as well.  He doens't want to play out a pot and there is enough chips in the middle for him to be happy taking it down without ever seeing a flop and thinks you are 3-betting light in your position (coupled with your image).  I think the chance at a much bigger stack can position you to make a DEEP run.  If you win this pot, you can raise more around the bubble and pick on mid stacks who are just trying to make the money and have enough chips to lose a critical flip or two.  That to me is more valuable and gives me a better chance at top 3 money.