Alright guys it's my first hand at this table. This guy insta 4 bet jams. The sheer speed of his jam made me really feel like he has kk-aa or Ak and just assumes i'm calling. I guess his real range though is JJ-AA AQs, AKo, AKs. I'm getting a decent price, but it sure feels like a bad spot.
Two Questions)
1) What's your play
2) Does he ever show 77-99 here? If so I should definately call.
Poker Stars $50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t200/t400 Blinds + t50 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
ganzonero (UTG+2): BB = 43.5, t17410
Hero (MP1): BB = 33.6, t13435
salehrol (MP2): BB = 31.4, t12552
zas2kar (CO): BB = 33.6, t13427
Schrazor (BTN): BB = 16.4, t6551
smsuwrestler (SB): BB = 12.2, t4876
Ghalys (BB): BB = 28.4, t11355
kingsofcards (UTG): BB = 34.5, t13819
nino7777 (UTG+1): BB = 28.6, t11429
Pre Flop: (t1050) Hero is MP1 with T T
kingsofcards raises to t800, 2 folds, Hero raises to t2400, 2 folds, Schrazor raises to t6501 all in, 3 folds, Hero????
1) First hand @ the table, I muck the TT.. You still have a stack to play with and he's not just jamming your 3bet, he's also jamming the UTG raiser and the other big stack in the CO still to act.
2) Does he show up with 77-99??? I don't play these buyin levels, so I can't say. But he does look strong with his jam. Range is pretty narrow imo.
Tks for feedback Southpaw!
Since you mentioned the utg raiser. I should probably point out that he is a very laggy strong player (I think he won the live cardplayer player of the year last year). His range is pretty wide even though he is opening utg (don't know if villain knows this though).
If I did my math correctly you need 4101 more to win a pot 14852. Which means you need around 28% equity in your hand to make the call break even. Against the range you specified you actually have 35.5% equity making it a mandatory call. Even if you take AQs out of his range you still have 33.6% equity, so you have to take AKo out of his range in order that this call be -Ev, which seems rediculous since AKo is a blatant shove for him with 16bb in his spot.
Almost a fist pump call given the odds you have even though you will lose the hand 2 out of 3 times (and thats if he’s as tight as you think he is).
It's 4101 to win 10,751 so I'm getting like 2.6ish to call.
Mathamatically (and my math might be off here) it's a slight fold as I have 35%ish to win and 2.6 + 1 x 100 =36ish.
I'll spoiler alert and say I folded the hand because it's a break even call and I'd rather keep the 25bbs. But if my range is off my equity to win might be a whole lot higher than 35%.
savant111 said:
I'm 99.999% sure it's 10K:4K but someone will chime in eventually. What do you think the villains range is here.
I'm also pretty sure savant is correct unless I've been missing something this whole time, lol. You're wagering the 4K to win an additional 10K, you don't count the money that you haven't put into the pot yet in the amount you could win if you call…
There is actually a mixing of concepts here. You are getting 2.6 – 1 but that doesn't convert to % the way you are doing it. If you are going to compare your equity to your pot odds you have to consider the entire pot. If you are putting in 4101 of a situation that is worth 14852 total. Your call is costing you 27% of the total attainable pot.
fwiw, the general rule is that > 2 – 1 is a call in most cases.
I didn't do the pokerstove but assuming your hand has 35.5% equity is correct, this is a call. While you are crushed sometimes, the presence of AK makes a huge difference. There are 16 combos of AK while only 6 combos of each bigger pair. If JJ, QQ, KK are possible, in total there are only 24 total combos.
Your raise kinda commited you against the short stacks in the blinds. Some shortstacks will also shove lighter here. When you factor in some AQ and maybe even some 99s it will make it profitable because tbh his total stack isn't that big. I'd just go with it and call it a cooler if they have a bigger pair.
RonFezBuddy said:
There is actually a mixing of concepts here. You are getting 2.6 – 1 but that doesn't convert to % the way you are doing it. If you are going to compare your equity to your pot odds you have to consider the entire pot. If you are putting in 4101 of a situation that is worth 14852 total. Your call is costing you 27% of the total attainable pot.
fwiw, the general rule is that > 2 – 1 is a call in most cases.
I didn't do the pokerstove but assuming your hand has 35.5% equity is correct, this is a call. While you are crushed sometimes, the presence of AK makes a huge difference. There are 16 combos of AK while only 6 combos of each bigger pair. If JJ, QQ, KK are possible, in total there are only 24 total combos.
Your raise kinda commited you against the short stacks in the blinds. Some shortstacks will also shove lighter here. When you factor in some AQ and maybe even some 99s it will make it profitable because tbh his total stack isn't that big. I'd just go with it and call it a cooler if they have a bigger pair.
thanks for clearing that up Diego, i was about to go put some serious work into my push/fold game…
Im pretty sure this is the reason i decided stick to percentages rather than odds when i first started poker since converting odds to equity confuses me
G0liath: NH
Ronfez: Thanks for clarification. Ron do you have any suggestion about weighing the possibility of 77-99 in villains range? I weighed AQ by only putting in suited cards in poker stove. So only 4 of the 16 aqs went into that 35.5% (I probably should of put in 8) Does putting in one 77 combo two 88's and 3 99 combos sound right?
Ronfez/Cougars: 16 Ak combos is a great point and i think thats the piece of information I was missing.
flg: In this spot i really doubt the insta 4bet w that light. Maybe 77-99 was possible. Also i think jamming 33bbs is pretty bad. Raise folding like i did felt pretty gross too though .
Thanks for the feedback and clarification
savant111 said:
Ronfez: Thanks for clarification. Ron do you have any suggestion about weighing the possibility of 77-99 in villains range? I weighed AQ by only putting in suited cards in poker stove. So only 4 of the 16 aqs went into that 35.5% (I probably should of put in 8) Does putting in one 77 combo two 88's and 3 99 combos sound right?
This is exactly how to weight hands. I like the distribution you chose.
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