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Whats the play here?
Budr8cin
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October 23, 2010 - 1:35 am
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I just feel I am beat when he leads right?  Is my flat pre ok here?

 

Poker Stars $3.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60/t120 Blinds + t15 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Racer3312000 (MP2): BB = 80.1, t9610
dontriverme9 (CO): BB = 192.4, t23089
VibizSbrissa (BTN): BB = 80.8, t9692
Francis1606 (SB): BB = 126.6, t15197
Jamcoelect (BB): BB = 62.8, t7541
BigSchwag (UTG): BB = 88.8, t10650
hghbnkr1 (UTG+1): BB = 105.7, t12681
jaansson90 (UTG+2): BB = 99.8, t11975
Hero (MP1): BB = 104.5, t12535

Pre Flop: (t315) Hero is MP1 with 9 of spades 9 of hearts
3 folds, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, dontriverme9 calls t300, VibizSbrissa calls t300, Francis1606 raises to t2160, 1 fold, Hero calls t1860, dontriverme9 calls t1860, 1 fold

Flop: (t7035) 2 of hearts 5 of diamonds 8 of diamonds (3 players)
Francis1606 bets t4920, Hero??

Oddzelot
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October 23, 2010 - 3:07 am
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Any Hud stats on the guy? Or reads

Without that.

I think the pre flat in terms of set mining is ok.

Normally at these levels you at strong 3bet from the blinds is very strong. I dont think

you can call profitable here even then you catched a good flop. 

You run way to often against 1010+ or sometimes AQdd+.

Cougars4444
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October 23, 2010 - 10:53 am
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Don't mind the flat pre cause you have to expect at least one if not both opponents are going to come along….on flop I fold though we are crushed way to often here when we dont flop our set.

bennymacca
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October 24, 2010 - 6:26 pm
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im not sure i understand your post cougars.

 

if we are only playing for set mining here, dont we want to flat and hope that pretty much everyone else calls as well, for implied odds sake?

 

i agree that we are crushed on this flop most of the time, but i would have thought that we would want to play multiway if we are only playing for set value.

 

am i missing something?

airedale05
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October 24, 2010 - 8:35 pm
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think he's implying that u have better set mine odds because ur likely to pick up the others as flatters.  You should have a read on the other players to know they won't ship in this spot, if they're flop whores than it's a not a bad spot to try a set mine.  But on this flop i'll usually dump this hand because when I am set mining i'm usually assuming i'm behind at the time.

ttwist

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October 24, 2010 - 10:50 pm
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dont hate the flat pre because your just so deep and the tuf part is its the flop your looking for with 99 but with all the aggression being showed and the fact that villain bet size commits him if you shove and his reraise pre it looks like QQ or kk but could be JJ and if he has Akdd you about a 59-41 dog so fold here is fine you still have very capable stack.

bennymacca
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October 24, 2010 - 11:11 pm
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man, i gotta start reading posts properly. i read it as “dont flat pre” rather than “dont mind the flat pre”

Cougars4444
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October 25, 2010 - 11:01 am
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sorry benny….airedale was right I was implying that the others are probably going to flat and see a flop so therefore we have better implied odds.  If there were no other flatters of his 300 open I'd be much more inclined to fold or jam to his 7x 3b all based on opponent.

FkCoolers
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October 25, 2010 - 11:53 am
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This line looks completely fine to me. Absolutely call to set mine and folding to the lead is normal.

The big 3 bet from the SB looks pretty strong to me. I highly doubt this is AK or AQ leading into you guys unless he's got the nut flush draw.

Hagbard Celine
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October 25, 2010 - 11:56 am
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id fold PF. the 3bet is jsut too big imo.

FkCoolers
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October 25, 2010 - 12:00 pm
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Hagbard Celine said:

id fold PF. the 3bet is jsut too big imo.


I was thinking that initially and ended up changing my mind when I saw we'd still have 90+ bb's if we miss a set and fold to a c-bet.

Do you still fold if you are very confident you'll see at least 1 person call behind you if not both people call behind you?

Last question – if you fold to this 3 bet size where you do draw the line in terms of what you'd call?

Hagbard Celine
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October 25, 2010 - 1:40 pm
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that's just a big if considering his raise size. it looks like he hit the pot button, meaning we're getting ~2:1 to call off 1/6 of our stack when we only hit a set ~1/8 of the time. just seems really thin to me if profitable at all.

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