p1kZoR said:

If i shove, he would not call with worse hands. Definetely he would fold down AK/AQ. The only hand he gonna pay me out is maybe AJ. QQ/KK he would def fold vs a rivershove, which looks very strong to me. And I dont think he would make some crazy herocalling on river, if I shove (since ive told he is a big winning player.. he knows, what he does)

 

So the question is, is it worth to shove river, if we only get called by better hands and worse hands gonna be folded anyway..? 

 

You are obviously trying to convince everyone that shoving is bad(probably because you did and he had you beat), he probably showed up with JJ/AA, and you are simply seeing ghosts.  He 100% will call with worse hands.  How often? I dont know.

Let me try to break down my thought process for the hand:

Pre flop is marginal but ok if you are comfortable post. We dont have enough effective odds to be set mining, but we also dont need to hita set to win this pot.  He is Sb so we can prob give him more respect than someone 3 betting us IP, so 4 betting isnt good, so eitehr call or fold depnding on your comfortability post flop and reads on player.  I would probably fold if I was in your spot and didnt want to play a huge winner in a 3 bet pot.

Flop is standard check back.

Turn is interesting.  I think we can raise here, and here are my reasons:

1. His line is realtively weak, so our riase can look steal-y.

2.  This is probably most important at this level.  We dont expect him to barrel river as bluff.

 Our theoretical line of checking flop and claling turn, on a board like this with not many draws, is going to signal to him we are probably claling river a great % of the time so bluffing wont happen./  So now it becomes a game of getting the most value out of him and I think raising does that on the turn.  We dont rep much outside of sets and A8, maybe Aj/A4 occasionally, and with his flop check it is feasible we are trying to get him off thnking he doesnt have an ace(which is probably a vast majority of his range).

River, as played, we should be shoving.  Monesters under the bed though processes are not going to get us anywhere. WE have a set on a dry board in a 3 bet pot with under 50 effective BBs, the number of spots I have seen where we are not getting it in if possible in these spots I can probably count on 1 hand.