JDOG1645 said:

Wein said:

In general, I am very cautious with paired boards when drawing to a straight and usually just flat the turn here and evaluate what happens on the river so I'm not bloating a pot when I could easily be drawing dead.

 

As for your line, I'm not sure I have a problem with much of it except the turn.  Unless you think you can get him to laydown a strong king or two aces, your check-raise is essentially just bloating the pot when you could be drawing dead.

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I agree with Wein here. I also never believe the guy who has been calling now raises on a paired board. Most people wil try and extract the value on the river. I would have called the turn bet and called the river bet because more times than not he would fire again.  I dont see any value in raising the river because your never getting called by worse.

We lead the river and get raised by the villain. Can't see anything we beat except AK and JQ but doubt JQ just flats the Turn.

Leftymike said:

i truly thought he had Kx, i thought my raise would have gotten him off of that, and disguised my draw if he calls and i do hit.  As played when he checks the river, should i be betting here after he calls the turn.  I genuinely felt once he checked the river i had the best hand.  He had AQ.

KJ should be the only Kx hand in his range that loses to you on this river. No one should be raising worse kings from his position so that gives pause for thought.

I'm more worried that he has KQ on the turn and is baiting the hook.

I know it feels weak to check back when we finally hit our hand but honestly I think these are the only hands that call us which we beat:

QJ, AK.

He maybe could have donked twice with a heart draw or the same hand as us …

But I think those hands push or fold the turn so I'm ruling them out.

Having stats on him is a definite plus here. Against a total fish I bet. Against an unknown or someone I know to be competent I probably check back the river.

Yeah. It's so hard to check back against a random. You have to really know the person is a good, tricky player to be very concerned here. And you don't see many of those in a $5 MTT.

Once he jams all-in I can't think of a single hand I beat. He could have had AA, been unable to find the fold button along the way, and then got there at the end.

Or like I said before KQ seems so likely here when he flats the Turn to not scare anyone off. I feel like JQ jams. KK is a possibility, too.

I guess what it comes down to is how many times you actually get called and win the hand.

All flush draws fold. King-crap probably folds if that's what you put him on. Ace crap should never show up.

That leaves JT and hands that beat you.