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January 15, 2014
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Hey TPE
I dont bluff a lot on the river, but i have been working on it. I tried this move the other night and would like anybody's opinion on it. I had recently moved to this table, so i didnt have an image set up but equally had no read on the villain.
My thought process was that he thinks i am just attempting to steal his BB, so when he donk leads the flop he is doing that with any piece of the board to try and take the pot down. When he leads turn i still think he has one pair, maybe a J, but his sizing is pretty small so i dont think he is strong. I think by calling i can rep an over pair here.
When he leads river i think i have just about enough left in my stack to create some fold equity and it looks super strong, given he has 3 barrelled. I also think his sizing looks weak, like he just wants to get a cheap show down.
I called the flop with the intention of bluffing either turn or river, but when he bets turn i think calling looks way stronger and depending on how he acts on the river i can shove over the top if i think i have enough fold equity.
My other thought was that with his stack size i could see him risking some chips with leads on the flop and turn with a marginal hand.
This is probably the most progress i have ever shown in my thinking ahead to further streets, so was proud of myself for that. Just want to know if i picked a good spot.
Apologies that the hand history converter was not working for me…
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 591060801 *****
$800/$1,600 Blinds No Limit Holdem – *** 17 06 2014 22:10:13
Tournament #59159944 $2.70 + $0.30 – Table #11 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: LeggySusie ( $7,220 )
Seat 2: Boylene5 ( $81,760 )
Seat 4: manxmann78 ( $29,975 )
Seat 6: Hope777777 ( $80,912 )
Seat 9: B165L1CK75 ( $34,259 )
Seat 10: hungryharry ( $55,785 )
manxmann78 posts ante [$160]
LeggySusie posts ante [$160]
B165L1CK75 posts ante [$160]
Boylene5 posts ante [$160]
hungryharry posts ante [$160]
Hope777777 posts ante [$160]
Hope777777 posts big blind [$1,600]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to manxmann78 [ 8h, Ad ]
B165L1CK75 folds
hungryharry folds
LeggySusie folds
Boylene5 folds
manxmann78 raises [$3,200]
Hope777777 calls [$1,600]
** Dealing flop ** [ 3c, 5h, Jd ]
Hope777777 bets [$3,200]
manxmann78 calls [$3,200]
** Dealing turn ** [ 7d ]
Hope777777 bets [$3,200]
manxmann78 calls [$3,200]
** Dealing river ** [ 7h ]
Hope777777 bets [$8,000]
manxmann78 raises [$20,215] all in
January 15, 2014
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Anyone want to comment? Anyone at all?
October 21, 2013
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Your assumptions about his donkleading range are accurate imo; is it a good spot ? well at this levels of bi I thinks this move will work quite often, because you wont be playing vs good thinking players often but bear in mind that with this line you are not rapping that much at all (33 55 JJ) so i wouldnt do it vs a decent-good reg…
Im not sure how Andrew would play it but i would call flop, raise turn (i m not too good at reading this HH i prefer a replayer but i guess i would raise to something like 7888 so you have a lil less than a psb on the river) and shove river if he calls turn… if he shoves over your turn raise you should be super happy to fold thinking that you saved some money since he “didnt let you” bluff on the river…
April 14, 2014
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I dont know how hope has been playing but I think he would only fold a stone cold bluff. Its a $3 buy in and he has already put about 15000 chips in the pot. An all in shove is less than 1/3 of the pot so with any show down value he would probably call. I think you would have had to make a move sooner with your chip stack. I like the line a lot better if you are sitting deeper but with that stack you should be a little nittier imo. I am just a fish though so dont take my advice.
April 30, 2014
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Fold/shove pre. And lean heavily towards folding. You have 18 BB, and are getting involved with the table big stack who has chips to flat wide.
Fold the flop. Look to value bet at this buyin level… not run multi street bluffs. Villains won't fold enough for them to work.
As played(meaning you are not willing to give up on the hand), raise shove the flop, its the only spot in the hand where you really have any fold equity left… expect to get called by a J a lot. His donk lead is asking if you have his hand beat as a stop and go…. you need to answer right then and there.
At this level, the guy is never folding once he leads the turn after you flat the flop, and he is likely not sophisticated enough to consider that your flat on the flop (supposedly) represents strength.
March 26, 2013
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Preflop: I am never folding. If blinds are aggressive 3b villains I am happy to raise/call, if they like to flat a ton then I probably shove. My default here is to shove preflop as my hand rates to be the best, might get called by worse in the blinds and does not generally play too well postflop.
Flop: I think this becomes your decision point. It is likely the villain does have a weak pair including J/mid-kicker type hands as there are no reasonable draws and most players would 3b shove pairs against your stack size. The lack of draws out there makes me think a J is most likely so I would probably fold but if you think he is screwing around then floating the flop or even raising to take the pot away are reasonable options.
Turn: Once he double barrels I think you either have to shove or fold. I'd err on the side of folding personally as the board did not change and I do not think you can reasonably rep anything.
River: I cannot see what hands he triple barrels that will fold. I don't think you have much chance of getting villain off a J or some kind of pair once he has committed so many chips so I would fold.
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