You should generally be reraising preflop, but as played I’d bet now. It’s basically impossible for UTG to bet into two people on this turn, so it’s going to check through really often.

I don't think this is a hugely profitable 3-bet, but I do think it's a good one. I'd be less inclined to 3-bet if you were heads up with the original raiser, but forcing the SB out of the pot or getting him to put more money in from behind are both good outcomes. More importantly, I think that your (2) and (4) points contradict each other. You say it's hard to make him fold but also that your 3-bet will look too strong. You would 3-bet AA and KK here, right? Are they the only hands you would 3-bet? If so, you are making it pretty easy for your opponent to play hands like TT or JJ correctly either by folding immediately or by set-mining. Putting AK into your 3-betting range, basically as a bluff or semi-bluff, will help to counteract or capitalize on that overly tight image.

Regarding the size of the bet, have you seen my value betting series? That should help you to think through the problem.

Right now, when you 3-bet, your opponent can correctly put on you on AA – QQ and play accordingly. That is a much tougher situation to be in and more likely to result in tough spots for you. You are focusing on specific situations that can get tough to play with one exact hand. You need to think in terms of playing a RANGE in a given situation, not just one hand. Yes, it's hard to win with AK if your c-bet is called when you whiff the flop. However, those same boards are great for QQ – AA. Likewise, when an A flops, that's a bad flop for your QQ and KK and a good one for your AK/AA. When your opponent doesn't know which of these hands he has, it's much harder for him to bluff you and also to make big folds to you. When he knows (or correctly guesses) that you always have QQ – AA, he can get away from JJ on a Txx flop and can bluff you when an Ace flops.

MovesLikeDarvin said:

i have been having very good success with it against euro villains online, and some live villains who fit the “euro” profile.

 

Ex: A9cc in the sb, multi way limped pot at $10/20.

Flop QT4ccc, i do not lead, it checks around

Turn 8c: i lead $50, hyper-aggro fish calls

River 3c: i opt to lead $50, he raises to $200, i click to $400, he bombs all in.

 

I think these small pseudo-blocker bets leave villains in a “raise or fold” situation, and often will want to raise rather than fold to such a small bet. give it a shot in the future if you're unsure in a similar spot OOP vs aggro villain where you're nutted.

Someone owned me with a line like this at the main event last year 🙁

jacobsharktank said:

MovesLikeDarvin said:

From a pot odds perspective, you have to be willing to believe that Villain bluff-raises the river about 40% of the time, as you are risking 14k to win 31.5k, getting almost exactly 2.25:1.  Given his sizing, and the fact that Villain raised over a SB lead + your call from the BB, this appears a tough sell.  This is a perfectly plausible line for a flopped set to take on this run out, so unless you have the villain pegged as a much stronger player, we'd suggest this is a losing call here.

On the river, the pot is 13,500.

SB bets 6000. Hero calls 6000. Villain raises to 20000.

 

So the pot is 45,500 and we need to call 14000, getting 3.25:1 needing villain to bluff like 23.5% of the time?

I'm actually a little confused here, myself. If we don't include our 6000, we're seeing 39500 and need to call 16000, getting 2.82:1 and needing villain to bluff like 26.2% of the time?

3.25:1 is correct here, Jacob, good catch.