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What is villians likely hand here, could I have played 88 better
Phoebus
Grinding Micros
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December 7, 2013 - 11:54 am
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Poker Stars $5.00+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t350/t700 Blinds + t85 – 9 players – View hand 2374921
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

xapy12 (UTG+2): BB = 68.4, t47882
Hero (MP1): BB = 45.8, t32038
marko1948 (MP2): BB = 17.7, t12415
aelpop (CO): BB = 49.1, t34342
taekui (BTN): BB = 31.0, t21667
c-breezy83 (SB): BB = 15.9, t11125
I_I_I77 (BB): BB = 20.8, t14540
OMGuRnothing (UTG): BB = 37.4, t26197
Grofesz (UTG+1): BB = 67.4, t47211

Pre Flop: (t1815) Hero is MP1 with 8 of hearts 8 of spades
2 folds, xapy12 raises to t3215, Hero raises to t5999, 5 folds, xapy12 calls t2784

Flop: (t13813) 6 of hearts 7 of spades J of diamonds (2 players)
xapy12 checks, Hero bets t7000, xapy12 calls t7000

Turn: (t27813) A of hearts (2 players)
xapy12 checks, Hero checks

River: (t27813) A of spades (2 players)
xapy12 bets t28000, Hero folds

mikewebb68
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December 7, 2013 - 4:54 pm
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Hard to range villian without knowing more about him/her. Has he/she been spewy as the table cl? Or nitty? Flatting a lot? Flatting a lot of 3 bets? It is the read that determines what you do after the 3 bet here, and even if you 3 bet at all, imo. 

 

Readless, think you can play this better by two-barrelling turn. To me, ace is an ideal card to two barrel,, and if he has a set or somehow floated an ace, I think you hear from him. And checking the turn just gives him an absolute license to steal on the river, and worse, pegs you as a fit or fold person he (or another person at the table paying attention) can exploit if you have done this with other hands. 

 

As played, that pot sized river bet could most certainly be a bluff given what I previously stated as well as the fact that his A-X combos most certainly decrease

Phoebus
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December 7, 2013 - 5:28 pm
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Hmm, I have been playing without a HUD lately, I read somewhere that it's good to switch back and forth between using one and not.

 

I was at the table for a bit and this is the first hand he is involved with, looking back at it now I think I should be 3 betting a little bit bigger like 6600 or so. That's my first mistake. Also by 3 betting it sets it up to take it down if we whif flop and just want the pot.

 

Given that his image is tighter is why I checked turn here, I was think oh he has an ace here all the time. But when the river comes an Ace that obviously takes a lot of Ax combos out of his range.

 

I guess I could also be flatting here but MP+2 and BB have good squeeze stacks, and it sucks to throw in the chips to set mine and have to fold.

 

So I like 3 bet double barrel best.

Flat set mine second best.

Fold least best

icantmtt
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December 7, 2013 - 6:16 pm
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Given the preflop and flop action I think villain always has hand with some showdown value 55+, AJ,QJ, AK
The board is dry so drawing/air hands are unlikely here
Given the turn and river action I think it’s very likely he has monster. Top set or full house
The only hands you are beating are 22-55 and air. Both unlikely given huge river bet

As played I 3 bet a little more 6999 and c bet a little less 5000
Good fold obv

Poking_Fun
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December 9, 2013 - 8:33 am
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Preflop his raise makes things a bit awkward for you as your 3b really needs to be a bit bigger to say 7200 or so to be effective and then you are starting to get into pot commitment territory. If this is villain's standard raise sizing then he is priced in to call with virtually any cards he has raised with and you are left with a vulnerable hand although having position is good. It is a spot where I might consider a fold here as we have to put in a lot of money preflop and someone can still wake up with a hand behind us and make us fold anyway. I definitely do not call here.

As played, if this is the villain's standard raise size then he probably has pot odds to call with his whole range where you have made it so cheap so I would assume he could have 77-JJ, AT-AQ, KJ-KQ, QJ, JT etc which means the flop is probably quite good for you in many cases. I would expect premium hands to 4b here but you cannot 100% discount them. I would bet the flop 100% but would size it smaller to say 4500-5000. This will get the job done if villain has nothing.

The turn gives us an opportunity to double barrel and represent the A. I do not think he would play an A in this spot on the flop unless it was AJ or AA specifically so I would go ahead and bet again. If you get raised then you can assume he has you beat for sure.

The river is a fold as you are not beating much at all but your line in the hand has given villain an opportunity to bluff you off although I would not expect too many villains to risk a pot size bet to achieve it.

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