Wow…when I ran the numbers those are pretty much the exact same ranges that I came up with both for the shorty shove and the three players behind.  Without completly going into the math I would guess that if I was closing the action by calling the shove I would need about 43% equity vs the short stacks shove to make a profitible call witht all of the dead money in the pot.  So if this was cut and dry hu I could call here easily.

The problem lies with the three players behind.  I am pretty sure that (1- .054) x (1- .054) x 1(- .054) is the correct way to figure out the percentage of time that you will get called overall by one of the three.  This comes out to roughly 15.5%.  And when I am called here I am obv crushed.  Poker stove is still doing its thing against these two ranges but it looks like I will be about 19% three way if called.

Roughly running the math it looks like when no one calls behind my stack ev for the play will be about 40k.

And when some one does call my stack ev willl be about 18k.

(40k x .85 = 34k) + (18k x .15 = 2.7k) = 36.7k

This is below my starting stack of 37.5k so it looks like my call is negative ev.

It looks like I was maybe one pip off and the bottom of my range should have been something like A9o, A7x and 44+ here (I would think 66 initially but the smaller pairs have much more equity than A8o if the pot happens to go 3-way)

That being said I had really been blinding down in this and my new focus has been to always remain relevant in the tournament and to go out swinining not looking so I don’t mind the very slightly negative ev gamble here to get to a stack where I have many more options to play.

plessis204 said:

the only thing I have to add is that it’s pretty important to take in to account how UTG+1 got so short.  If he’s just nitted down to that stack then it’s a pretty turboed fold with the A8, whereas if he just lost a flip or whatever then there’s the tilt factor that widens his range for shoving all 6 of them bb’s in.

This is a very good point and something a friend of mine also brought to my attention.  This tournament had a brutally long bubble with about 10 stacks on the dead money bubble between 8-12bb.  The bigger stacks were exploiting this and he really didn’t seems to have many spots at all.  I did see him shove when folded to him in a couple of spots where I was thinking he should shove very wide before the hand so I deemed this player as competant and put him on a standard thinking players range.

Very good point though….obv if he is nitting it up and has no idea of push/fold ranges I need to fold this in a heartbeat.