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this is a 4.5 gtd freezeout. villian had been active and we're 3 handed. chose not to c-bet because he had been floating, plus i had a draw.
turn gave me nut flush draw and was gonna bet it when he led. my thought was i could stack him if i hit and i still may not be behind with an ace.
wasn't a huge hit to my stack and still had 32 bb behind.
seems like a good spot to me. i ask because guy was rialing on me pretty hard afterwards and it got me thinking. still think it was right play.
was curious what you folks thought.
Merge No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500.00/t5000.00 Blinds – 3 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
JimmyWingTips (BB): t156415.00 31.28 BBs
Hero (BTN): t208082.00 41.62 BBs
Sheggy3746 (SB): t193003.00 38.60 BBs
Pre Flop: (t7500) Hero is BTN with A
4
Hero raises to t10000, 1 fold, JimmyWingTips calls t5000
Flop: (t22500) 2 5
9
(2 players)
JimmyWingTips checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t22500) 6 (2 players)
JimmyWingTips bets t24000.00, Hero calls t24000
not calling the turn would be a mistake. i mean, even if you don't turn the FD i think you should be calling the turn with A-high and a gutshot after having checked back the flop.
yeah call the turn
he could easily be stabbing at the pot b/c we checked behind on the flop
were you thinking about raising the turn?
hapetimes, no, just unsure if call was good, didn't want to raise and have to fold to a shove. had too many outs
July 3, 2010
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We think the call is good even though he overbets the pot and there is a good chance he check/folds if the flush actually gets there?
Not so sure about this one …
wow i didnt even look at his turn sizing. now i'm not so sure. i guess just fold.
Yeah basically a pot bet on turn. You have gutter and nut flush draw, hmm.
I think a call is OK due to your stack size, but don't think I could do it.
If you hit, your a genius, if not your spewing. Wonder if it would have been better to c-bet the flop??
What do you think Hagbard??
Am i reading this incorrectly? The hero has ~ 12 outs, maybe 15 if we consider Aces to be winners, so is at about 25-30% to hit. The villain's overbet on the turn means that the hero will need to bet half the pot… Doesn't the pot odds indicate that this is a -EV spot and the hero should fold? Despite the villian being active all he needs is A5+, any 2,5,9 or 6 to have you beat… which given his passive line of play up until the turn can all be in his range.
Wouldn't this be a case of folding and waiting for a better spot, or is there some justification for gambling here?
October 6, 2010
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yeah turn bet is just WTF, and makes it a fold imo. if it was a standard half to 2/3 bet on the turn though, i prolly call and bet if it gets checked to me on the river.
hey guys, thanks for responses, why i posted it because i was unsure if it was right play or not. looks like it was a spewy spot.
i put him on some kind of 9 and missed a c/r a c-bet on flop when i checked back. was thinking i had 12 nut outs, (flush,straight) and 3 outs with ace that i probably would be good with.
my thinking was is that if i bink i could get value or possible stack if he flops big with a set or something.
seemed to me that i was still deep enough to make the call and whiff and still be in good shape.
FkCoolers said:
We think the call is good even though he overbets the pot and there is a good chance he check/folds if the flush actually gets there?
Not so sure about this one …
to be honest, it never occurred to me that he would check/fold if flush got there. i assumed he would check/call value bet with a 9 that i put him on.
hmmmm…..think i'm gonna re-evaluate my whole thought process. don't seem to be looking at all the scenarios.
gives me something to do while i work tonight 
June 11, 2010
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I'll chip in my two cents here for fun 🙂 I think the check behind on the flop was a great move, based on the bet size on teh turn my guess is he was going to be check/raising you on the flop. I would imagine that he hit pretty hard and given the board, it has to be a set or air (i'd lean set). The pot bet on the turn reads like he's scared and wants to end the hand right now with a flush draw appearing out there. I am not sure I would have pulled the trigger on the turn. I think you reasoned correctly that calling or folding were your only real options here. I don't have my pokerstove so I'm not sure what your equity was here, but my guess is marginal. I don't think you are getting value from a flush on the river if it hits as he is clearly scared of it, the straight may get paid off as it is a little sneakier, but still may not. For what it's worth I think I fold the turn.
I agree w the consensus that mathematically it is a clear fold. Using the calculator at twodimes.net, I got the following EV values for your hand: against 99 ev = .16, against A9 ev =.2, against JJ ev = .31. I dont think he has air very often. Having said that, if he was the kind of player that you thought could never fold if you hit, or that he would go mega tilt if you hit, or if he had been very bluffy it might warrant a call, given your stack. Mostly a fold, though. Thanks for the interesting spot.
Yeah, with the sizing on the turn, I say “wtf” and fold. I think I c bet the flop 1/2 pot and see how he responds. By doing this he may muck, if he c/c you can fire on a lot of turns or get the free card, and if he c/r you can safely fold and not be in the spot on the turn. Best of luck.
terbet11 said:
Yeah, with the sizing on the turn, I say “wtf” and fold. I think I c bet the flop 1/2 pot and see how he responds. By doing this he may muck, if he c/c you can fire on a lot of turns or get the free card, and if he c/r you can safely fold and not be in the spot on the turn. Best of luck.
love this line the best. def would like to see a c bet here, if he raise, fold! when we pick up the fd this makes for a good spot to double barrel, chking behind some to vary range and strategy. we can continue to show strngth as we have now picked up additional outs… if he decides to get tricky and raise/shoves we can get away confidently. hate calling that more than pot bet there on turn unless we're firing all rivers when chked too. chking back can never be option after turn call.
bjizz
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