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November 22, 2013
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Midstages of a live $500 buy-in tournament. I had been playing aggressively for the most part, stealing lots of small pots, and additionally had eliminated two short stacks by calling their all-ins light. One hand I had raised from mid-position with KQ and a 25bb stack had 3 bet all in with JJ. I called and hit a King on the flop. Later a 10BB stack had shoved from midposition and I called with K10. He had 45 and my King high held up. This allowed me to go from a 15K starting stack to 50K, but recently I had also been caught bluffing in a couple of recent hands. Given my light calls and getting called on a couple of bluffs I can only conclude that my image was terrible. However, given this if I picked up a strong holding I was looking to create a bigger pot than usual given that my opponents would put me on a wider range than I really had.
Blinds are 500/1000 with 100 antes and I had 35K stack, so I had 35bb.
Villain seemed to be a pretty average middle-aged player, not particularly tight nor loose. He had played a couple of pots where I believed he could have gotten away with a semi-bluff, but other than that he was pretty non-descript, pretty ABC but slightly looser than the average TAG. He had 30K so I barely had him covered. He raises in MP to 2500.
I pick up A
K
on the button and 3 bet him to 6K. My reasoning was that I was almost certainly ahead and if I could get him to commit himself I could get him to stack off with AQ, AJ, or KQ if he called and the flop came with an A or K. I was also planning to call a 4 bet shove. I also considered that there was some chance that my opponent would shove light, given my image, and I could snap him off if he had AQ/KQ. I didn't consider going all-in myself bc I would rather 3 bet and give my opponent the illusion of fold equity, but in retrospect that was an option to consider. I also didn't consider flatting bc I knew my image was so poor that if I 3 bet, my opponent would call with a dominated hand. Somewhat surprisingly, my opponent just calls. I immediately put him on something in the neighborhood of AQ/KQ because I believe he would have folded worse, or 4 bet shoved with a pocket pair.
The flop is 10
79 and my immediate thought is that is a good flop for my hand. I didn't put my opponent on a pocket pair in the hole and it is a hard flop for him to make a pair on. He checks to me and I bet 7K, not necessarily enough to commit me but enough to charge him for the draw. I expect him to fold a high percentage of the time if he is holding AQ or KQ.
Unexpectedly, my opponent shoves without hesitation. I think about this for a very long time because it is for essentially all my chips and all I have is Ace high. My immediate reaction is just to fold leaving myself with a 20BB stack to work with. However, long ago I decided that in order to learn I had to go with my read, and right or wrong it would be a learning experience. My read was that he started with a hand in the range of AJ, KJ+, or possibly QJs. This seems like the sort of hand he would be willing to call a small 3 bet with but not shove with. I also believe based on prior experience that this opponent would shove on a semi-bluff, which is a very common move with his size stack, given that he is almost committed. He could have suited cards or QJ. I also have to believe that if he is holding AQ that he thinks this is a reasonable flop for his hand and that he would shove thinking he could fold me out. Given this, his range are hands that I dominate, and draws that he is semi-bluffing with. It's possible that he has a pair like JJ but then I still have 6 outs. I have also made similar calls against other players in the past, and been correct, beating hands such as AQ and KQ.
Hero ????
November 22, 2013
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* In the title I meant draw-heavy board, idk why I said dry board. Basically there are two draws that I believe are in my opponent's range: QJ and the flush draw. I don't put him on a pair or set.
November 4, 2013
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I hate flops like this with AK. I almost always check them back and play the hand on the turn. I feel that a lot of turn cards will actually give you information about his range based on what he does with them. It's just that, given your image, this is the exact villain line I would take vs you with 88, JJ and nut draws. Combo draw is possible here too, with something like AJdd being probable. Maybe even A8dd. If he's bad like me, two pairs and other combo draws are possible, but most mid aged players won't play SC's OOP when 3 bet.
Unless you can give him some strange flush draws, I think this is a fold. I wish I could figure out how to run hands like this in ICMizer. I'll post the stove results given your range in another reply.
November 4, 2013
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This is actually kind of interesting. I've tried to narrow his range off quite a bit, considering you have shown strength twice, so I doubt he is shoving pure air here. I also don't think he ever plays AA or KK like this vs your image. It's probably a stretch to have QQ here.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
38,610 games 0.001 secs 38,610,000 games/sec
Board: Td 7d 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.010% 50.13% 01.88% 19355 726.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 47.990% 46.11% 01.88% 17803 726.00 { QQ-JJ, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, Ad8d, KQs, QdJd, AcQd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AsQd, AcJd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AsJd, KQo }
November 22, 2013
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Actually stove verifies that if I am correct in assessing my opponen'ts range then I should call here. The only question is whether or not my assessment of his range is accurate.
November 4, 2013
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Ya, I was somewhat shocked… I think this is a fair assessment of his range as well, I would only add 88 to it. I guess you could argue and say he would play a set like this, because I actually think he would.
In the case of adding 77-TT to his range, we go to 40% equity. So it makes a HUGE difference.
November 22, 2013
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I just don't see any possible way that a midpocket pair is in his range, given his stack, he has to shove preflop. My initial assessment was that I had somewhere in the neighborhood of 45% against his range so it's good that stove verifies that. Basically, if he doesn't have a pair (which I don't think that he does) he can basically only have a flush draw with overs (some of his overs being no good bc I have AK) or a QJ draw. Even after adding some pairs to his range, it has to be about a coin flip, and I have massive odds.
The only other consideration is that this is for nearly the entirety of my stack, and I don't have a pair, so it would be a terrible way to go out. Folding leaves me with 20BB. What do you think about that?
November 4, 2013
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Would it be safe to say that AT or ATs are probably also in his range since KJ and QJs are in it? I say this only because to range him at AJ+ seems slightly optimistic given the circumstances.
Would this even change much?
November 22, 2013
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derSchwartz said:
Would it be safe to say that AT or ATs are probably also in his range since KJ and QJs are in it? I say this only because to range him at AJ+ seems slightly optimistic given the circumstances.
Would this even change much?
That's my question. I just can't put him on a pocket pair given that he didn't shove pre flop. I specifically priced my 3bet to a size where yes he can call, but where he wouldn't have the implied odds to setmine. I also simply didn't put my opponent on A10. Calling a committing 3 bet with A10 is a very bad play imo. Maybe A10s? I know that in terms of equity, it doesn't make that much difference, but maybe he thinks suited is worth a call, but unsuited isn't. I also considered J10s. Other than that, I just don't see how he could have a pair. Given that I didn't put him on a preflop pair and that it is hard to make a pair on this flop I absolutely put him on some sort of draw. If I believed A10, J10, K10, K9, etc. was in his range for calling a 3 bet I would absolutely fold, but I can't put a relatively tight live player on that sort of range for calling a 3bet. I didn't actually put KJ or A10 in his range, but I put QJs in his range bc I think it is more likely that an opponent call with that sort of juicy suited connector than A10, which is much more likely to be dominated, and has much less drawing potential.
The other thing is that I recently made a similar big call and my opponent had showed up with KQ and my AK had held up. In Every Hand Revealed Gus Hansen also made a call in an even bigger pot where he believed his opponent was bluffing and Gus was right. I know that's being terribly results oriented but I felt there was a real chance that my opponent was just spewing with a hand I dominated.
A little birdie whispered in my ear that I should call and 90% of the time that little birdie is right….
My question is on a scale from maniac to standard, how reckless is a call here?
March 26, 2013
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I have looked up a couple of players recently online when I have been ck/raise shoved on having 3b preflop with similar sizing. Quite often they have shown up with hands like KJ / AT / QJ etc and had top pair.
It seems to be a more common move by players to combat light 3 betting where they do not like 4b jamming preflop. Whether it happens live or not as well depends on the player you're in against I guess but I would not dismiss the hands mentioned above from ranges for the purposes of calculations as I'm sure they will show up with those hands sometimes.
As played, would it be better to check back the flop here and evaluate the turn? I also do not think c-bet needs to be as much as 7k because if villain has a decent piece here then he is shoving I think whether you make it 1/3 pot or 1/2 pot. Maybe something to consider that makes the decision easier from a pot commitment perspective if he shoves.
These hands are always tricky spots when you have 20-22bbs or so left behind but calling cannot be too bad and neither can folding.
November 22, 2013
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Poking_Fun said:
I have looked up a couple of players recently online when I have been ck/raise shoved on having 3b preflop with similar sizing. Quite often they have shown up with hands like KJ / AT / QJ etc and had top pair.
It seems to be a more common move by players to combat light 3 betting where they do not like 4b jamming preflop. Whether it happens live or not as well depends on the player you're in against I guess but I would not dismiss the hands mentioned above from ranges for the purposes of calculations as I'm sure they will show up with those hands sometimes.
As played, would it be better to check back the flop here and evaluate the turn? I also do not think c-bet needs to be as much as 7k because if villain has a decent piece here then he is shoving I think whether you make it 1/3 pot or 1/2 pot. Maybe something to consider that makes the decision easier from a pot commitment perspective if he shoves.
These hands are always tricky spots when you have 20-22bbs or so left behind but calling cannot be too bad and neither can folding.
The reason why I didn’t check back is because I didn’t put the player on a pair but I very easily put him on some sort of draw. I didn’t want the flush draw to get there.
I’m going to spoil it and say that I called. I was pretty excited when villian showed two diamonds, then I looked closer and saw that villian showed up with K9, literally one of the worst possible hands for me that he could have been holding. From my standpoint, calling a 3 bet with a low suited King like that is horrible, I just didn’t put him on a hand that could have paired the board. But I left feeling that I had definitely missed played my hand.
Results oriented thinking or did I really misplay my hand?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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i think you're putting him on an overly narrow and optimistic range, and assuming that he'd play the way that you would or that you think he should. Let's assume Villain was dealt T9s pre-flop. What about his play so far would prevent him showing up with it here? He decides it's a pretty hand so he raises with it. Then he gets 3-bet. You might think of this as a shove or fold spot but that doesn't mean he will. He doesn't want to risk his life on just a draw but he knows he's getting a good price and that you have a wideish range so he decides to see the flop before committing all of his chips. None of this seems at all implausible to me, and I think the same logic applies to a ton of other suited connectors and maybe even AT, KT, QT, etc.
I wouldn't expect to have a lot of fold equity with a flop bet, and I don't think your hand is good enough to bet and call a shove, so I'd just check it back. Mostly I'm giving up on the hand but of course there's a chance you'll catch well. If you think about your whole 3-betting range, though, this is actually pretty close to the bottom on this flop, which makes it a fine candidate for giving up. You'll have overpairs and sets in your range, plus probably some suited connectors. Arguably this is a good bet-folding candidate but I don't know that I even want to have a bet-folding in this spot. With your image I think you'll get jammed on a lot, but I still don't think you should bet-call it off with AK.
November 22, 2013
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Yes, I’m pretty unhappy with my performance. Initially I thought that he simply had to be bluffing, but I see now that my assessment of his range was off. For some reason I just have a really hard time finding the “fold button”. I guess that's something I have to find myself lol.
May 23, 2013
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I don't think we can remove pairs from the villians range. You might not call a 3b pre with his stack and a pair, but there are plenty of players that have to see a flop to try and hit a set. Most people don't have a 4b jam range that is less then JJ+/AK and some people are more like KK+/AK
If you are playing against someone that likely won't be induced to 4b jam a weaker hand by a small 3 bet, then with 30bb I like 3 betting on the larger side. This helps define their hand more preflop and it can be followed up with a smaller c-bet.
Also going back a bit, you mentioned you called a 25bb reshove with KQ, that's a pretty big re-shove for live and all too often you'll run into AK and some times AQ here. Unless there was some dynamic that made you think the guy might be reshoving < KQ here it's got to be a fold.
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