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Topic Rating: 4 Topic Rating: 4 Topic Rating: 4 Topic Rating: 4 Topic Rating: 4 Topic Rating: 4 (2 votes) 
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weird spot on the turn, call/fold?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 27, 2015 - 10:18 pm
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#Game No : 717647083
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 717647083 *****
$75/$150 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 
Tournament #71806354 $22 + $2 - Table #15 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: LegitNit ( $5,073 )
Seat 2: uboot1987 ( $2,560 )
Seat 3: junkaj ( $5,955 )
Seat 4: liquidpoker1 ( $4,443 )
Seat 5: Exotix13 ( $3,568 )
Seat 6: london_ace ( $23,241 )
Seat 7: OleOlaSM ( $3,105 )
Seat 9: LudwikXIV ( $8,943 )
Seat 10: ineedustack ( $3,010 )
LegitNit posts ante [$20]
Exotix13 posts ante [$20]
london_ace posts ante [$20]
OleOlaSM posts ante [$20]
LudwikXIV posts ante [$20]
ineedustack posts ante [$20]
uboot1987 posts ante [$20]
liquidpoker1 posts ante [$20]
junkaj posts ante [$20]
Exotix13 posts small blind [$75]
london_ace posts big blind [$150]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to london_ace [ 9club, 3club ]
OleOlaSM raises [$300]
LudwikXIV folds
ineedustack folds
LegitNit folds
uboot1987 folds
junkaj folds
liquidpoker1 folds
Exotix13 folds
london_ace calls [$150]
** Dealing flop ** [ 2spade, 9spade, Tdiamond]
london_ace checks
OleOlaSM checks
** Dealing turn ** [ Tspade]
london_ace bets [$325]
OleOlaSM raises [$2,785]
london_ace folds
 
 
hey
 
 
no reads
 
 
I bet turn for value/protection ,  pretty sure v is going to bet flop with their overpairs and draws. The turn does not change much , and i think i'm going to ahead
of v check back range , hands which are marginal/air.  Now faced with a shove on the turn? i discount strong hands from their range which only leaves flush draws ott which they picked up ott
 
thoughts please?
 
cheers.
folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 27, 2015 - 10:28 pm
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btw my sizing on the turn was rather small, like just a bit less then 1/2 pot. Stacks are quite shallow here and villians range seemed rather weak hence why i bet small. i would have prefered if i had bet bigger ott given that there's a lot of bad river cards for us and to fold out hands that have decent equity. when I lead turn we could have Tx in our range , so it makes me wonder villians range must be rather strong here when they shove turn? what else could they have apart from flush draws?

 

anyhow if we did call the turn shove the only hands we are beating are flush draws and maybe a hand like a medium pocket pair with a spade which v has spazzed out with? i guess that's rather unlikely , i'd assume that v would call with their marginal hands ott.

BionicApe
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August 28, 2015 - 2:58 pm
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Yeah, strange line.  I would have to ask myself if the villain has any reason to suspect I have an inclination for discrediting monster hands when faced with a big over-bet like this.  I do, but not necessarily in a vacuum.  The fact that your big stack allows you to call off with relative impunity argues against a pure bluff though.

Really looks like a middle-pair, most likely with a spade, but not necessarily.  I can't fathom anyone not c-betting overcards there against a flat from the BB, but the jam on the turn does look like a play someone might make with overcards and a big spade.  Of course, the villain could easily have a better nine…

I'd be inclined to call, but wouldn't be vastly pleased about doing so.  Having about a billion big blinds behind at least cushions the blow a little if you're wrong.

joelshitshow
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August 28, 2015 - 7:29 pm
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In a $22 tournament I would probably just fold. You have 150 bigs and will probably find a better spot. It's easy to win pots by being aggressive with a stack like that, so if you run into resistance, just let it go.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 28, 2015 - 10:12 pm
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@bionic I don't think there's many 9x in their EP opening range , 99 for sure, though only so little combo's of those. I dunno maybe he does have a big pocket pair like Kings with a spade , i still think v would bet those on such a wet flop though.

BionicApe
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August 29, 2015 - 12:44 am
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You're right, the villain shouldn't have random 9s in his opening range, especially considering the blocker and his stack size, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.  'Easily' was a bit overstated, even so, 9x does fall into the category of hands that might make that sort of shove, where I just don't see anyone doing that with a full house or even a flush after thoughtfully taking a free card.

It doesn't make any sense to jam a monster and all the hands that might make that jam should've c-bet except for maybe middle pairs.

I've been folding almost all scenarios like this recently, but here, with a really deep stack I'd probably look him up.  It's a bit loose, but it's not without value in terms of table image and garnering some reasonably deep insight into an opponent.

As a general policy, I think it's better to fold these sorts of spots because they are usually hunting chimps like me, but you're just giving up buffer chips if you lose here.  I don't see the difference between 150bbs and 133bbs having any bearing on your overall tournament prospects and you set a very strong precedent for how players will treat you as long as you're at that table.  A quick note on all the players at the table may prove valuable in the future as well.

If you would be comfortable folding to a normal reraise then you should probably just fold to a big jam too.  If you wanted to occasionaly make an exception then this seems like a decent spot to do so.

In any case, I'm not convinced by his line and think there's a reasonable chance that you have the best hand.

GunnJD
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August 29, 2015 - 1:37 pm
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This is one of those spots where the villain probably did something weird on the flop that we can't really account for. 

 

Sets, Tx, and flushes are probably in his range. And the Ace of clubs of course, which perhaps is what he is doing this with.

 

He should be more worried about the flushes and Tx in our range. 

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 29, 2015 - 5:48 pm
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Do you reckon my small sizing (which was incorrect by me) induced v to shove with middle pairs which we have beat? They may have spazzed out with those. I really don't think Tx is in villians range , they probably would bet Top pair otf on this flop texture. I'm a big stack as well so i'm not to sure if v will be bluffing too much here which is  counterintuitivebecause he probably would just call with their mid pocket pairs not shove them right?. I dont put my tourney life at risk by making a call but he does however That don't mean he's not going to have a bluffing range on the turn,  they may very well have hands like K:Spade:Jheart: AspadeQdiamond in their range which we are ahead of. All in all I reckon this is a call and we have a decent ish bluff catcher. I reckon Aspade9club would be a better bluff catcher though.

BionicApe
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August 30, 2015 - 3:02 am
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I dunno, man.  It's a tough call to make and I think it would be difficult to argue that folding is at all wrong.  You're hardly married to your hand and the pot is small at 8bbs.  What you can't do, though, is always fold without consideration.

I think my decision here would entirely hinge on my knowledge of my opponent.  

If I don't recognize my opponent the more likely I am to fold because there's no value in obtaining deeper insight into their playstyle.  I'll give it the ol', “You want it that bad?  It's your's, buddy.”, and move on to the next hand.

Against someone that I recognize but don't know much about, I'm more inclined to call even though they are somewhat less likely to be as spurious as some random Joe.

Against these pseudo-'regs' there's not only value in understanding their play, but in deliberately misrepresenting my calling requirements.  These are the same players who are going to be looking for ways to exploit my play and having them know that I'm not always going to cave to a big overbet forces them to play a more standard game against me.

The more 'regs' at the table the more value I'm going to get out of the demonstration as well.

Of course, if I have a read on my opponent then that will dictate the course of action I take.

P.S.  Your bet on the turn is going to look stabby even if you make a pot-sized bet given that the pot is like 5.5bbs.  It might get a little bit more respect from some players, but with the ten not changing the board state your opponent was probably planning on jamming no matter how you sized the bet. 

Foucault

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August 30, 2015 - 6:44 pm
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Bionic,

I think you’re investing a lot of effort in worrying over factors that really aren’t very important at all. All this stuff you are saying about trying to get insight into your opponent’s playstyle or sending a message about how you are going to play – I don’t think these are factors that should pretty much ever affect your decisions. It seems to me like you are trying to use these things as a way to avoid finding a solution to the actual problem at hand.

In particular, I think when you say “I don’t see the difference between 150bbs and 133bbs having any bearing on your overall tournament prospects and you set a very strong precedent for how players will treat you as long as you’re at that table.” this is very misguided. If you entered a tournament with 10/20 starting stacks and everyone else got 3000 and you got 2660, would you really have no problem with that? Assuming you are all of equal skill, your equity in the tournament is about 90% of what theirs is. Again, it seems like you are just looking for an easy solution (“just call, you have lots of chips, what does it matter if you lose?”) rather than a correct one.

FWIW, I’d say that this is a fold in a true vacuum, meaning you really have no info about how your opponent will play and are just trying to build a balanced calling range. However, I think many of your opponents will not have balanced checkback/shoving ranges, and even knowing nothing about them I’d expect an unknown to show up with overs and a flush draw way way way more often than trips or a pocket pair, and I would call here.

I also think this should be a fold pre-flop. Even with shallow stacks and good odds, 93s just has very poor equity and equity realization vs a strong range, especially if you don’t feel comfortable making exploitive assumptions about your opponent.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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August 31, 2015 - 9:30 pm
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i agree that folding pre is ok given your reasons above. May i ask how you can build a balance calling range in this situation? 

florianm1
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September 2, 2015 - 10:00 am
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what i tried to build balanced calling range is the following:

1.) assign range to opponent

2.) calculate equity needed to call

3.) calculate which hands have this equity  vs his range assuming it would be checked down/all in 

4.) remove the very weakest part of this range

5.) construct your value 3betting range

6.) construct your bluff 3betting range. personally i would tend to have a more linear 3betting range compared to a polarized

6.) rest goes in calling range

 

mathew janda on cardrunners has some nice stuff for cash game.

 

dont know if the above mentioned approach is correct but seems logical to me

folding_aces_pre_yo
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September 2, 2015 - 6:43 pm
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oo right thanks , that does seem like a lot to figure out! cool

florianm1
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September 3, 2015 - 5:19 am
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well, yes but thats why you can only do it off the tables.

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