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November 22, 2013
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Pretty deep stacked.. i think it wsas a bit of a nitty fold but not sure… villain was 17/8 over ~90 hands, fold to 3b ~70-75%
May 6, 2013
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Seems fine. You could take a check call line on the flop.
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August 6, 2013
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Good fold, I don't think you beating much 🙂
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November 4, 2013
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Please keep in mind that I'm still relatively new at running Poker stove, so these numbers may not be correct.
Against his opening range of 8%, you have 63% equity on that flop. We get lucky and he shows us that he was holding an Ah, so without getting really complex, we are now 65% equity on the flop. On the turn it moves to 59%. That's assuming he just flats AA, which I doubt he ever does.
So while this looks like a horrible spot, it really isn't. You have to ask yourself what does he have that's really beating you here, and what is he likely to do on the river if you check/call his turn bet. He is likely to raise all Ax with a diamond on that flop. He's going to bet them on the turn as well when you check it to him. Once you call though, and the river bricks out, it gets extremely tough for him to bet AQ, AJ and even AK.
Without a question this looks like a scary spot, but if you can avoid getting stacks in, I don't see a reason to just insta fold. I'm curious what others have to say though. It's entirely possible i'm playing this spot wrong.
November 18, 2013
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tough spot as played I think its fine, stacks are deep enough so even if we are folding the best hand its a small mistake, better than making a large one and playing for stacks imo
Against his opening range 88+,ATs+,AJo+,JQs+ we're not doing too well even if he has KK or QQ with a diamond in his hand he could be going with this hand.
Alternate Line: Sometimes when oop I like to play a small pot so just calling pre could be an option, I really dont mind playing this hand multiway. We may also encourage the BB to make a move, if original villain folds we can jam, if he 4bets we can fold this deep. If the flop comes low like 972r or something we can donk repping a set or if flop comes paired we can try same play.
March 26, 2013
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Quite an interesting hand. The fact that we do not have a diamond as back up makes this difficult but it needs some thought about preflop ranges etc. Questions for me are:
1) what hands does villain 4b preflop – I think AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK and sometimes TT/AQ 4b preflop
2) what hands does villain call preflop – I think a lot of pairs, some suited connectors and maybe AJ/AQ etc.
Given those ranges, what hands would likely raise the flop as a min-bet? Well, if he has AA I think he either calls or raises bigger as the min-raise is likely to only keep in diamond draws or A/d combos plus it would mean 4 aces being out by flop so probably unlikely.
Hands like KK-JJ probably do not raise in this spot as they would be concerned about the A and have showdown value so could call for control. Even if they have a diamond in this spot they will probably not raise as they only get called / jammed on by better hands.
TT and 88 is a possibility here and I think villain would raise those hands and probably fold all other pairs. I also think with a set villain raises bigger to charge more if you have a diamond draw.
AJ-AK and KQdd could all be in his range I think but I would say AK would re-raise preflop most of the time and KQdd would surely call to try to get you to bet again so this min-raise by process of elimination looks very much like a flush draw plus maybe an A that we are ahead of such as AQ. Obviously, he can have stronger here but I really think the stronger hands either flat or raise bigger.
Working through the process here I think we are ahead a lot of the time on the flop and I think I might still 4bet all-in here. Occasionally we will be coolered but I think we get calls from AQ / AJ plus folds enough from villain to justify the risk. I don't actually like calling the flop as we are almost always going to face a bigger bet on the turn with the whole of his range so think I decide whether to go with it or not there and then probably erring on the side of going with it.
Not sure if that is bad or not but I just feel these min-raises on flops are full of rubbish a lot of the time.
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