Hey guys,
Just wondering if anyone can ever see a fold here given stack size. Board texture, opponents raise size & his range breakdown.
My thoughts when he check raises so big is that his hand looks like a combo draw more than anything else. He would most likely raise KK & JJ pre flop, I cant see a set of 44's raising so big on the flop. The only 2 hands that I felt were possibly was KJ & a slow played AA.
With our stack depth & the board having so many draws on it. Can we ever fold here? Opponents hud stats were 15/7 with a 1.3 3bet over 125 hands. With his 3bet so low I felt like KJ was definately possible here but still with the draws can we fold?
Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500/t5000 Blinds + t500 – 7 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
Maen Lein (BTN): BB = 22.1, t110388
raare01 (SB): BB = 32.9, t164314
domiN06 (BB): BB = 28.4, t142212
Ilya_Chel (UTG): BB = 17.9, t89575
prinzboldi (UTG+1): BB = 31.7, t158320
MuHHeT (MP): BB = 43.3, t216321
Hero (CO): BB = 23.1, t115405
Pre Flop: (t11000) Hero is CO with K Q
3 folds, Hero raises to t11000, Maen Lein calls t11000, 1 fold, domiN06 calls t6000
Flop: (t39000) 4 J K (3 players)
domiN06 checks, Hero bets t15900, Maen Lein folds, domiN06 raises to t50000, Hero raises to t103905 all in, domiN06 calls t53905
Turn: (t246810) 6 (2 players – 1 is all in)
River: (t246810) T (2 players – 1 is all in)
I don't think the villain has AK, AA, KK, QQ or JJ very often as he would 3bet pre – even though his 3bet % is so low it is only over 125 hands. KJ or 44 are definitely possible but I agree it looks more like some combo draw, or maybe even a naked flush draw. You are actually not doing all that well against his range here and so I don't love getting it in but think it would be a mistake not to, you started the hand with 23bbs and hit top pair with a good kicker. Gross spot for sure but I'm going with it.
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