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Weird ICM spot vs CL on the bubble
m@ddm@n
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November 13, 2012 - 8:44 am
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Ft and the exact money bubble.  Dude is very fishy and 29/12 over only 35 hands.  Hadn't open shoved before though.

In this case it's an obv call as it's only a $2.20 tourney with a $4 min cash but in general would it be a considered fold?

Full Tilt - $2 + $0.20|200/400 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 13.62 BB
MP+1: 11.87 BB
Hero (CO): 30.61 BB
BTN: 25.42 BB
SB: 8.39 BB
BB: 8.98 BB
UTG: 21.88 BB
UTG+1: 66.72 BB

MP posts ante 0.13 BB, MP+1 posts ante 0.13 BB, Hero posts ante 0.13 BB, BTN posts ante 0.13 BB, SB posts ante 0.13 BB, BB posts ante 0.13 BB, UTG posts ante 0.13 BB, UTG+1 posts ante 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1000.00) Hero has  Adiamond Kspade 

fold, [color=red]UTG+1 raises to 66.59 BB and is all-in[/color], fold, fold, [
 
packallama
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November 13, 2012 - 10:18 am
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In game, I would reshove with (TT+, AKo, AQs). I don't think he has QQ+ very often by shoving preflop, but I wouldn't expand my reshove range very much because he is in EP and ICM does play. We are 2nd in chips with several ~10bb stacks at the table which should make us call even tighter on the exact bubble. It is extremely fishy and spazzy for him to rip UTG. The low buy-in would affect my play and cause me to be looser because a min-cash is not too substantial and I think players spazz more frequently with weaker holdings.

duggs
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November 13, 2012 - 3:00 pm
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JJ+ AK imo, ICM also underestimates our edge looking at the other stacks, his shoving range is likely to be 77-1010 AQ AJ most of the time.

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StrangeFame
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November 13, 2012 - 10:07 pm
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duggs said:

JJ+ AK imo, ICM also underestimates our edge looking at the other stacks, his shoving range is likely to be 77-1010 AQ AJ most of the time.

99+ AQs AKo imo

Richard
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November 13, 2012 - 10:14 pm
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Almost always AK, often JJ, sometimes TT or AQ and very rarely 99 imo.

duggs
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November 14, 2012 - 2:09 am
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definitely merit in capping his range imo, i mean AA/KK arent afraid to play post flop, its going to be hands they never want to fold but dont want to be flatted with ie, AJ/AQ 77-1010 imo? maybe JJ. I based this largely on buyin but dont have a ton of experience at this level so may be way off

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StrangeFame
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November 14, 2012 - 2:53 am
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duggs said:

definitely merit in capping his range imo, i mean AA/KK arent afraid to play post flop, its going to be hands they never want to fold but dont want to be flatted with ie, AJ/AQ 77-1010 imo? maybe JJ. 

This … Plus the fact we have two blockers to monsters… Just takes out so many strong Ax combos… 

 I'm snapping w/99 AQ here in a 2dolla holla mtt 

duggs
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November 14, 2012 - 4:25 am
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im folding 99, since its a disaster in terms of tournament equity when we bust v 1010/JJ AQ AK and we dominate virtually nothing. 1010 is closer JJ is a easy call imo

m@ddm@n
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November 14, 2012 - 5:16 am
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Next question is, at what stakes would anyone fold this in this exact situation (if at all) with a strong read that this opponent is very fishy? Bearing in mind this is the final table and the exact $ bubble.
Is it worth the risk with decent min cashes available?

duggs
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November 14, 2012 - 1:12 pm
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m@ddm@n said:

Next question is, at what stakes would anyone fold this in this exact situation (if at all) with a strong read that this opponent is very fishy? Bearing in mind this is the final table and the exact $ bubble.
Is it worth the risk with decent min cashes available?

wouldnt fold anywhere in theory. it just depends more on your percieved edge etc

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StrangeFame
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November 15, 2012 - 1:26 am
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m@ddm@n said:

Next question is, at what stakes would anyone fold this in this exact situation (if at all) with a strong read that this opponent is very fishy? Bearing in mind this is the final table and the exact $ bubble.
Is it worth the risk with decent min cashes available?

errmm, i dunno maybe i find a fold if this was FT of some small stakes tourney w/huge field like the sunday storm (something along those lines). So many factors would have to line up for me even consider folding tho..
Hard to go wrong if you just get it in w/AK everytime

runningouts
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November 16, 2012 - 9:36 pm
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The only difference I see with the tournament buy in is that this tournament is probably softer than a higher buy in and so you can pass up more marginal +ev spots. You can definitely choose to ignore ICM because of the stakes but just calling because it's micro stakes seems absurd to me.

 

So I would stove against whatever you think his likely range is, eg:

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	52.955%  	44.25% 	08.70% 	     491021952 	 96548610.00   { AKo }
Hand 1: 	47.045%  	38.34% 	08.70% 	     425453820 	 96548610.00   { JJ-77, AJs+, AQo+ }

 

So in this case we are 53% against his range with slightly better than even odds. Now just decide if this is a big enough edge to take. When you call and win you have a big stack and can maybe pick up chips by applying pressure (depending on how the table is playing), if you lose you are out.

Personally I would pass up here expecting to find better spots.

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StrangeFame
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November 16, 2012 - 10:09 pm
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runningouts said:

The only difference I see with the tournament buy in is that this tournament is probably softer than a higher buy in and so you can pass up more marginal +ev spots. You can definitely choose to ignore ICM because of the stakes but just calling because it's micro stakes seems absurd to me.

 

What about the likelyhood of micro stakes players just spewing off here because they're degens or shoving incorrectly w/KJ because they are riding a rush or wtv? Regardless what 2 cards villain is holding here, this shove is hella-bad. If he is capable of making this mistake, it's likely he's making several more mistakes (hand selection when open jaming). How are going to feel when he flips over KTs or AJo here?

You (none of us) are good enough or skilled enough to pass up these spots. Folding becasue it's micro stakes seeems absurdly nitty to me.  

runningouts said:

 

Personally I would pass up here expecting to find better spots.

Save the fairytales for bedtime stories. Again, we aren't good enough to pass up these spots. Better ones maybe not arrive, instead we'll often wait it out and move up the pay ladder getting 6th-3rd like a sucker.

runningouts
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November 16, 2012 - 10:43 pm
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If you are saying that because this is micro stakes then he can be wider etc then yes that's fine. My point is that you still have to work out (long hand or estimate at the time) how you are doing against his range and base your decision on that. Just getting it in purely because of the buy in is a mistake in my opinion.

If we are (as in my example) a 53% favourite against his range then I stand by my comment that I would pass it up. We are in very good shape here, why basically slightly better than a flip at this stage when losing it guarantees we are out the tournament, winning it doesn't double our cev?

This isn't fairytales Brent, it is trying to estimate our edge against the field and from that working out which spots we should take and which we should pass. This is one we can certainly pass if we choose.

duggs
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November 16, 2012 - 11:59 pm
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john i think AJo deserves to be included and id estimate that those 9 combos make a fair difference. id also discount JJ and 77 and i think that makes it a reasonably clear call

runningouts
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November 18, 2012 - 6:33 am
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hey Tom,
so with your range we are a 59% favourite:
	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied
Hand 0: 	41.232%  	31.65% 	09.58% 	     331699752 	100384446.00   { TT-88, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 	58.768%  	49.19% 	09.58% 	     515461404 	100384446.00   { AKo }
 
in which case I agree that this would be a clear call. So long as we base our decision here on how we fare against his range I don't mind!
 
OK, so here is how we do against the 2 ranges with some hands.
 
                      88    99    TT   JJ    AQo   AQs   AKo   AKs
88-TT, AJ0+, AJs+     47%   54%   61%  66%   47%   50%   59%   61%
77-JJ, AQo+, AJs+     46%   53%   60%  67%   42%   45%   53%   55%
 
So we should fold 88 against either range, 99 is a spot where we need to estimate our edge, the value of our stack, value of winning/losing if we call etc. 
TT+ we should call. AQ we should fold against both ranges. AK we should call against the first range, against the second we need to decide again.
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