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(1 votes) 
March 28, 2014
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SB: $6K
BB (hero): $5.5K Qh 7h
UTG: $3K
CO: $4K
SB posts $150 ($5,850 left).
BB (hero) posts $300 ($5,200 left).
UTG calls $300 ($2,700 left).
HI folds.
CO calls $300 ($3,700 left).
BTN folds.
SB calls $150 ($5,700 left).
BB (hero) checks ($5,200 left).
Flop (pot: $1,200) – Jd 7d 9c
SB bets $600 ($5,100 left).
BB (hero) calls $600 ($4,600 left).
UTG is all-in $2,700 ($0 left).
CO folds ($3,700 left).
SB folds ($5,100 left).
UTG (villain 2) range for 10bb early limp: any pair, Axs, KQs, JTs.
Total Pot: $5,100
Board: Jd 7d 9c
BB (hero) has Qh 7h – $2,100 to call into a $5,100 pot (2.4 to 1 pot odds?)
January 5, 2015
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“I’m crushed with 77+, A7, A9, AJ, JT (12 hands)”
How did you get only 12 hands here? I am confused…
Seems like a lot more than 12?
The only hands you are ahead of the total draw hands really, unless he gets scrappy with 78 or 76…but AI without a draw even here seems off. Id put him on at least a draw even if he has a pair that you beat. And there are a ton of draw hands that you are not even a favorite against. You need to be ahead 30% here (and this is not taking into account ICM considerations). I think a lot depends on how the other stacks at other table are looking. This spot is a gamble. Which is fine…but is the bubble? Or is it close to bubble? Or what? I feel like I am missing something?
March 28, 2014
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I do believe it's a fold. however, I want to fully understand the math behind it. when you're calculating hands is it every combination of A9s for example? how would you count the hands up? I also agree that if i'm ahead it's marginal with the type of draws he shoves here. how would you calculate the 30% ahead? I'm a guppy and appreciate the anaylisis. thank you.
One more player busts, we're at the final table.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Yes you have to take the weighted average of your equity against his range. So basically you put him on a range, determine what % of his range each hand represents, determine how much equity you have against that hand, multiply, then add that altogether to get your total equity. The over-the-table way to do it is just to see that you are a lot further behind the hands that beat you than you are ahead of the hands you're beating, and there are a lot more of the former, so it's probably a fold. In fact I'd fold to the SB bet the first time around. Just because you've seen him stab a few times doesn't mean he is bluffing 100% of his air, not to mention that even a lot of air will have good equtiy against you on the flop and there are still people to act behind you.
March 28, 2014
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Thanks for the response Andrew. I will practice the math off the table. I've recently discovered your podcast and listen on my commute everyday. It's funny, I was thinking if you and Nate were reviewing the hand, you would point out the first mistake calling light with many players behind, completely agree.
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