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Weighing villain's ranges vs pot odds on post flop decision in a live tournament.

dunnoJAX

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March 29, 2015 - 12:48 pm

This is a live 2 table tourney prior to final table bubble. table is 6 handed with 11 players left in tourney. $8,100 ave stack, 150/300 blind level.

Table is playing loose/passive (high blind limpers) and SB strategy is to stab at pots (wet or dry boards) after flops. This strategy seems to work as table is weak/tight looking to take flops and make final table. SB is on my right. My image is tight agro at this point in tourney.

$150/$300+0, 6 players

SB: $6K
BB (hero): $5.5K Qh 7h
UTG: $3K
CO: $4K

SB posts $150 ($5,850 left).
BB (hero) posts $300 ($5,200 left).
UTG calls $300 ($2,700 left).
HI folds.
CO calls $300 ($3,700 left).
BTN folds.
SB calls $150 ($5,700 left).
BB (hero) checks ($5,200 left).

Flop (pot: $1,200) – Jd 7d 9c
SB bets $600 ($5,100 left).
BB (hero) calls $600 ($4,600 left).
UTG is all-in $2,700 ($0 left).
CO folds ($3,700 left).
SB folds ($5,100 left).

SB (Villain 1) likes to take stabs at pots post flop on tight passive table (i call. we have a history, when I call/raise I usually have best vs Villain 1)
UTG (villain 2) range for 10bb early limp: any pair, Axs, KQs, JTs.

I see V2 with a polarized range. I'm crushed with 77+, A7, A9, AJ, JT (12 hands). His air/draw hands are 22 – 66 (unlikely air with bet and call in front); A2d – A6d, A8d, ATd, AQd – AKd, KQd (10 draw hands)

Total Pot: $5,100
Board: Jd 7d 9c
BB (hero) has Qh 7h – $2,100 to call into a $5,100 pot (2.4 to 1 pot odds?)

My question is, how do I weigh his range to make the most profitable decision in this spot? Knowing this ahead of time, will help me plan my hand better when seeing a 10BB stack i can range limp UTG.

I'm not confident I'm thinking about this correctly. I've been working on “ranging” my opponents (Andrew's Theory vids) and this seemed like an interesting spot. I see a lot of over bet shoves post flop with flush/str8 wet boards.

Thanks in advance for any feedback, including improvements to posting live HH's.

wager9

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March 29, 2015 - 4:49 pm

“I’m crushed with 77+, A7, A9, AJ, JT (12 hands)”

How did you get only 12 hands here? I am confused…
Seems like a lot more than 12?

The only hands you are ahead of the total draw hands really, unless he gets scrappy with 78 or 76…but AI without a draw even here seems off. Id put him on at least a draw even if he has a pair that you beat. And there are a ton of draw hands that you are not even a favorite against. You need to be ahead 30% here (and this is not taking into account ICM considerations). I think a lot depends on how the other stacks at other table are looking. This spot is a gamble. Which is fine…but is the bubble? Or is it close to bubble? Or what? I feel like I am missing something?

dunnoJAX

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March 29, 2015 - 11:47 pm

I do believe it's a fold. however, I want to fully understand the math behind it. when you're calculating hands is it every combination of A9s for example? how would you count the hands up? I also agree that if i'm ahead it's marginal with the type of draws he shoves here. how would you calculate the 30% ahead? I'm a guppy and appreciate the anaylisis. thank you.

One more player busts, we're at the final table.

Foucault

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March 30, 2015 - 2:02 am

Yes you have to take the weighted average of your equity against his range. So basically you put him on a range, determine what % of his range each hand represents, determine how much equity you have against that hand, multiply, then add that altogether to get your total equity. The over-the-table way to do it is just to see that you are a lot further behind the hands that beat you than you are ahead of the hands you're beating, and there are a lot more of the former, so it's probably a fold. In fact I'd fold to the SB bet the first time around. Just because you've seen him stab a few times doesn't mean he is bluffing 100% of his air, not to mention that even a lot of air will have good equtiy against you on the flop and there are still people to act behind you.

dunnoJAX

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March 30, 2015 - 7:39 pm

Thanks for the response Andrew. I will practice the math off the table. I've recently discovered your podcast and listen on my commute everyday. It's funny, I was thinking if you and Nate were reviewing the hand, you would point out the first mistake calling light with many players behind, completely agree.

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