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December 24, 2013
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Hey guys, this is near the bubble a $33 with maybe 6k in the prizepool. I chose to limp this spot because I felt the co or btn would attack a limp with a wide range (think down to like A2o, K7s etc) being ip on the bubble. I don't have many limps in my game at all, but occasionally throw them in in an attempt to mess with opponents games after the fact. Basically, I didn't want to raise/4bet ship and I felt a 3b was likely to come between the three players with chips to do so. I think maybe I'd get 3b by all pairs, suited connectors, most Ax's between all of them, lots of broadway. Because of that, I thought I'd take a different line to throw those high 3b %'s off. I'm dancing between limp/shoving and limp/calling with raise over cbets on lots of boards.
WPN, 600/1,200 blinds, 120 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager – The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. SB: 55,816 (46.5 bb) BB: 48,432 (40.4 bb) UTG+2: 22,865 (19.1 bb) MP1: 66,325 (55.3 bb) MP2: 20,240 (16.9 bb) Hero (MP3): 35,632 (29.7 bb) CO: 10,244 (8.5 bb) BTN: 29,252 (24.4 bb) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 88
3 folds, Hero calls 1,200, 3 folds, BB checks Flop: (3,960) 8
2
December 24, 2013
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so basically I want to see what everyones thoughts are here on this turn. I don’t think I can ck back this turn, as I still get value from draws, I potentially get ck/raises from draws, value out of QJ TJ Q8 Q9 QT. He has pretty much 22 alone in terms of sets.
If his ck/raise range is only 22 and T9, I have 33% equity and get to see the river. If he has T9 alone, I have 23% equity and get to see the river. In game, I really quickly thought that I have enough equity to draw to a boat, so I’m glad I posted this. It’s made me look it up. Okay so yeah, I guess the optimal line is to call and fold (leaving ourselves 10bb in case anyones missed it) if we don’t boat up. If we boat up, we get the remaining 10bb because no one’s good enough to fold (as evident by the fact that I tanked river lol, still knew I was right though and folded). So that’s near 7:1 on our money to draw, meaning we get a cool 5% profit by making this call. Anyone not like my math here?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Mostly I don't like your flop raise size. You aren't giving him much of a decision with a J or a draw. What was your target?
September 14, 2014
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andrew …which sizing would you go for otf – 5-6k?
@VoxPopuli your target here should be AJ but that's unlikely since v would of raise with that pre.. which now leaves hands like KJ/JQ i guess most players will raise with these pre as well so that would leaveweak jx in his range and draws.
i don't think you have much of a value target …though, v has shown that he's intrested in his hand. He could have draws but if he has those he ain't going anywhere so i think we should allow v to semi bluff with those or with air and to value bet with worse hands.
The pot is going to be quite large relative to the stacks on the turn…do u reckon slow playing may be better then raising flop? since if v has draws he ain't likely going to fold these anyhow…so we may as well let him bet these we're likely to get stacks in once he makes that bet on the turn since the pot would be already large.
December 24, 2013
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Foucault said:
Mostly I don't like your flop raise size. You aren't giving him much of a decision with a J or a draw. What was your target?
My targets are 8x, Jx, and draws. I'm actually confused what you mean by your second sentence. He needs 26% equity to continue profitably, and unless I'm mistaken in my thoughts here, there will always be a bet on the turn, so he's paying for one card and is making a -ev call. If he continues with draws and Jx, his range has around 20% equity. The draws alone have around 27% equity. Do you mean he's getting the price he needs so my bet becomes neutral and doesn't do much? I'm curious now what you think would be better. Calling and hoping we get barrels (I don't really like this line as I think it's faulty to assume we will AND it lets him set the price- this doesn't seem bad for us on the surface, but I can see it being problematic); Raising bigger to try to induce a mistake with his draws (I guess calling would be one of them, shoving would be another).
November 4, 2013
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Are you assuming the only hand he ever raises the turn with is T9? It's possible that I'm missing something, I've been working nights lately so my brain is cooked….
Barring disasterous rivers, why are we folding a set here? He has more hands than just T9 that he raises the turn with. Mostly all the QXhh hands plus QJ/J8/J2/82/22, as well as spazzes with AJ/KJ/maybe JT.
We can't assume that he's going to raise AQ/AJ here pre. You never limp(as you said), and all of a sudden you are limping from MP with an 8.5BB stack behind you. Seems odd, and gives SB/BB no reason to be bloating a pot OOP without a monster.
From a GTO standpoint, what can we really ever have in our range that's better than 88 here? Why aren't we shoving what should be pretty much the nuts in our range on this turn, when BB can really have pretty much anything that hits this board? Maybe this is a huge leak of mine that I need to plug, because I'm pretty much always shoving this turn when he x/r me.
November 18, 2013
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I'm with High Stakes Shark. Why are you assuming his check / raise is strictly for value? There seem to be a number of semi-bluffing hands that could take this line. You are also near the bubble which gives him added leverage if he wants to bluff. With two flush draws on the board he could easily have more draws in his range. If he called your flop raise with hearts any hands containing the 9h or Th picked up equity and could make a play. Similarly Jxdd could take this line with the added backdoor outs, Since the pot was limped, he has more 2 pair combinations in his range than usual, although he may not attempt a check/raise with all of them.Depending how aggressively he plays his draws, you may even be a favorite.
January 10, 2015
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You say you tank folded the river… What was the river? For what it's worth, I would've got it in on the turn.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I think you want to raise more like 9 – 10K. What I mean by not giving him a decision is that assuming you sometimes raise bluffs/draws/weaker made hands, he has a pretty trivial decision not to fold any decent draw/top pair. I also think you're raising range in general would like to be able to jam turn and won't mind getting jammed on on flop, which a larger raise would set up.
To those asking why he's folding, I assume he's trying to exploit a possible sizing tell, that Villain would have check-shoved weaker made hands or draws, and that the small c/r will only be the nuts. That's often true, but an expensive misread when it's off, so use with caution.
December 24, 2013
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yah im making an exploitative adjustment here. this guys playing style didnt involve bluffs with this kind of line and the typical player here with have T9 pretty much every time. the river completed the flush, and i folded. he showed T9dd.
November 4, 2013
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The river completing the flush makes it a pretty normal fold. I'd be careful with the thinking of the fact he showed up with T9 though, don't get caught in a confirmation bias. I agree that players definitely show up with that here, but I don't think all players taking this line have all the time, or even half the time. If they do, poker is far from dead.
December 24, 2013
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Yah the river making it a flush makes it even easier, but I was truly boating up or folding regardless if that hit. Look at that line. Do you think an otherwise fishy straightforward villain will have Qxhh here? In my mind, I think they're going to just resume leading because they don't like to ck/call big bets with bad hands and it's still just top pair on that board where they're confused and think I have AA or KK a lot, even with a flush draw. I think villains are more likely to try and set their price if they happen to backdoor a flush draw here. Do you disagree with that assumption? I truly thought this was like nuts 100% of the time, but obviously I don't want to see monsters everywhere. I never commented on it before, but we can't have anything better in our range gto speaking. It would truly be an exploitative adjustment we make because of villain's line and sizing that says to me “i has a straight here draw to your better hand i guess” If he has flush draws, two pair, then yah I'd still be dominant in equity and would get it in, but idk. I thought it was just a straight and saw a straight. I don't want to bias myself because I saw it.
November 4, 2013
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I can't disagree with your assumptions. I guess I get caught up on the “fishy” tag, because to me, a fish here is definitely going to have two pairs in his range, as well as Qxhh. A fish is also going to raise a lot more with the nuts on the turn and two flush draws out there. He does block the DD draw, but still. His isn't that strong if you have like AJdd, which is very likely priced in (can't math right now, sorry).
Honestly, any player who only ever has T9 here is going to get exploited very badly. It makes it an easy snap fold for us. He is very likely making the mistake by not properly balancing out his range in this spot, which is a spot we actually will find ourselves in a lot of the time.
As for the bias, you are aware of what I was trying to say, so I don't think you really need to worry about it too much. I just know a lot of my friends are always like… He has to have XX in this spot, so i'm folding, and when I try to explain the V can have more hands, they always say no – he rolled over XX so you're an idiot Onetime. Confirmation bias is a dangerous thing. At the end of if, you applied your read, and got away from a hand I'm probably paying him off with. As you said, we can never have better here, so I'm calling off if only purely from the GTO standpoint.
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