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Was my thinking wrong folding AK?
johnnyballer1
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December 4, 2013 - 12:20 am
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Carbon Poker, about 45 or so people left in a 2.5k guarunteed nightly $5. 81 got paid so we were well into the money.

Blinds are 1250/2500 ante 250

 

Villian 1- about 110k

Villian 2- 65k

Me- 93k

 

Had only been at the table for about 15 minutes and in that time i didnt see anyone get out of line and i had been pretty standard, think i won an uncontested pot.

 

So Villian 1 is utg and raises to 6625, it folds around to me and i reraise to 13999. SB folds and Villian 2 is in the BB and thinks for a while and jams 65k all in. Villian 1 thinks for a while and folds. It comes back to me and i go in the tank trying to figure out what he has. A week ago I would have snap called, but since joining this site i am trying to think on a higher level and i just felt that with a utg raise by a deep stack who hadnt been too active, and a reraise by me who hadnt been too active, what is he shoving with? I think he folds 8s and below, i think he MAY shove aq but im either flipping or way behind a lot. And when i fold i still have 80k which is 32 bbs.

 

Im new to this site so im sorry if i didnt explain it correctly or if im a donk and its an easy decision. Thanks.

WackyJuan
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December 4, 2013 - 2:15 am
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Johnny,

I think that your fold is just fine.  Like you said, you've still got plenty of blinds to give you lots of play, and you can continue in the tourney and have lots of room to manuever with 32bb's.

BUT, if you would've called his ai, you would've been left with 11bb's, and you can play the ai/fold game with this for quite a few rounds.  I would put his cold 4b shove range as this:

77+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo

With this range, your equity is 60%, definitely good enough to justify calling the shove.

Before your 3bet, what was your plan if the original raiser shoved on you (or just reraised)?  If you didn't have a plan, (fold or call or reraise), then your bet maybe wasn't thought out enough.  You need to have a plan each time you bet or call, and I would recommend that you verbalize this as you play, “I'm raising here to get value out of worse, and if he shoves/raises I will _______.”  Also, it sounds as though you were on the BTN.  Did you have a plan for an SB or BB reraise?  It ended up happening, and preparing for these possible scenarios will help you avoid nasty surprises and bouts of doubt like you faced here.

Peace Out,

Wacky

icantmtt
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December 4, 2013 - 3:08 am
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I'm snap calling this all day, if he wins then meh nh, if we win we set ourselves up for a nice deep run into the final table

$5 tourny, not giving BB credit for monster, rather hand he cant let go of with 20ish BB's 77+,AQs+,

WizardZur
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December 4, 2013 - 7:53 am
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I call but not because I think I'm ahead.  With his all-in, there is now about 90K in the pot.  You have to call 51K more.  Even a NIT has to call with those odds.  Even if he has KK specifically, and you knew it, you would still consider calling due to the lucrative odds.  The only hand that would be obviously horrible for you is AA, but you can't just always assume your opponent has aces.  My perception of your opponents range is JJ+ and AK for the chop, with some non-zero amount of funky hands that you dominate that he shoved with as a bluff bc he thought it would look strong.  In fact, I think a players jams as much as 10% of the time here with junk as a bluff.  Windmill, fist bump your buddy, snap call imo.

DannyN13

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December 6, 2013 - 2:52 pm
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Snap call and it's not even close. His ripping range here is something like 77+, AJs+AQo you just need to take this spot to win tournaments.

OneTime1Time
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December 6, 2013 - 3:14 pm
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I know your exact feeling here, because it seems Villain just always holds/never shows up with AQ… but the range Danny posted is very close to the range a lot of players will have here. Even if he is close to the range Wiz posted, this is still a snap call. 

 

I struggled with this exact type of play for a long time, until I just gave in to the fact that skill will only get you so far in tournaments. If you want to run deep/win, you are going to need luck to be on your side.

theginger45

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December 6, 2013 - 9:14 pm
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Time to do some math! I suspect this is a very easy call but just to be sure, let's work it out.

 

Assuming you're 9-handed, there's 6k in the pot preflop.

6000+6625+13999+65000 = 91624 in the pot once the BB shoves all-in.

65000-13999 = 51001 to you to call his shove.

51001+91624 = 142625 is the pot to be won once we call.

51001/142625 = 0.36, so we need 36% equity to call.

Even vs a range of {KK+, AKo, AKs}, AKo has 37% equity, and virtually no-one is that tight in any spot, so this is a clear call. Against the range that Danny gave we have 48% equity, so even if he was a bit tighter and you took out hands like 77 and AJs, we're still good.

Hands like 88 and AQo would be a call here too, and even KQs if we decided to 3bet that. However, we only have 33% or so with AJo, so that one's a fold.

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