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Want situation advice: modest overpair on flop with low cards
cfarmerga
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October 26, 2015 - 6:33 pm
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This just happened, so I thought I’d ask here for recommendations. It’s a situation that I feel like I should be able to make more money at, or at least feel more comfortable in. In general, it’s having a decent but not premium pair in the blinds in a raised pot, then having a flop with low cards that aren’t likely to have hit any of the villains.

This particular hand is from a $10 doubleup on Bovada. Not a MTT, but since it was one of the first hands in the doubleup, it approximates an MTT as much as it ever would.

Stacks are all around 1500. Blinds are 10/20.

Hero in BB is dealt Td Ts.

Preflop UTG+1 raises to 60.Button calls. I call.

Flop is 4c2d7d. UTG+1 checks. Button bets 140.

In this specific position, I almost always have the best hand here, minus occasional flopped sets, and my hand value is disguised since I just called the flop from the BB. My main question is about optimizing value in cases like this.  In this case I min-raised, rationalizing that if either villain had any part of the flop or a diamond draw they would call, and since the stacks in these are low to start with, with the raise it makes it easier to get the stacks all in when the board stays low or I hit a 10.

UTG+1 folds. Button calls the min raise.

Turn is Qd. I am concerned about the diamond, but I think if I check, button probably will bet and I will probably want to call anyway. I bet 300, and button folds.

My line of questioning isn’t really all about this specific hand, but more about how to approach this kind of flop situation for value when the opponents are heavy on overcards, and not only in the shorter-stacked doubleup context but in a deeper-stacked early MTT environment too.  Also, more specifically, in this hand would it have been better to just call the flop bet to increase the chances that UTG+1 calls along too? I didn’t expect button’s nearly pot-size flop bet to be a total bluff, since there were two others in the pot and that’s fairly rare in these games. Finally, betting the turn was confusing. I think I could have rationalized a bet or a check here against a random unknown. I elected to bet and probably would have folded to a shove here, but that thinking makes me want to re-evaluate the benefits of check-calling.

 

Thanks!

Foucault

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October 27, 2015 - 11:15 am
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Good things to be thinking about. If you haven’t seen my Getting Paid series yet, I’d suggest that as a starting point for how to think through this. If you have seen it, I’d suggest rewatching, as I don’t see any discussion here of what your value target was.

The first thing to think about is whether you want to play for your stacks on the flop and/or on the majority of turns. I think it’s borderline in this spot, but I might be underestimating the willingness of a $10 player to stack off with worse. If yes, check-raising is fine. Otherwise, I’d check-call.

I’d like to see you think through the advantages and disadvantages of bet-folding vs check-calling the turn. You just say “if I check, button probably will bet and I will probably want to call anyway” as if that settles the matter, but it seems entirely possible to me that you’d rather check-call. 

By the way, this is a somewhat specific spot, because of the fact that the button is the one doing the betting. If it were the PFR betting the flop, I’d say k/c is much better than k/r because of how many better overpairs are in his range. Just something to keep in mind because you’re asking about “this kind of flop situation” in general.

cfarmerga
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October 27, 2015 - 1:28 pm
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Thanks for the feedback.

I have watched your getting paid series, but it’s been a few months now. I feel like I was value targeting reasonably on the flop, thinking I could get calls from AK-AJ, KQ, 88-99, A7, and random diamonds which I am ahead of and most of which would have called my flop raise. Maybe that’s not terribly specific, but I feel like all of those hands would act similarly here in this case on the flop.

The turn is different, and you rightly point out that I didn’t have a specific target in mind that takes into account the Qd on the turn.

Looking at it now, I think my turn bet is not as good, because he’s far less likely to call with hands that I am ahead of. He still might call with 88-99 or with the naked Ad, but everything else he calls with beats me, like sets or flushes or AQ-KQ. I also think I may have poisoned the well with my flop check-raise in that he might now be less likely to bet the turn thinly if checked to, so I lost some possible value there. So, now I think that maybe the check-raise was ok if I am seeking just one street of value, but it made it harder to get more after that.

As for the turn action, I think my bet was part value and part blocking bet, which I suppose really means that I didn’t have a good plan for it, and thinking that I probably have the best hand is not always a good reason to bet. I think check-calling a reasonable size bet is probably a better choice for me since several factors (my check-raise and the turn diamond) have reduced his speculative calling range and eliminated most hands worse than mine. I think it’s reasonable to go into bluff catching mode now with my tens and one diamond and re-evaluate the river.

Thanks again for your help thinking through these nuances.

Radriguez
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October 27, 2015 - 7:29 pm
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I like the turn bet. In the low stakes MTT’s I play in, the button can call very wide and often be sticky on the flop with any piece at 75BB deep. You say that his turn range has gotten narrower but you could be looking at a lot of speculative low card hands like 35s, 56s, 67s, etc that have a low pr. +diamond or straight possibility. I see players who love to call on B with these type of hands.. I wouldn’t want to give them free cards and they might peel the turn bet. I would fold to a reraise there and feel ok about it. But I play pretty fishy low stakes tourneys FWIW..

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